All posts by fletcher@cijeurope.com.

Polish Consumer Spending Continues to Grow, but Retail Channels Show Diverging Trends

Consumer spending in Poland increased in April 2026, although the overall growth masked significant differences between retail channels, according to data from the Retail Institute. The analysis covers more than 500 million monthly transactions across over 2,050 retail properties, shopping streets and e-commerce platforms in 320 cities, representing approximately 40 percent of all transactions conducted in Poland.

Total consumer spending across all channels rose by 4.7 percent year-on-year in April. The number of transactions increased by 1.7 percent, while the number of shoppers grew by 2.3 percent.

E-commerce remained the fastest-growing retail channel in terms of customer activity. Although total online spending declined by 1.6 percent compared with April 2025, the number of online shoppers increased by 18.6 percent and transaction volumes rose by 16.8 percent. At the same time, the average online transaction value fell by 15.8 percent, suggesting that consumers are increasingly using digital channels for everyday purchases rather than primarily for larger, planned transactions.

Physical retail formats experienced mixed results. Retail parks recorded a 1.4 percent decline in spending and a 1.1 percent decrease in the number of shoppers. Shopping centres saw spending fall by 3.4 percent, while footfall declined by 3.2 percent. However, both formats reported increases in average transaction values, rising by 1.1 percent in retail parks and 2.9 percent in shopping centres. Spending per customer also increased, indicating that while fewer consumers visited these destinations, those who did spent more.

High streets were the only physical retail channel to post clear growth. Spending increased by 2.7 percent year-on-year, while the number of shoppers rose by 1 percent. According to Retail Institute, the results suggest that convenience and proximity continue to play an important role in consumer purchasing decisions.

Anna Szmeja, President of Retail Institute, said the data point to a market increasingly characterised by customer segmentation rather than broad-based growth.

“Shopping centres are losing part of their mass-market traffic but are retaining customers with greater purchasing power and a stronger intention to buy,” she said. “For property owners and managers, this suggests that future success may depend less on rebuilding visitor numbers and more on developing offers tailored to smaller but higher-value customer groups.”

Calendar Effects Influenced April Performance

Retail Institute noted that year-on-year comparisons were affected by calendar and weather-related factors.

Easter fell 15 days earlier in 2026 than in 2025, shifting much of the seasonal shopping activity into March. In addition, April 2025 was one of the warmest Aprils ever recorded in Poland, while April 2026 reflected more typical weather conditions. Both factors likely influenced the year-on-year comparisons and may have exaggerated some of the apparent declines in individual categories.

Fashion Spending Shifts Further Online

The fashion sector remained under pressure in physical retail locations. Overall spending on clothing and footwear declined by 4.7 percent year-on-year, while the number of shoppers fell by 6.3 percent and transaction volumes by 7.6 percent.

Shopping centres recorded a 9.3 percent decline in fashion spending, while retail parks saw an even larger drop of 11.5 percent.

E-commerce was the exception. Online spending on fashion increased by 16.4 percent, accompanied by a 20.8 percent rise in the number of shoppers. Despite declining footfall, average transaction values in shopping centres rose by 2.8 percent, indicating that customers visiting physical stores were making fewer but larger purchases.

Online Grocery Sales Continue Rapid Expansion

The grocery sector presented a more complex picture. Overall spending was broadly stable, declining by just 0.6 percent year-on-year, while the number of shoppers increased by 1 percent.

Beneath these headline figures, however, significant channel shifts are taking place. Online grocery spending surged by 68.4 percent year-on-year, while the number of online grocery shoppers increased by 54.9 percent. Although partly influenced by a relatively low base, the figures suggest that online grocery shopping is gaining broader consumer acceptance.

At the same time, spending on grocery purchases in retail parks declined by 2.4 percent, while shopping centres recorded a 3.1 percent decrease.

Unlike many other categories, average transaction values in online grocery shopping increased by 23.2 percent, indicating that consumers continue to use digital grocery channels primarily for larger, planned purchases rather than impulse buying.

Retail Institute concluded that retailers and property owners should increasingly evaluate their performance against the broader local consumer spending market rather than solely against competing retail formats. Understanding whether spending declines result from category weakness or shifts between sales channels will become increasingly important for leasing, investment and marketing decisions.

Polish Warehouse Market May Tighten as Demand Returns and Development Activity Remains Restrained

Poland’s warehouse market remains broadly balanced, but industry experts are warning that conditions could tighten in selected locations if tenant demand continues to recover while new supply remains limited.

According to data from the Polish Chamber of Commercial Real Estate (PINK), Poland’s modern warehouse stock exceeds 37 million sqm, with a national vacancy rate of approximately 7 percent. At the end of March 2026, around 1.44 million sqm of warehouse space was under construction, with the largest share of new developments located in the Mazowieckie Voivodeship (37 percent), followed by Śląskie (15 percent) and Łódzkie (11 percent).

While the overall vacancy rate suggests that tenants still have options available, market participants note that conditions vary significantly by region and asset quality.

“The biggest mistake today would be to assume that the official vacancy rate guarantees a comfortable situation in the coming years,” said Tomasz Arent, Partner at SQM Advisory. “We are seeing signs of increasing demand, including activity from international occupiers, while developers remain cautious about launching speculative projects.”

Over the past two years, warehouse occupiers have largely focused on cost optimisation and lease renegotiations, while developers have limited new speculative construction, often requiring pre-leasing commitments before commencing projects. This has contributed to a more balanced market following the rapid expansion seen during earlier years.

According to SQM Advisory, demand from logistics operators and e-commerce companies has been gradually improving, particularly for larger units in established logistics locations. However, the consultancy notes that market conditions differ considerably depending on region, building quality and available unit sizes.

The availability of warehouse space remains particularly limited in some regional markets. PINK data show vacancy rates of 0 percent in Podlaskie, 1.1 percent in Opolskie and 1.4 percent in Zachodniopomorskie. However, these figures do not necessarily reflect conditions across Poland’s largest logistics hubs, where availability remains higher.

Developers continue to take a cautious approach to new investments amid financing constraints and economic uncertainty. Financial institutions are also applying greater scrutiny to new projects compared with previous market cycles.

Industry observers note that future market dynamics will largely depend on the pace of tenant demand growth. Should occupier activity accelerate significantly while development remains restrained, selected markets could experience declining availability and upward pressure on rents. However, current national vacancy levels suggest that the market remains broadly balanced overall.

“Tenants should continue to monitor market conditions and plan lease renewals well in advance, particularly in locations where availability is already limited,” Arent said.

While some analysts anticipate tighter conditions over the next several quarters, the extent of any market shift will depend on the strength of future demand, the pace of new development activity and broader economic conditions.

Source: PINK

Polish Manufacturing Sector’s Overdue Debt Reaches Record PLN 8.6 Billion

Outstanding debt in Poland’s manufacturing sector climbed to a record PLN 8.6 billion at the end of March 2026, highlighting growing financial pressures despite signs of a broader industrial recovery, according to data from BIG InfoMonitor and the Credit Information Bureau (BIK).

The value of overdue liabilities increased by nearly PLN 1.6 billion year-on-year, representing growth of 22.7 percent. At the same time, the number of manufacturing companies struggling to meet their obligations fell by approximately 1,800 businesses to 26,263 entities.

As a result, the average overdue debt per indebted manufacturing company rose sharply to PLN 328,000, compared with around PLN 250,000 a year earlier.

The figures present a contrasting picture of the sector. According to Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS), industrial production expanded by 9.4 percent year-on-year in March, marking one of the strongest monthly performances since 2022. Food processing, mining and metal products manufacturing were among the sectors driving growth.

However, stronger production activity has not translated into improved financial stability for many businesses.

“The industry is increasing output and the official data confirm stronger activity, but overdue debt continues to grow,” said Paweł Szarkowski. “This suggests that the economic recovery is not yet strong enough to significantly improve companies’ payment discipline and liquidity.”

Food and Metal Manufacturers Face the Largest Debt Burdens

The food manufacturing sector remains the most indebted segment of Polish industry. Companies involved in food production accumulated approximately PLN 1.5 billion in overdue liabilities, an increase of more than PLN 151 million, or 11.1 percent, over the past year.

Food producers continue to face rising costs for agricultural commodities, energy and labour, while also dealing with intense pricing pressure from retailers.

The second most indebted segment is metal products manufacturing, where outstanding liabilities exceed PLN 1.3 billion. More than 5,000 companies in the sector are experiencing repayment difficulties, reflecting persistent cost pressures and weaker demand from industrial and construction-related markets.

Meat Industry Records One of the Sharpest Increases

Among individual subsectors, the meat processing industry recorded one of the fastest deteriorations in payment performance.

Outstanding liabilities in meat processing and preservation increased by approximately PLN 125 million during the year, representing growth of 23 percent. Total overdue debt in the segment reached nearly PLN 665 million, accounting for almost one-tenth of all overdue liabilities within Poland’s manufacturing sector.

Industry analysts note that meat processors are particularly exposed to rising energy costs, higher raw material prices and labour shortages, while operating in a highly competitive market with relatively thin profit margins.

Labour Shortages Add Further Pressure

Beyond financial challenges, manufacturers continue to report difficulties recruiting qualified workers.

According to Waldemar Rogowski, labour shortages are becoming an increasingly significant constraint on industrial growth.

“Companies report that the limited availability of skilled workers is beginning to affect both day-to-day operations and longer-term development plans,” Rogowski said. Research conducted by BIG InfoMonitor shows that one in five manufacturing companies considers workforce shortages a major business risk.

Liquidity Becomes a Growing Concern

BIG InfoMonitor’s SME Scanner survey indicates that Polish businesses continue to operate in an environment of elevated uncertainty. Rising operating costs are cited as the biggest concern by 28 percent of companies, while 25 percent point to tax-related risks and 20 percent identify geopolitical uncertainty as a key challenge.

The latest figures suggest that although industrial production is recovering, many companies remain under considerable financial strain. Rising activity is generating higher operational demands, but for a growing number of manufacturers, maintaining liquidity is becoming as important as preserving profitability.

Analysts warn that monitoring the financial health of customers and business partners is likely to become increasingly critical as companies navigate a still-fragile recovery environment.

China’s Education Surge Highlights Poland’s Competitiveness Challenge

As Polish students collect their end-of-year certificates and graduates compete for university places, experts are increasingly questioning whether the country’s education system is adequately preparing young people for a rapidly evolving global economy.

The debate has intensified following the publication of the 2025 Shanghai Ranking, one of the world’s most closely watched university league tables. Poland placed seven universities among the world’s top 1,000 institutions, with the highest-ranked, the University of Warsaw, appearing in the 401–500 range. By comparison, China now has 222 universities in the top 1,000 and 13 institutions within the global top 100.

The contrast is even more striking when viewed over the past decade. In 2015, China had 32 universities in the Shanghai Ranking’s top 500 and was still widely regarded as a country catching up with Western academic and technological leaders. Today, it has emerged as one of the world’s strongest education and research powers, supported by substantial investment in science, technology and innovation.

According to labour market specialists, the differing trajectories reflect broader differences in educational priorities. China has spent years strengthening mathematics, engineering, science and technology education while maintaining high academic standards. Its national university entrance examination, known as the Gaokao, remains one of the most demanding examinations globally and serves as a gateway to higher education for millions of students each year.

At the same time, China has invested heavily in research institutions and technology-focused universities, helping fuel growth in sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, robotics and electric mobility.

Krzysztof Inglot, labour market expert and founder of Personnel Service, argues that Poland’s education model remains heavily focused on memorisation and examination performance rather than developing practical skills and adaptability.

“The key question is what kind of world we are preparing young people for,” Inglot said. “The global economy increasingly rewards technological, analytical and problem-solving skills, while traditional education systems often continue to prioritise reproducing knowledge rather than creating it.”

The challenge is becoming more urgent as artificial intelligence and automation reshape labour market requirements. Employers are placing greater value on logical thinking, digital literacy, creativity and the ability to work alongside emerging technologies, while routine tasks are increasingly automated.

Experts warn that future labour market divides may be defined less by traditional distinctions between manual and office-based work and more by the gap between workers who can effectively use technology and those whose roles can be replaced by it.

Inglot argues that strengthening mathematics, programming, critical thinking and project-based learning should become central priorities if Poland hopes to remain competitive in attracting investment and creating high-value jobs.

While Poland has introduced various education reforms over recent years, analysts suggest that broader structural changes may be necessary if the country wants to narrow the gap with global leaders in higher education and innovation.

As international competition for talent, technology and investment intensifies, education policy is increasingly being viewed not only as a social issue but also as a strategic component of long-term economic competitiveness.

Source: Personnel Service

Polish Housing Loan Demand Rises 32.7% Year-on-Year in May

Demand for housing loans in Poland continued to strengthen in May 2026, with the value of mortgage inquiries increasing by 32.7 percent year-on-year, according to the latest BIK Housing Loan Demand Index.

The index measures the total value of housing loan applications submitted by individual borrowers to banks and credit unions (SKOKs). On a working-day adjusted basis, the value of mortgage inquiries sent to the Credit Information Bureau (BIK) in May was nearly one-third higher than in the same month of 2025.

A total of 45,090 individuals applied for a housing loan in May, compared with 38,570 applicants a year earlier, representing a 16.9 percent increase. Demand also strengthened compared with April 2026, with the number of applicants rising by 6.7 percent month-on-month.

The average value of a requested housing loan reached PLN 505,590 in May, exceeding the PLN 500,000 threshold for another consecutive month. The figure was 8.1 percent higher than a year earlier, although marginally lower than the record level recorded in March 2026.

According to Waldemar Rogowski, Chief Analyst at BIK Group, the current strength of mortgage demand is being driven by both the growing number of borrowers entering the market and the increasing value of requested loans.

Source: BIK

Czech Mortgage Lending Reaches CZK 52.6 Billion in May Despite Higher Interest Rates

Banks and building societies in the Czech Republic provided mortgage loans worth CZK 52.6 billion in May 2026, according to data from the Czech Banking Association’s Hypomonitor. Although the volume was 14.5 percent lower than in April, it remained 54 percent higher than in May 2025, highlighting the continued strength of the mortgage market.

New mortgage lending, excluding refinancing, totalled CZK 38.1 billion, representing a month-on-month decline of 14 percent. However, mortgage activity remained significantly above the levels recorded at the end of last year. Banks issued 7,871 new mortgages during May, 20 percent more than a year earlier.

According to Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist at the Czech Banking Association, the slowdown was expected after exceptionally strong activity in previous months, when borrowers accelerated purchases ahead of planned regulatory changes affecting investment property financing.

Market participants also pointed to a temporary surge in demand earlier this year. David Eim, Vice-Chairman of Chepard Finance, noted that many borrowers had brought forward mortgage applications before the introduction of stricter lending rules, suggesting that activity could gradually return closer to long-term averages in the coming months.

Refinanced and increased mortgage loans fell to CZK 14.5 billion in May from CZK 17.2 billion in April. Despite the monthly decline, refinancing volumes remained more than double last year’s average and almost three times higher than in 2024. Refinanced mortgages accounted for just under 28 percent of total mortgage volumes, compared with an average share of 21 percent in 2025.

Mortgage rates moved higher during the month. The average interest rate on newly granted mortgages rose to 4.67 percent in May from 4.52 percent in April and stood slightly above the level recorded a year earlier.

Industry experts cited geopolitical uncertainty as a factor keeping borrowing costs elevated. According to UniCredit Bank mortgage specialist Michal Neubauer, tensions in the Middle East continue to influence financial markets and limit the potential for significant declines in mortgage rates.

Analysts also warned that mortgage pricing may continue to rise. Bidli analyst Daniel Horňák argued that banks have compressed margins in recent months to remain competitive, but suggested mortgage rates could approach 5 percent by the end of the year as lenders seek to restore profitability.

At the same time, changing market expectations are influencing borrower preferences. Jana Vaisová, a mortgage specialist at FinGO, noted growing interest in five-year fixed-rate mortgages as households seek protection against potential future rate increases, although three-year fixed terms remain the most popular option.

The average newly granted mortgage reached CZK 4.84 million in May. While slightly lower than in April, it was 17 percent higher than a year earlier, reflecting the continued rise in residential property prices across the Czech market.

Source: CTK

Czech Current Account Surplus Reaches CZK 70.5 Billion in First Quarter

The Czech Republic’s current account balance recorded a surplus of CZK 70.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026, according to preliminary data released by the Czech National Bank (CNB). While remaining firmly in positive territory, the result was lower than the CZK 113.5 billion surplus reported in the same period of 2025.

The surplus was primarily supported by the balance of goods and services, which reached CZK 149.1 billion during the first three months of the year. This represented a year-on-year decline of CZK 13.3 billion. The trade balance in goods generated a surplus of CZK 114.1 billion, down CZK 12.7 billion compared with the first quarter of last year, while the services balance posted a surplus of CZK 35 billion, slightly below the previous year’s level.

The primary income balance remained in deficit, reaching CZK 58.9 billion. According to the CNB, the year-on-year deterioration of CZK 14.3 billion was largely driven by higher reinvested earnings attributed to foreign direct investors. Reinvested profits totalled CZK 79.9 billion during the quarter, an increase of CZK 9.5 billion compared with a year earlier.

The secondary income balance also recorded a deficit, amounting to CZK 19.8 billion. This represented a year-on-year deterioration of CZK 15.4 billion, mainly due to lower net receipts from the European Union budget.

On the financial account, the Czech economy recorded a net capital outflow of CZK 66.4 billion, reflecting a stronger increase in foreign assets than in foreign liabilities. Meanwhile, the capital account ended the quarter with a surplus of CZK 26.7 billion, improving by CZK 7.9 billion compared with the first quarter of 2025.

Monthly data indicate that the Czech current account has remained in surplus throughout 2026. In April, the surplus reached CZK 1.2 billion, supported by a positive balance of goods and services amounting to CZK 28 billion.

The latest figures suggest that while external trade continues to provide strong support for the Czech economy, higher profit repatriation by foreign investors and lower inflows from the EU budget weighed on the overall current account balance during the first quarter.

Source: CTK

Czech Labour Inspectorate Uncovered 2,484 Illegal Workers in 2025

The Czech Republic’s State Labour Inspection Office (SÚIP) identified 2,484 illegally employed workers during inspections in 2025, representing an increase of 550 cases, or more than 28 percent, compared with 2024.

According to SÚIP, labour inspectors carried out 21,146 inspections during the year, including 6,278 inspections specifically focused on detecting illegal employment. Illegal work was uncovered at 1,089 businesses across the country.

The largest group of illegally employed individuals consisted of third-country nationals, accounting for 1,673 cases, or 67.4 percent of the total. Citizens of the Czech Republic represented 714 cases (28.7 percent), while EU citizens accounted for 97 cases (3.9 percent), most commonly from Slovakia, Romania and Hungary.

Ukrainian nationals continued to make up the largest share of illegally employed foreign workers. According to SÚIP, they represented 57 percent of all illegally employed foreigners identified during inspections.

The highest number of violations was found in the construction sector, where inspectors identified illegal employment at 201 employers. Accommodation, catering and hospitality businesses followed with 185 employers, while the manufacturing sector accounted for 151 employers.

Smaller companies were most frequently involved in illegal employment practices, particularly businesses employing up to nine workers and those with between 10 and 49 employees.

Despite the increase in detected cases, the total value of fines imposed for illegal employment-related violations declined. SÚIP issued penalties exceeding CZK 134 million in 2025, compared with nearly CZK 164 million in the previous year.

SÚIP noted that investigations into illegal employment remain highly complex and resource-intensive. Inspectors often face limited cooperation from employers and workers, while some businesses attempt to complicate proceedings by submitting large volumes of unrelated documentation or shifting responsibility for workers to other entities through complex subcontracting arrangements.

Historical data show that the number of illegally employed workers fluctuates significantly from year to year. Following a decline to 1,934 cases in 2024, the figure rose again in 2025, although it remains below the peaks recorded in 2018 and 2019, when more than 4,300 cases were identified annually.

Source: CTK

How the Iran-US Conflict Could Reshape India’s Energy Dynamics by 2030

The conflict between Iran and the United States has highlighted the vulnerability of global energy markets and reinforced concerns about supply security across Asia. For India, one of the world’s fastest-growing energy consumers, the implications extend far beyond short-term fluctuations in oil prices. The crisis has exposed structural challenges related to import dependence, shipping routes, energy security and inflation, while also accelerating discussions around renewable energy and diversification strategies that could reshape the country’s energy landscape by 2030.

India remains heavily dependent on imported energy. Crude oil imports account for nearly 89 percent of domestic consumption, making the country highly sensitive to disruptions in global supply chains and international pricing. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India is expected to become the largest contributor to global oil demand growth through 2030, with consumption projected to rise to approximately 6.6 million barrels per day by the end of the decade. This growth will be driven by expanding industrial activity, urbanisation, rising incomes and increasing transport demand.

The most immediate consequence of tensions in the Gulf has been increased uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transit routes. A significant share of India’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas imports either originate from or pass through the Gulf region. Any disruption to shipping traffic can increase transportation costs, insurance premiums and delivery times, placing additional pressure on India’s energy import bill.

Higher oil prices also have broader economic consequences. Rising crude prices can increase fuel and transportation costs, contribute to inflation and widen India’s current account deficit. Given the importance of energy to manufacturing, agriculture and logistics, prolonged volatility in global energy markets can affect economic growth and consumer spending.

In response to these risks, India has continued to diversify its energy procurement strategy. The country has expanded crude purchases from a wider range of suppliers over recent years, reducing dependence on any single region. Policymakers have also emphasised the importance of maintaining strategic petroleum reserves to improve resilience during supply disruptions.

The conflict has also strengthened the long-term case for accelerating India’s energy transition. Government initiatives supporting solar power, wind energy, green hydrogen, battery storage and electric vehicles are increasingly viewed not only as climate measures but also as instruments of energy security. Reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels could help shield the economy from future geopolitical shocks.

Natural gas is expected to play an important transitional role in this process. India continues to pursue its goal of increasing the share of natural gas in the national energy mix, while investing in LNG infrastructure and domestic gas networks to support industrial and urban demand.

By 2030, the most significant impact of the Iran-US conflict on India may not be temporary price increases but a deeper shift in policy priorities. The crisis has reinforced the importance of supply diversification, strategic reserves, renewable energy development and domestic energy resilience. As India’s energy demand continues to grow, balancing energy security, affordability and sustainability will remain one of the country’s most important economic challenges.

Rather than changing India’s dependence on energy imports overnight, the conflict is likely to accelerate an existing transition toward a more diversified and resilient energy system. The pace at which that transition occurs may ultimately determine how exposed India remains to future geopolitical disruptions in the decades ahead.

Source: CIJ.World India Research & Analysis Team

SCF Acquires Two Retail Parks in Romania, Expanding Regional Presence

Czech investment group SCF, together with its partners, has completed the acquisition of two NEST retail parks in Romania from developer RC Europe. The transaction, valued at nearly €40 million, marks SCF’s entry into the Romanian market and expands its retail property portfolio across Central and Eastern Europe.

The acquired assets, NEST Miercurea Ciuc and NEST Moinești, provide a combined gross leasable area of approximately 24,000 sqm. Both properties have been added to the portfolio of SCF CROP, a recently established sub-fund of SCF Investment Partners SICAV, which focuses on investments in retail parks across the Central and Eastern European region.

The larger of the two assets, NEST Miercurea Ciuc, is located in Miercurea Ciuc in central Romania and was developed in phases completed in 2020 and 2022. The retail park offers nearly 18,000 sqm of leasable space and includes a two-storey parking facility with 463 spaces. Tenants include Lidl, JYSK, Altex, LC Waikiki, Sportisimo, Pepco, Deichmann, KFC, Sinsay, TEDi and KiK. According to the seller, occupancy has remained above 98%.

The second property, NEST Moinești, is located in north-eastern Romania and serves a catchment area of approximately 60,000 residents. Opened in December 2024, the retail park comprises nearly 6,000 sqm of leasable area and 170 parking spaces. Its tenant mix includes Kaufland, JYSK, Pepco, Deichmann, Sinsay, KiK, TEDi and Martes Sport. Occupancy currently exceeds 96%.

RC Europe stated that the sale forms part of its strategy to streamline its portfolio and focus on new development projects, particularly in Croatia and the Czech Republic.

According to market data cited by the parties, retail parks have become the dominant format for new retail development in Romania in recent years, accounting for more than 70% of new retail space delivered between 2022 and 2023.

Financing for the acquisition was provided by J&T Banka. Filip & Company acted as legal adviser, while iO Partners provided commercial consultancy. Gleeds advised on technical matters, and TPA provided financial and tax advisory services.

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