Dubai’s Housing Boom Enters a New Phase as Supply Accelerates

Dubai’s residential property market is moving into a more demanding stage of its expansion as a growing volume of completed housing reaches the market at the same time as sales activity begins to moderate.

During the first half of 2026, 104 real estate projects with an investment value exceeding AED 111 billion were completed across Dubai, compared with 75 projects during the same period last year. The number of completed projects increased by almost 39%, while their combined investment value rose by 52%, according to Dubai Land Department data cited by Kamco Invest.

Residential delivery was an important part of that increase. Some 24,537 new homes were completed during the first six months of the year, up from 18,043 in H1 2025. The value of land associated with completed developments also increased sharply, reaching AED 19.5 billion compared with AED 8.3 billion a year earlier.

The figures demonstrate the scale of Dubai’s development pipeline moving from construction into completed property. However, Q2 market research suggests this new supply is arriving as conditions in the residential market become more balanced after several years of exceptional growth.

Savills recorded around 35,900 residential transactions during Q2, representing a 19% decline from the previous quarter. Off-plan properties continued to dominate activity, accounting for approximately three-quarters of transactions, but average apartment prices declined by around 4% quarter-on-quarter while villa and townhouse values showed a smaller adjustment.

Research from Cushman & Wakefield Core similarly identified a change in market direction during Q2. More than 13,000 residential units were completed during the quarter, while average citywide sales prices and rents came under downward pressure. A further substantial volume of housing was expected to reach completion during the second half of 2026.

The combination marks an important transition for Dubai. For much of the recent property cycle, attention centred on the strength of off-plan sales and rapidly rising residential values. Increasingly, the investment question is shifting towards how effectively the market can absorb properties as projects reach completion and investors take possession.

This does not necessarily point to a market-wide oversupply problem. Dubai continues to benefit from population growth, international capital inflows and its position as a regional business centre. Furthermore, the number of properties formally scheduled for delivery frequently exceeds the number ultimately completed within the original timetable.

There are nevertheless signs that supply exposure is becoming more important in determining individual asset performance. Communities receiving large numbers of competing apartments may experience greater pressure on rents and resale pricing than established districts where new construction remains more restricted.

Developers also appear to be responding. Cushman & Wakefield Core reported a significant reduction in residential launches during the first half of the year compared with 2025. This could eventually moderate the volume of future supply, although projects already under construction will continue to feed completed stock into the market.

The change is particularly significant for investors who purchased properties during the recent off-plan boom. As developments are handed over, units that previously existed primarily as investment contracts become homes competing for tenants and buyers in the secondary market. Rental performance, service charges, location and the amount of competing supply within individual communities consequently become more important to investment returns.

Prime residential property continues to show greater resilience. Knight Frank recorded 296 Dubai homes sold for more than $10 million during H1 2026, with a combined value of approximately $5.1 billion. Of these, 131 transactions occurred during Q2. The figures underline how conditions at the top of the market can differ substantially from those affecting mainstream apartment developments.

The emerging picture is therefore less one of a broad correction than a market becoming increasingly differentiated. Prime locations, established communities and developments with constrained competing supply may continue to perform differently from districts experiencing intensive construction and large numbers of simultaneous handovers.

There are signs of similar caution in the listed market. Dubai’s stock-market real estate sector declined 2.2% during August even as the broader DFM General Index increased 0.7%. Emaar Properties nevertheless remained the exchange’s most actively traded company by value during the month, with AED 4.2 billion of shares changing hands.

Dubai’s next property test will therefore be less about its ability to launch and sell projects than its capacity to absorb the homes already moving through the construction pipeline. With more than 24,500 residential units delivered during the first half alone, the transition from off-plan growth to completed stock is becoming increasingly visible.

For developers, investors and lenders, that makes absorption rates, rental performance and secondary-market liquidity increasingly important indicators. Dubai’s property expansion remains substantial, but the market entering the second half of 2026 is becoming more selective — and the performance gap between individual locations and projects is likely to become more important than the direction of the citywide market as a whole.

Germany’s Recovery Leans on Public Investment as Private Economy Struggles to Keep Pace

Germany’s economic outlook has improved following a stronger-than-expected first half of 2026, but the recovery remains heavily dependent on government spending while private investment, household demand and parts of the industrial economy continue to underperform.

The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) now expects GDP to expand by 1.2% in 2026, followed by growth of 1.0% in 2027 and 0.7% in 2028. The upgrade reflects stronger export performance earlier in the year and a less severe energy-price shock than initially feared.

Germany’s economy expanded by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter during the second quarter. Foreign trade provided much of the momentum, with exports increasing by 2.0%. Petroleum products and chemical intermediate goods contributed to the improvement, while manufacturers of computing and electronic equipment benefited from international investment associated with the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centres.

Domestic activity presents a less convincing picture. Private consumption increased by only 0.1% during the quarter, with households remaining cautious amid labour-market uncertainty and limited income growth. Business investment has also remained subdued, leaving government expenditure as an unusually important component of the recovery.

DIW estimates that public consumption and investment account for around 70% of Germany’s economic growth this year. Infrastructure expenditure, defence investment and higher government spending in areas including healthcare and social services are consequently supporting an economy in which private-sector demand has yet to generate comparable momentum.

This composition of growth has important implications for Germany’s property and construction markets. An economy expanding primarily through public investment can create opportunities for contractors, infrastructure providers and property markets connected with defence, transport, energy and other government-backed projects without necessarily producing an equivalent recovery across conventional commercial real estate.

Germany’s substantial infrastructure programme could therefore become one of the most important sources of construction demand over the next several years. Increased expenditure on transport networks and other public assets provides greater visibility for infrastructure-related construction at a time when privately financed development continues to face relatively difficult conditions.

Defence expenditure could have a similar effect in selected locations. Increased investment can generate requirements extending beyond military equipment to manufacturing facilities, logistics infrastructure, warehouses, research facilities and supporting supply chains. The property consequences are likely to be concentrated geographically rather than spread evenly across the country.

Technology investment provides another potential source of demand. The global expansion of AI-related infrastructure is already benefiting parts of Germany’s electronics and computing manufacturing sector. Continued investment in digital infrastructure could support industrial and data-centre-related activity, although the strength of the international AI investment cycle itself represents an increasingly important economic risk.

For traditional commercial property, the picture remains less straightforward. Weak private consumption provides limited support for consumer-dependent sectors, while cautious corporate investment restricts the prospects for a rapid improvement in occupier demand. Germany may therefore record stronger headline economic growth without immediately experiencing an equally broad recovery in offices, retail or privately financed development.

Industrial property also faces competing forces. Export growth helped Germany during the first half, but energy-intensive industries continue to operate in a challenging environment. Elevated gas prices remain a particular concern, while low water levels on important shipping routes are creating additional difficulties for chemicals, metals and other industries dependent on reliable transport and energy supplies.

DIW expects economic activity to lose momentum during the third quarter, with GDP broadly stagnating. Some of the export strength recorded earlier in the year may also have resulted from companies bringing forward activity because of uncertainty surrounding energy markets, meaning the first-half performance should not automatically be extrapolated into the remainder of 2026.

The labour market remains another constraint. DIW expects employment to decline from approximately 45.88 million people in 2025 to 45.68 million this year, while the unemployment rate is forecast to increase from 6.3% to 6.4%. Consumer-price inflation is projected at 2.7% in 2026 before easing to 2.6% next year and 2.0% in 2028.

Germany’s fiscal position is simultaneously becoming more expansionary. DIW forecasts a government deficit equivalent to 4.1% of nominal GDP this year, increasing to 4.6% in 2027 before easing slightly to 4.3% in 2028. The widening deficit reflects, among other factors, the greater role being played by public investment and expenditure.

For real estate investors, the headline improvement in GDP therefore tells only part of the story. The sectors most closely exposed to infrastructure, defence, technology investment and government expenditure may encounter substantially different conditions from property dependent on household consumption or broad-based corporate expansion.

Germany appears to be moving away from the stagnation that characterised much of the previous period, but the foundations of the recovery remain uneven. The critical question for property markets is whether government-supported investment can eventually stimulate stronger private capital expenditure, business expansion and household confidence.

Until that transition occurs, Germany’s commercial real estate recovery is likely to remain similarly divided: stronger where public spending and structural investment are creating demand, but considerably more cautious in sectors still waiting for the private economy to regain momentum.

AI Emerges as Productivity Tool as German Construction Sector Seeks Recovery

Artificial intelligence is beginning to move from experimentation towards practical use in Germany’s construction industry, with some of the clearest opportunities emerging in estimating, design, tender preparation, project documentation and construction monitoring. The shift comes as contractors continue to face pressure from weak building activity, elevated costs, skilled-labour shortages and financial risk.

Atradius expects AI to have its most immediate impact on activities involving large quantities of documents and project data. Construction companies routinely process specifications, quotations, invoices, variations, schedules and technical records, creating opportunities to automate parts of administrative work and accelerate the assessment of complex information.

Design and pre-construction could be among the areas experiencing the earliest changes. AI applications can generate and compare different design options and assess proposals against parameters including building regulations, project size and energy performance. Estimating and tender teams could similarly use the technology to process documentation and identify relevant information more quickly.

The potential extends onto construction sites. Increasing use of cameras, sensors and drones is creating larger quantities of digital information about projects. Combined with AI, these data can be analysed to follow construction progress, identify potential quality problems and support safety management.

David Engelhardt, Manager Risk Services at Atradius, expects these applications to become increasingly relevant to contractors. In his assessment, the barriers to wider adoption are increasingly connected with the availability and quality of data, workforce capabilities and regulation rather than the technology itself.

Further development could connect AI more closely with digital twins, robotics and automated project-management systems. Digital models could be used to assess the possible consequences of weather disruption, delivery delays or cost increases, while software agents could coordinate elements of scheduling, procurement and communication with subcontractors. Robotics could eventually reduce the amount of repetitive physical work required on construction sites.

The technology is emerging against a challenging economic background. Atradius forecasts that German construction output will decline by 1.6% in 2026, although this would represent a smaller contraction than the 3.7% fall recorded in 2024 and the 3.4% decrease in 2025.

There are nevertheless indications that some parts of the market are beginning to stabilise. Germany approved 21,600 homes in June 2026, according to figures cited by Atradius, representing an increase of 13.8% compared with the same month a year earlier. During the first six months of the year, approvals reached 126,300 homes.

The improvement needs to be considered against the substantial decline in residential construction experienced during previous years. An increase in permits also does not necessarily result immediately in construction starts, particularly while financing costs, development economics and construction expenses continue to influence project viability.

Infrastructure is providing greater support to the industry. Investment connected with railways, energy and heating networks, utilities, bridges and data centres is generating opportunities for contractors even as some conventional building segments remain subdued. Road construction has been weaker, while the additional infrastructure funding provided by the federal government has yet to produce a broad increase in industry order books, according to Atradius.

Financial pressure also remains visible. Germany recorded 735 construction-sector insolvencies between January and May 2026, compared with 744 during the corresponding period of 2025. Although the number of cases declined slightly, Atradius reports that losses associated with individual failures have become larger. The credit insurer also recorded a 6.2% year-on-year increase in reports of non-payment.

These conditions could make the financial case for AI more important than its technological novelty. Faster tender analysis, more accurate cost control, automated invoice checking and earlier identification of construction problems could help contractors reduce administrative workloads and protect margins in a sector where relatively small project errors can have significant financial consequences.

Atradius expects the broader construction market to improve from 2027 as increased public investment begins to reach projects. Its current forecast anticipates approximately 5% annual growth in German construction output in both 2027 and 2028, although the strength and timing of that recovery will depend partly on how quickly planned investment translates into procurement and construction activity.

AI is unlikely to remove the industry’s fundamental constraints, including planning delays, expensive materials, energy costs and shortages of skilled workers. Its more immediate significance may instead lie in helping construction businesses operate more efficiently within those constraints.

As Germany prepares for a potentially stronger infrastructure and construction cycle from 2027, the competitive divide may increasingly be determined not simply by which contractors adopt AI, but by which companies can successfully integrate it into estimating, procurement, project control and site operations to produce measurable improvements in cost, risk and delivery.

CTP Poland Approaches One Million sqm Leased as Expansion Accelerates

CTP is approaching a major scale milestone in Poland, with almost one million square metres of its industrial and logistics space now leased following several years of rapid portfolio expansion.

At the end of the first half of 2026, CTP had 996,840 sqm under lease in Poland. The company’s completed Polish portfolio has meanwhile reached approximately 1.092 million sqm, up from 218,000 sqm at the end of 2022. This represents more than a fivefold increase in completed space in around three and a half years.

Poland is also generating a disproportionately large share of the group’s current leasing activity. The country’s completed properties represent around 7.4% of CTP’s 14.8 million sqm European portfolio, while Polish transactions accounted for approximately 10.7% of the space leased by the group during the first six months of 2026.

CTP signed agreements covering approximately 168,000 sqm in Poland during H1, including space in existing properties, newly completed buildings and projects under construction. All of the Polish agreements signed during the period involved new customers, according to the company.

This differs from the wider European portfolio, where around 65% of leasing volume came from transactions with existing tenants. The comparison indicates that CTP’s Polish business is currently expanding its customer base alongside increasing its physical portfolio.

Demand in Poland came from several occupier groups. E-commerce and retail businesses represented almost 40% of H1 leased space, while logistics operators accounted for approximately 23%. Manufacturing companies, including businesses connected with renewable energy, generated around 17%.

One of the larger manufacturing transactions was a 29,000 sqm lease with Windar Renovables at CTPark Legnica. The renewable-energy equipment manufacturer provides an example of the type of industrial occupier CTP expects to become increasingly important as European companies adjust production and supply networks.

CTP Group CEO Remon Vos said demand remained strong across the company’s markets following record leasing during both quarters of the first half. He identified manufacturing localisation, rising consumer purchasing power and changes to European supply chains as important drivers, alongside emerging demand from industries including life sciences, defence, semiconductors, robotics, electric vehicles and batteries.

CTP has also been widening the geographical reach of its Polish platform. During the first half of the year, the developer announced projects in Suchy Las and Bydgoszcz, adding to a network that now comprises 20 parks. Sixteen of these are completed, with the company managing 35 operating buildings across 16 Polish locations.

Further development capacity is supported by approximately 2.6 million sqm of land held by CTP in Poland. The land portfolio gives the developer scope to add both speculative facilities and projects designed around the requirements of individual occupiers.

The pace of expansion in Poland forms part of continued growth across CTP’s wider European business. The group completed leases covering approximately 1.6 million sqm during H1 2026, an increase of 55% from the corresponding period of 2025.

Rental income also moved higher. Gross rental revenue reached €413.3 million, increasing 12.6% year-on-year, while net rental income rose 12.4% to €404.8 million.

Across its 11 European markets, CTP now owns approximately 14.8 million sqm of completed industrial and logistics property, with another 2 million sqm under construction. Its development land totals 33.7 million sqm, providing a substantial pipeline for future expansion.

The company continues to target €1 billion in annual rental income in 2027, making continued leasing and development across its larger Central and Eastern European markets important to achieving that objective.

Poland’s contribution is becoming increasingly significant. The combination of new customer acquisition, manufacturing requirements and continued demand from logistics, retail and e-commerce companies has enabled CTP to increase its Polish portfolio considerably faster than would be suggested by the country’s current share of the group’s completed European stock.

With leased space now less than 4,000 sqm short of the one-million-sqm threshold, the milestone itself is likely to be passed quickly. More significant for the industrial property market is the speed at which CTP has moved from a relatively small Polish presence at the end of 2022 to a portfolio exceeding one million sqm, backed by additional development land and expansion into new regional markets.

Ochnik Opens at Galeria Przymorze as Gdańsk Centre Refreshes Retail Mix

Galeria Przymorze in Gdańsk is continuing to reshape its retail offer with the addition of Polish fashion brand Ochnik, following several other recent changes to the shopping centre’s tenant line-up.

Ochnik opened its new store on 27 August, taking 386 sqm of space next to Pepco. The letting adds another established Polish retailer to the centre and forms part of a broader commercialisation strategy aimed at strengthening its mix of fashion, services and consumer brands.

Founded in 1989, Ochnik has developed from its original focus on leather clothing into a wider fashion and accessories business. Its current range covers women’s and men’s clothing, footwear, bags and accessories as well as luggage and travel products.

The arrival of Ochnik follows several other additions to Galeria Przymorze. The centre has recently expanded its tenant base with cosmetics retailer Douglas, optical chain Fielmann and travel agency ITAKA.

Agnieszka Wojtaszczyk, Director of Galeria Przymorze, said the centre is focusing on retailers that complement its existing offer and respond to customer demand. She added that the decision by another established brand to open at the property supports management’s assessment of the centre’s continuing attractiveness as a retail location.

The series of openings illustrates how established shopping centres are increasingly able to adjust their positioning through incremental leasing changes rather than relying exclusively on major redevelopment programmes. Introducing retailers across different categories can broaden the reasons for visiting a centre while replacing concepts that may no longer correspond with changing consumer habits.

For Galeria Przymorze, the recent changes span fashion, beauty, optical services and travel, creating a more diversified commercial offer. Ochnik’s 386 sqm store strengthens the fashion component while also adding product categories extending beyond conventional clothing.

The letting comes as Poland’s established shopping centres compete not only with newer schemes but also with the country’s expanding retail-park sector and online shopping. Maintaining an attractive tenant mix and adapting existing space to changing retailer requirements have consequently become increasingly important elements of asset management.

The latest opening represents another stage in that process at Galeria Przymorze, where a succession of new tenants is gradually refreshing the centre’s commercial offer and reinforcing its position within Gdańsk’s competitive retail market.

Fake Border Claims Attempt to Undermine Polish-Czech Relations

A coordinated online campaign has attempted to create friction between Poland and the Czech Republic by reviving an obscure historical border question and presenting it as evidence of a new territorial dispute between the two neighbouring countries.

The narrative suggested that Warsaw was preparing to seek Czech territory, despite there being no genuine political confrontation between the two governments over the issue. Instead, those behind the campaign appear to have combined fragments of historical fact with fabricated documents, impersonated officials and manipulated media content to make the story appear credible.

At the centre of the narrative was a border adjustment agreed between Poland and Czechoslovakia in 1958. Under the settlement, Poland transferred 1,205.9 hectares while receiving 837.46 hectares, creating a difference of 368.44 hectares. The discrepancy was never completely resolved, but for decades it has been handled as a technical matter between the countries rather than as an active territorial conflict.

The recent information campaign attempted to give this largely forgotten question a very different meaning.

One element involved the website of Polish regional broadcaster Radio PiK, where a fabricated story appeared following a cyberattack. A separate website designed to resemble Czech public radio was also reportedly used to give false information the appearance of legitimate journalism.

The campaign went further by creating social-media identities that appeared to belong to government representatives. One account impersonated the Czech ambassador to Poland and circulated a forged document supposedly showing that Poland wanted more than 600 hectares of Czech territory. Another profile presented itself as belonging to a Polish deputy foreign minister.

The difference between the historical 368-hectare imbalance and the considerably larger figure circulated through the false material is particularly important. The campaign was not simply drawing attention to an unresolved administrative question; it was constructing a new political narrative around it.

Those responsible also introduced Zaolzie into the story, bringing a considerably more sensitive historical issue into the campaign. The region became a source of Polish-Czechoslovak tension during the twentieth century and consequently provides considerably greater emotional potential than the technical border settlement of 1958.

False social-media material included claims about opposition to alleged Polish influence in the Czech city of Třinec. By connecting contemporary fabrications with historical disputes, the campaign attempted to make the suggestion of renewed Polish-Czech tensions appear more plausible.

The choice of Poland and Czechia is significant. Both countries are members of NATO and the European Union and have developed increasingly important political, economic and security cooperation. They have also been prominent supporters of Ukraine since Russia’s invasion.

At the same time, their shared history contains episodes that can be selectively presented to generate nationalist resentment. Modern influence campaigns do not necessarily need to invent an entirely new disagreement. An unresolved historical detail can instead provide the foundation upon which a much larger fictional confrontation is constructed.

Poland’s NASK disinformation specialists have indicated that techniques associated with the operation resemble methods previously identified in campaigns linked to Russian influence activity. Similar concerns have emerged on the Czech side.

That assessment, however, needs to be distinguished from definitive attribution. Publicly available evidence has not established conclusively that a particular Russian intelligence organisation or other specific group directed the operation. Similarity in methods can provide an indication of origin without constituting proof of who ordered or conducted a campaign.

Authorities and officials on both sides responded quickly to the false claims, rejecting suggestions that a territorial confrontation was developing and emphasising the strength of bilateral relations.

The attempt also appears to have struggled to move from manipulated websites and social media into established news coverage. Rather than reporting the supposed territorial dispute as genuine, mainstream reporting largely treated the material as an example of an effort to manufacture hostility between the two countries.

That outcome demonstrates one of the most effective defences against such operations: rapid verification before a fabricated narrative has time to establish itself.

The Polish-Czech case also illustrates how sophisticated disinformation does not have to be entirely fictional. In some circumstances, the most convincing false narratives begin with something that is demonstrably true.

The 1958 border adjustment happened. The resulting territorial imbalance exists as a historical issue. Zaolzie has a complicated Polish-Czech history. What changes the story is the artificial connection of those facts to invented contemporary demands, false government documents and impersonated officials.

This combination can be more persuasive than a completely fabricated story because readers encountering one verifiable element may assume that the surrounding claims are equally reliable.

The episode therefore has implications extending beyond relations between Warsaw and Prague. Central Europe contains numerous historical borders, minority questions and twentieth-century territorial changes that can be removed from their original context and repackaged for modern political purposes.

As Poland, Czechia and other countries in the region deepen cooperation on defence, energy, infrastructure and support for Ukraine, attempts to exploit historical sensitivities are likely to remain an information-security concern.

In this instance, the effort appears to have produced the opposite of its intended effect. Rather than triggering a serious diplomatic dispute, the fabricated territorial narrative resulted in Polish and Czech representatives publicly reinforcing the strength of their relationship.

The wider lesson is that disinformation can be most difficult to recognise when it contains enough genuine history to sound believable. The challenge for governments, media organisations and the public is therefore not simply identifying completely false stories, but recognising when authentic facts have been deliberately rearranged to manufacture a conflict that does not exist.

Source: WEI

De Haas Expands Logistics Capacity with 4,250 sqm Weiterstadt Lease

De Haas Road Cargo is relocating and expanding its German logistics operations with a new 4,250 sqm facility in Weiterstadt, strengthening its position on transport routes connecting the Frankfurt region with southern Germany and Austria.

The logistics company has agreed to occupy space at Gutenbergstrasse 19–21 in the Weiterstadt-Riedbahn industrial area, moving its existing operation from Hochheim am Main. The transaction was arranged by REALOGIS Immobilien Frankfurt, while the property is owned by ⁠P3 Logistic Parks.

De Haas Road Cargo specialises in transporting flowers and plants, making efficient handling and reliable connections to regional and international road networks important elements of its operation. The relocation will provide the company with approximately 3,340 sqm of warehouse accommodation together with around 910 sqm of offices.

Immediate availability was among the factors influencing the choice of the property. The leased space also provides eight dock-level loading doors, allowing vehicles to be processed efficiently as goods move through the facility. De Haas intends to use the additional capacity to support further development of its transport activities, particularly towards southern Germany and Austria.

The building was completed in 2008 and provides approximately 11,350 sqm of warehouse accommodation and 2,650 sqm of offices in total. The lease demonstrates the continuing ability of established logistics properties to attract occupiers where location, loading infrastructure and operational functionality meet current requirements.

Weiterstadt-Riedbahn is located approximately six kilometres northwest of Darmstadt and benefits from connections to several of the region’s principal transport routes. The A5 motorway is readily accessible, while the B42 provides connections towards the A67. Frankfurt Airport is approximately 24 kilometres from the property.

For logistics operators, the location provides access to the wider Rhine-Main market while maintaining road connections towards southern Germany. This positioning was particularly relevant for De Haas as the company seeks to increase capacity and develop its transport network further south.

The transaction also illustrates the role of existing buildings in Germany’s logistics market. With occupiers increasingly focused on operational efficiency and the ability to commence operations without lengthy development periods, modern specifications are not the only factor determining competitiveness. Well-connected properties with sufficient loading capacity and suitable layouts can continue attracting specialist logistics companies even as buildings become older.

For P3, the agreement brings a specialist transport occupier into part of its Weiterstadt property, while for De Haas the move provides additional operational capacity without requiring a purpose-built development.

The lease adds another occupier transaction to the Frankfurt-Darmstadt logistics corridor, where access to major motorways, Frankfurt Airport and the wider Rhine-Main economic region continues to support demand. The De Haas relocation shows that immediately usable warehouse space in established transport locations can remain competitive when it provides the infrastructure required for increasingly specialised logistics operations.

Nhood Appoints Amós González to Drive Growth Across Southern Europe and CEE

Nhood has appointed Amós González as Business Development Director for Southern Europe and Central and Eastern Europe as part of a wider reorganisation of its international commercial operations.

González will coordinate business development across Poland, Romania, Spain, Portugal and Italy. His appointment forms part of Nhood’s efforts to create closer links between its national operations and develop a more integrated approach to securing and managing real estate mandates across Europe.

The revised structure brings together functions covering market analysis, new client acquisition, existing client relationships and corporate marketing. It is also intended to improve cooperation between Nhood’s different markets and business lines, allowing teams to combine expertise when working with property owners and investors operating across several countries.

The international business development operation is headed by Filomena Conceição, Global Head of Business Development & Corporate Marketing. Under the new structure, regional teams will work within a broader framework aimed at increasing cooperation between countries and identifying opportunities to provide additional services to existing clients.

For the CEE market, the appointment places Poland and Romania within the same business development region as Nhood’s Southern European operations. The structure could provide greater opportunities to transfer experience between established Western and Southern European property markets and the company’s activities in Central and Eastern Europe.

González has approximately 20 years of experience in European commercial real estate, with a background spanning investment, asset management and business development. According to Nhood, he has participated in transactions with an aggregate value exceeding €1 billion and has managed real estate assets in Spain, Portugal and Italy.

His academic background includes a law degree from the University of Salamanca and an Executive MBA from ESIC Business & Marketing School.

González said the new structure should create additional opportunities for cooperation between markets and allow Nhood to develop its relationships with clients across the region.

The appointment comes as international property service providers increasingly seek to coordinate expertise across national boundaries, particularly as institutional owners manage portfolios spanning multiple European markets. For Nhood, combining Southern Europe and parts of CEE under common business development leadership provides a platform for pursuing cross-border mandates while retaining local market teams and expertise.

Kraków’s Office Market Splits as Central Buildings Pull Ahead

Kraków’s office market is showing an increasingly pronounced divide between centrally located properties and buildings in peripheral business districts, as companies become more selective about where and how much space they occupy.

Office leasing slowed substantially during the first half of 2026. Gross take-up reached approximately 73,000 sqm, 58% below the corresponding period last year, while net demand declined by a more moderate 27% to around 36,000 sqm. The comparison is influenced by particularly strong leasing activity during H1 2025, but the latest figures nevertheless point to greater caution among occupiers.

Location is becoming increasingly important in this environment. Kraków’s overall office vacancy rate reached 19.0% at the end of June, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. However, availability was distributed very unevenly across the city. Vacancy in the City Centre stood at just 10.3%, compared with 21.9% across non-central districts.

The difference suggests that Kraków’s relatively high headline vacancy increasingly conceals two different market conditions. Well-connected central properties are competing for tenants from a stronger position, while buildings outside the most desirable locations face a larger pool of available space and greater pressure to differentiate themselves.

Occupiers are increasingly concentrating on modern buildings that combine good public transport connections with nearby services and workplace quality. Manufacturing companies generated 31% of H1 demand, followed by financial businesses with 20% and the IT sector with 15%.

The largest transaction during the period was Brown Brothers Harriman’s new 13,700 sqm lease at WITA C. Akamai renewed 5,400 sqm at Vinci Office Centre, while PepsiCo renewed its existing accommodation and expanded at Brain Park A in a transaction covering 5,400 sqm.

Kraków remains Poland’s largest regional office market, with approximately 1.87 million sqm of modern stock at the end of June. Developers completed close to 34,000 sqm during the first half of the year, including new space within the WITA mixed-use development and Fabryczna Office Park B7.

Future supply, however, is becoming increasingly constrained. Only around 37,000 sqm was under construction at mid-year, representing a 45% reduction compared with the same point in 2025. Projects currently progressing include Tischnera Green Park 1 and Soneta, alongside the refurbishment of Loft Park B.

The sharp slowdown in development creates an unusual situation. Kraków has substantial vacant office space overall, but the amount of new accommodation entering the market is limited. If companies continue concentrating on better buildings and central locations, landlords could face very different conditions depending on the quality and position of individual assets.

Rental levels have so far proved comparatively resistant to the increase in vacancy. Asking rents ranged from approximately €10 to €19 per sqm per month at the end of June, with the upper end generally associated with central properties and selected higher-quality buildings elsewhere in the city.

The growing divergence could therefore become more important for investors than the overall vacancy figure. Properties unable to compete effectively for tenants may require greater capital expenditure, repositioning or more aggressive leasing packages, particularly as companies consolidate their office footprints and adapt space to hybrid working patterns.

Conversely, modern buildings in locations offering strong transport connections, services and attractive working environments could benefit from demand becoming concentrated within a smaller section of Kraków’s office stock.

With little new development underway, the next stage of Kraków’s office cycle may be determined less by overall supply and demand than by the widening performance gap between individual assets. A city with 19% vacancy can still experience tight conditions for the offices companies most want to occupy while simultaneously carrying substantial surplus space in buildings that no longer meet changing tenant requirements.

China’s New Property Cycle Is Being Built on Domestic Capital

China’s commercial real estate investment market is beginning to regain momentum, but the capital behind the improvement looks markedly different from that of previous property cycles. Rather than relying on a broad return of overseas funds, transaction activity in 2026 is increasingly being supported by Chinese companies acquiring premises for their own use, insurance groups, domestic institutions and private investors prepared to take long-term positions in assets whose values have already undergone substantial correction.

Shanghai provides one of the clearest examples of this shift. Commercial property transactions strengthened during the second quarter of 2026, while companies purchasing buildings for their own occupation emerged as one of the market’s most important sources of demand. Owner-occupiers accounted for approximately 45% of Shanghai investment activity during the quarter. Across the first half of the year, their share was around 43%, compared with approximately 18% for 2025 as a whole.

This represents more than a temporary change in transaction statistics. It suggests that the investment market is developing a new domestic buyer base capable of providing liquidity at a time when many traditional international property investors remain highly selective about China.

Companies have become particularly important purchasers of office buildings. After several years of falling valuations, acquiring an existing building can now make financial sense for businesses that previously would have leased their headquarters. A corporate buyer does not necessarily evaluate a property in the same way as an investment fund. Long-term occupation, control over premises, corporate identity and the ability to replace future rental expenditure with ownership can all influence the decision.

This difference in motivation is helping transactions take place even while conventional investment fundamentals remain challenging. Shanghai continues to face substantial office availability and pressure on rents, but these conditions do not automatically prevent a company from purchasing a building if the acquisition price has fallen sufficiently.

The changing market can already be seen in major transactions. Corporate and financial-sector buyers have acquired prominent Shanghai office properties for headquarters or strategic occupation. Such deals demonstrate how the correction in commercial property values is opening buildings that might previously have been priced primarily for institutional investment to a much broader range of domestic purchasers.

Domestic capital now dominates Shanghai investment activity more generally. During the first half of 2026, corporate purchasers represented more than half of transaction demand, while institutional and insurance investors provided another substantial share. Overseas capital remains present, but it is no longer necessary for international funds to lead the market for significant transactions to occur.

Beijing is experiencing a similar transformation. Domestic buyers accounted for virtually all recorded investment activity during the first half of the year, while corporate purchasers represented a particularly large proportion of acquisitions. Taken together, developments in China’s two largest commercial property markets suggest that this is becoming a structural change rather than an isolated Shanghai phenomenon.

Insurance capital is emerging as another important part of the new ownership landscape. Chinese insurers manage large pools of long-term capital and require assets capable of generating income over extended periods. With domestic fixed-income returns relatively low and commercial property prices substantially below earlier peaks, selected offices, retail properties and other mature assets have become increasingly attractive.

Several significant transactions have already demonstrated the scale at which insurance capital can participate. Insurers have taken positions in major commercial properties, including large Beijing assets, while billions of dollars have been deployed into Chinese real estate over recent years.

For property owners seeking to sell, this creates a valuable alternative source of liquidity. Developers dealing with balance-sheet pressure, overseas funds approaching the end of investment periods and existing owners seeking to release capital can potentially sell to institutions that are under less pressure to achieve short-term capital appreciation.

The investment logic nevertheless remains highly selective. Chinese insurers and other domestic institutions are not simply purchasing commercial buildings because prices have fallen. Location, tenant quality, income security, building specifications and the ability to maintain occupancy remain critical. Older properties in weaker locations can therefore continue to struggle even while transactions return elsewhere in the market.

This creates an increasingly pronounced division between buildings capable of attracting long-term domestic capital and properties that remain difficult to finance or sell.

The role of international investors also requires careful interpretation. Foreign capital has not abandoned China, and selected investors continue to examine opportunities. However, overseas funds no longer occupy the position they once held in determining market liquidity.

In some transactions, international investors are now sellers rather than buyers. Assets accumulated during China’s earlier expansionary period are being brought to market after substantial valuation adjustments, creating opportunities for domestic companies and institutions to acquire established properties at prices that would have been difficult to achieve several years ago.

The result is effectively a transfer between investment cycles. Buildings assembled when foreign institutional capital was expanding aggressively in China are gradually moving toward a more domestically controlled ownership structure.

That transition is occurring against a property market that remains far from fully recovered.

Office vacancies remain high in several major Chinese cities and landlords continue to face rental pressure. Development investment has also contracted sharply. During the first six months of 2026, national real estate development investment remained significantly below the previous year, with spending on offices and commercial buildings recording particularly steep declines.

The contrast is important. Investors are showing greater willingness to acquire completed properties at corrected valuations while remaining cautious about committing capital to new development.

China therefore appears to be experiencing an investment-market recovery before experiencing a development-market recovery.

The distinction also explains why transaction volumes can increase despite weak rental indicators. Property prices have adjusted much faster than many occupational markets have recovered. For purchasers with substantial cash resources and long investment horizons, that repricing can create opportunities before rents or occupancy begin improving materially.

Another important development could further accelerate the transformation. China expanded the role of publicly traded real estate investment vehicles during 2026, including the introduction of commercial property REITs backed by established office and retail assets.

A deeper domestic REIT market could eventually provide owners with another mechanism for releasing capital from mature properties. It could also create an institutional exit route for investors acquiring and repositioning buildings today, increasing the potential liquidity of commercial assets.

Retail property could particularly benefit where shopping centres have stable occupancy, established operating histories and predictable cash flows. Rather than requiring an overseas fund to acquire an entire property, mature assets could increasingly move between domestic private owners, insurers, institutions and listed investment structures.

State-related and government-linked capital may also participate in this changing landscape, particularly where acquisitions have strategic, financial or urban-development objectives. However, the strongest evidence from the first half of 2026 points toward a broader domesticisation of investment rather than a market being rescued primarily by state-owned buyers.

This matters because China may be constructing a commercial property investment system that functions differently from the one that existed before the downturn.

During the previous expansion, developers, international funds and rapidly appreciating property values played central roles. The emerging market is more dependent on existing assets, corrected prices, operating income and purchasers willing to hold property for strategic or long-term financial reasons.

Shanghai has become the clearest testing ground. Rising transaction activity is taking place even without a dramatic recovery in office rents or the wholesale return of overseas capital. Companies are buying headquarters, insurers are examining long-duration assets and domestic institutions are purchasing properties at valuations that increasingly compensate for leasing and economic risks.

The significance of China’s commercial property recovery may therefore lie less in how much real estate is being traded than in who is purchasing it.

If this pattern continues, the next Chinese property cycle will not simply restore the market that existed before the downturn. It could leave the country’s most important commercial buildings in substantially different hands, with domestic corporate and institutional capital becoming the foundation of investment liquidity rather than an alternative to foreign money.

Source: CIJ.World Research & Analysis Team

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