Friday, 8 May 2026
Atradius has warned that insolvencies in Germany’s transport and logistics sector are expected to rise significantly in 2026 as the industry comes under increasing pressure from geopolitical tensions, rising fuel prices and weak operating margins.
According to the credit insurer, the escalation of conflict in the Middle East and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have intensified existing challenges facing freight forwarders and logistics operators. Higher diesel costs, labour shortages, increasing personnel expenses and strong competition are contributing to worsening financial conditions across the sector.
Frank Liebold, Country Director Germany at Atradius, said the German transport and logistics industry has for years ranked among the sectors with the highest insolvency rates in the country and warned that the situation is likely to deteriorate further during 2026.
Atradius estimates that one in four small and medium-sized transport companies is currently at acute risk. The company noted that many freight forwarders are required to pay diesel costs immediately while customer payments are often only received after 60 days, placing significant pressure on liquidity. With profit margins below three percent in many cases, the financing burden has become increasingly difficult for smaller operators.
The insurer said non-payment notifications during the first four months of 2026 have already exceeded levels recorded in previous years. In 2025, 469 logistics companies in Germany filed for insolvency, including 19 businesses with annual revenues above €10 million. The insolvency rate increased by 5.6 percent compared with 2024.
The sector is also facing mounting costs linked to digitalisation and the continuing shortage of drivers, while competition from lower-cost Eastern European transport operators continues to pressure margins.
Atradius cited forecasts from Oxford Economics showing global transport and logistics growth of 2.4 percent in 2025, down by one percentage point from projections made before the escalation of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. In a scenario where disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues for another six months, Atradius said growth in the sector could fall to zero. For Germany specifically, the insurer expects the transport and logistics sector to contract by 2.1 percent.
The company also warned that higher transport costs are likely to feed directly into consumer prices, particularly food inflation. According to Atradius, food prices could rise by up to 10 percent in the short to medium term as energy and transport costs increase across the supply chain, from agricultural production to distribution.
Atradius said current measures introduced by the German government may not be sufficient to offset the impact on smaller freight operators. The insurer noted that several European countries have already reduced mineral oil taxes or released emergency reserves, while Germany has yet to introduce a broader commercial diesel support mechanism.
At the same time, the company suggested that the current fuel price shock could accelerate investment in alternative transport technologies such as electric and hydrogen-powered trucks. However, Atradius cautioned that many operators currently lack the capital required to finance the transition without additional government support.
