The Future Inflation Index (WPI), which anticipates changes in consumer goods and services prices several months ahead, remained unchanged in February 2026 compared with January, indicating no immediate signs of rising inflationary pressure.
Of the index’s eight components, four pointed toward lower inflation while the remaining four suggested potential upward pressure. Despite this balanced distribution, current readings do not indicate a growing threat to overall price stability.
Among the factors that could contribute to higher inflation is a renewed increase in price expectations among manufacturing managers. For the third consecutive month, the share of companies planning price increases has exceeded those intending to lower prices. The strongest inclination to raise prices is reported among producers of durable consumer goods, as well as in the pharmaceutical and metal industries. However, these intentions have yet to translate into actual price movements. Average annual producer price index (PPI) readings have remained negative for more than two years, effectively reflecting ongoing producer-level price deflation.
Analysts note that at the beginning of each calendar year businesses often anticipate higher prices, partly due to regulated tariff adjustments and administrative cost increases. In 2025, for example, the expiration of government energy price protections and higher minimum wage thresholds contributed to rising operating costs. This year, however, the scale of such increases has been smaller, suggesting weaker incentives for companies to pass higher costs on to consumers.
Another element with potential inflationary impact is the relatively high capacity utilisation rate in the manufacturing sector compared with previous years. Higher utilisation can raise maintenance and investment costs, potentially feeding into pricing decisions. Historically, Polish industry capacity utilisation fluctuates within a narrow band of roughly 70 percent during downturns to 80–82 percent during periods of strong growth. The current rate stands at approximately 78 percent. Economists caution, however, that prolonged underinvestment in industrial assets may have reduced effective production capacity, artificially lifting utilisation figures without necessarily signalling overheating demand. As a result, the current level is not viewed as a direct risk to price stability.
Commodity markets have recently experienced heightened volatility, largely linked to geopolitical developments. The World Bank’s commodity price index increased from about 94 points in December 2025 to 102 in January 2026, accompanied by sharp price swings across individual raw materials. Analysts expect conditions to stabilise in the near term, particularly for commodities that most directly influence consumer inflation, including oil and food.
Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations have returned to levels observed last autumn. The brief rise in concerns recorded in December is seen as seasonal, reflecting typical pre-holiday price increases and heightened spending rather than a sustained shift in inflation sentiment.
Overall, current indicators suggest that while some cost pressures persist within industry and commodity markets, the broader outlook for consumer price growth remains stable in the near term.
