All posts by fletcher@cijeurope.com.

The Polish-Belarusian Border: Why the Closure Matters for Trade Between China and Europe

Warsaw’s decision in mid-September 2025 to shut all road and rail crossings with Belarus during the Russia-Belarus “Zapad-2025” drills has immediate security and economic implications. The Interior Ministry’s regulation, which took effect from September 12 with no fixed end date, suspends passenger and freight movement to mitigate risks from potential incidents and airspace violations linked to the exercises. 

The closure affects a critical section of the Eurasian land bridge. Poland is the dominant EU gateway for China–Europe rail freight, and the Małaszewicze reloading region at the Belarus border is the principal transshipment hub on this route. In 2024, Małaszewicze handled roughly 84.7% of westbound China–Europe rail cargo (around 280,200 TEUs), underscoring how disruptions here reverberate across European supply chains. Even before the current shutdown, operators reported periodic bottlenecks and queueing at this crossing. 

The stoppage is already producing practical consequences: thousands of vehicles were caught on the Belarusian side when the closure took effect, while Polish authorities advised hauliers to reroute. Prolonged suspension would likely push more Asia-Europe volumes to sea and air, raising transit times and costs for shippers that rely on time-sensitive rail. 

Diplomatically, Beijing has engaged. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Polish Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski in Warsaw on September 15 during the Poland–China Intergovernmental Committee, a forum both sides used to signal the importance of stable trade corridors. For China—balancing ties with Moscow and commercial interests in Europe—predictable transit through Poland is strategically valuable. 

Broader trade politics add pressure. In parallel, U.S. President Donald Trump urged NATO states to impose 50–100% tariffs on Chinese goods to curb revenues linked to Russia; Washington has hinted at further measures depending on Europe’s response. Escalation on this front would raise the cost of Chinese exports, further elevating the value of efficient, low-risk logistics paths into the EU—again putting a premium on the reliability of the Polish corridor. 

Bottom line: Poland’s security-driven border closure is also a supply-chain event. Because so much China–EU rail freight funnels through Małaszewicze, even temporary suspensions ripple into lead-times and costs for European industries. With Beijing engaging Warsaw and tariff talk intensifying in Washington, the intersection of security and trade policy is unmistakable: restoring predictable operations at Poland’s eastern border is now a shared interest for the EU, China-based exporters, and multinational shippers.

Source: WEI (Warsaw Enterprise Institute)

LIP Invest Begins Investment Phase for Fifth Logistics Real Estate Fund

LIP Invest has launched the investment phase of its latest vehicle, the “LIP Real Estate Investment Fund – Logistics Germany V,” with initial purchases already completed. The fund has invested €70 million in new logistics properties, and the first capital calls are expected soon. Several institutional investors have committed, while others are in the final review stage.

The fund, managed by IntReal Kapitalverwaltungsgesellschaft, follows a core strategy targeting newly built, third-party-usable logistics assets in established locations. The investment plan includes acquiring 10 to 15 properties with a total volume of at least €350 million. The first assets purchased have already received sustainability certification.

According to Managing Director David Zimmermann, the first closing demonstrates ongoing investor demand for specialized logistics funds. “With further commitments expected shortly, we anticipate reaching the planned volume quickly,” he said, noting that the fund remains open to additional institutional participants.

Germany’s logistics sector continues to be the focus. Sebastian Betz, Managing Partner at LIP Invest, emphasized the country’s position as Europe’s largest logistics market, valued at around €330 billion, supported by its infrastructure, central location, and industrial diversity.

The company points to long-term drivers of demand, including increased spare parts storage, online retail expansion, food delivery services, and structural changes in supply chains. These trends are expected to create steady requirements for modern logistics facilities, such as cold storage and distribution centers, aligning with the fund’s investment strategy.

LIP Invest’s team of over 20 professionals remains largely unchanged in key positions since previous fund cycles. To support further growth, the firm has strengthened its acquisition and finance functions. Maximilian Leeb has been appointed Head of Real Estate Acquisition, while Anna Niggl has been promoted to Head of Fund Finance, becoming the main contact for financing banks.

The new fund builds on LIP’s earlier logistics real estate vehicles, which have already established a track record in the German market.

Survey: One-Third of Hungarians Lack Reliable Professional Help in Home Emergencies

A representative survey by Europ Assistance shows that one in three Hungarians has no trusted professional to call in case of an emergency at home. The findings, also reported by Portfolio.hu and BBJ.hu, highlight concerns about high prices, long response times, and inconsistent quality of service as the main obstacles in the home repair sector .

According to the survey, 44 percent of respondents aged 18–69 said electrical failures and power outages are their greatest concerns in the event of an emergency. Roughly a third mentioned gas leaks, blocked sewage systems, or malfunctioning electronic equipment after the warranty period as major worries. Less common were door lock failures (25 percent) and solar panel damage (14 percent).

Insurance remains widely valued: 92 percent of respondents considered fire protection essential, followed by water damage and burst pipes (90 percent) and storm damage (88 percent). About 80 percent would insure against glass damage, while liability insurance was important for four out of five households. Coverage for blocked sewage systems was mentioned by 75 percent, but only 60 percent supported adding household appliance failures after warranty expiry.

The survey also revealed structural challenges. Only 20 percent of Hungarians have a trusted professional for all types of home problems, while 46 percent can reach out to someone in specific cases. A third have no fixed contacts and must search for help each time. Among those who have required assistance, half reported difficulties with high costs or emergency surcharges, and 47 percent said they struggled to find the right tradesperson. Nearly as many noted problems with poor workmanship and communication.

“Nearly 56 percent of the population considers it risky to live without home insurance, and 87 percent find assistance services useful, but only 22 percent currently have this type of protection,” said Gábor Szabolcs Timár, head of operations at Europ Assistance Hungary. He added that 24-hour helplines, fast dispatch of verified professionals, and emergency electrical repair were seen as the most attractive services.

The survey underscores both the strong perceived need for insurance and the significant gap in reliable professional services for household emergencies.

Survey: One-Third of Hungarians Lack Reliable Professional Help in Home Emergencies

A representative survey by Europ Assistance shows that one in three Hungarians has no trusted professional to call in case of an emergency at home. The findings, also reported by Portfolio.hu and BBJ.hu, highlight concerns about high prices, long response times, and inconsistent quality of service as the main obstacles in the home repair sector .

According to the survey, 44 percent of respondents aged 18–69 said electrical failures and power outages are their greatest concerns in the event of an emergency. Roughly a third mentioned gas leaks, blocked sewage systems, or malfunctioning electronic equipment after the warranty period as major worries. Less common were door lock failures (25 percent) and solar panel damage (14 percent).

Insurance remains widely valued: 92 percent of respondents considered fire protection essential, followed by water damage and burst pipes (90 percent) and storm damage (88 percent). About 80 percent would insure against glass damage, while liability insurance was important for four out of five households. Coverage for blocked sewage systems was mentioned by 75 percent, but only 60 percent supported adding household appliance failures after warranty expiry.

The survey also revealed structural challenges. Only 20 percent of Hungarians have a trusted professional for all types of home problems, while 46 percent can reach out to someone in specific cases. A third have no fixed contacts and must search for help each time. Among those who have required assistance, half reported difficulties with high costs or emergency surcharges, and 47 percent said they struggled to find the right tradesperson. Nearly as many noted problems with poor workmanship and communication.

“Nearly 56 percent of the population considers it risky to live without home insurance, and 87 percent find assistance services useful, but only 22 percent currently have this type of protection,” said Gábor Szabolcs Timár, head of operations at Europ Assistance Hungary. He added that 24-hour helplines, fast dispatch of verified professionals, and emergency electrical repair were seen as the most attractive services.

The survey underscores both the strong perceived need for insurance and the significant gap in reliable professional services for household emergencies.

BYD Expands Operations at CTPark Komárom

BYD Electric Bus & Truck Hungary Kft. has signed a lease agreement with CTP Hungary and taken possession of a newly developed 5,000-square-meter industrial hall at CTPark Komárom. The facility will support the company’s activities in electric bus and truck production.

The building was constructed to meet specialized technical requirements, including high-capacity power infrastructure, large drive-in gates, and an advanced electrical network. According to BYD, these features are necessary for the smooth operation of its production activities in Komárom.

Henry Zhang, Managing Director of BYD Electric Bus & Truck Hungary Kft., said that CTP provided a comprehensive solution by coordinating planning, construction, and licensing. He noted that this approach reduced administrative work and shortened timelines.

The Komárom site was selected in part due to its location, transport connections, and access to a skilled workforce. The facility also offers potential for future expansion.

The hall has been designed with sustainability goals in mind and is targeting a BREEAM “Excellent” certification. A rooftop solar installation is planned for completion by the fourth quarter of 2025.

Dr. Ferenc Gondi, Managing Director of CTP Hungary, said the project demonstrates how the company’s industrial properties can be adapted to the needs of high-tech tenants.

BYD’s expansion in Komárom is expected to support local employment and contribute to the growth of Hungary’s electromobility sector.

PPF Real Estate to Acquire Diplomat Hotel in Prague

PPF Real Estate Holding has reached an agreement with Rabbit Holdings Public Company Limited, a Thai real estate and financial services company, to acquire the Diplomat Hotel in Prague. The transaction is subject to standard regulatory approvals.

The acquisition expands PPF Real Estate’s international portfolio, which spans offices, residential properties, and hotels across Europe and North America. Located near PPF Group’s headquarters, the Diplomat Prague is operated by Wyndham Hotels & Resorts under the Vienna House Diplomat Prague brand. The property includes 400 rooms and extensive conference facilities catering to business clients.

Under the terms of a previously concluded agreement with PPF Real Estate, Tomáš Otruba, a member of PPF Group’s supervisory board, will acquire a 5 percent stake in the property.

“Real estate is an important investment pillar for PPF, providing predictable, long-term returns and global geographic diversification. The acquisition of the Diplomat Hotel in Prague reflects this strategic approach and PPF’s ongoing search for investment opportunities,” said Robert Ševela, Chairman and CEO of PPF Real Estate.

No further financial details of the transaction have been disclosed.

Michał Radomski Joins Scallier as Investment Director

Michał Radomski has joined Scallier in Poland as Investment Director. In his new role, he will be responsible for advising clients on the acquisition of retail real estate, overseeing asset sale processes on behalf of property owners and developers, and supporting both institutional and private investors in implementing investment strategies and building portfolios. He will also contribute to Scallier’s development and investment projects.

Radomski has more than a decade of experience in commercial real estate investment in Poland. His career has included advisory roles in acquisitions for international investment funds, as well as managing numerous property transactions on the domestic market. He played a role in bringing an Austrian investment fund into Poland and was involved in acquisitions for Centerscape Investments in both Poland and the Czech Republic. He has also advised on the development of retail parks in Poland and Slovakia.

“We are pleased to welcome Michał to our team. His experience and skills will support our company’s plans and provide clients with comprehensive advisory services,” said Bartosz Nowak, Managing Partner at Scallier.

Commenting on his new position, Radomski said: “Working at Scallier marks a new stage in my career. The company’s experience in Poland and Romania allows us to provide clients with broad support in investment projects, both in local and wider European markets.”

Almost 700,000 sq m of Office Space Leased in H1 2025 as Demand Holds, Supply Hits Historic Low

Poland’s office market is showing strong tenant demand against a backdrop of historically low developer activity, with nearly 700,000 sq m leased in the first half of 2025, according to Colliers. Leasing activity was 14 percent higher than in the same period of 2024, while new supply reached its lowest level on record.

Colliers reports that only 87,600 sq m of new offices were delivered nationwide in H1 2025, 97 percent of which was in Warsaw. The West-Centre zone, particularly around Rondo Daszyńskiego, remained the most active development area, with major completions including Ghelamco’s The Bridge, Echo Investment’s Office House/T22, and CD Projekt’s new headquarters. Vacancy in Warsaw fell to 10.8 percent by mid-year, with central areas at 7.8 percent compared to 13.3 percent in non-central districts.

Regional markets recorded the bulk of demand. Colliers notes that 387,200 sq m was leased outside the capital, 35 percent more than in H1 2024. Kraków led with 172,000 sq m, accounting for 44 percent of regional take-up, followed by Wrocław (21 percent) and the Tri-City (14 percent). “Companies are focusing on maintaining their current locations, which may result in increased competition for the most desirable space,” said Anna Galicka-Bieda, Partner and Director of Colliers’ Kraków office.

Other agencies confirm the trend. JLL highlighted that national take-up approached 700,000 sq m, with Q2 activity split almost evenly between Warsaw and the regions. Savills pointed to Kraków’s 85 percent year-on-year growth in leasing, while BNP Paribas Real Estate underlined Warsaw’s lowest-ever pipeline of only ~135,000 sq m under construction, more than 50 percent less than in mid-2024. CBRE noted that the pipeline in regional cities was also at a multi-year low, limiting options for tenants seeking modern, ESG-compliant space.

Rents are already showing upward pressure. Colliers places Warsaw’s starting rents between €19–29 per sq m/month, reaching €35 in the best projects. JLL’s figures are broadly consistent, citing prime asking rents at €22.5–26 in central Warsaw, with new landmark schemes closer to €28–29. In regional hubs, rates remain between €12–19.5, with Kraków and Wrocław at the upper end. Katowice, with vacancy at 22.7 percent, continues to offer tenants the greatest negotiating leverage.

Outlook: Colliers and JLL both forecast further tightening in central locations and top regional projects, with certified Class A buildings increasingly polarising demand. With only 342,300 sq m under construction nationwide and several projects delayed or converted to other uses, supply will remain constrained through 2026. Experts expect rents in the best-located new schemes to rise further, while outdated stock will either undergo modernisation or exit the market.

Sources: Colliers, JLL, Savills, BNP Paribas Real Estate, and CBRE

Oil Prices Recover Partially as OPEC+ Output Rises and Geopolitical Tensions Escalate

Oil markets in September 2025 showed volatility as crude prices attempted to recover from early-month losses but remained below the USD 70 per barrel threshold. The partial rebound was supported by a smaller-than-expected production hike announced by OPEC+, a strike in Qatar, and renewed discussions on sanctions against countries buying Russian crude. However, downward pressure persisted due to oversupply, higher U.S. output, and concerns over sluggish demand in major economies.

Average crude prices declined in August, with Brent down 3.8% to USD 68.2/b, OPEC’s reference basket down 1.7% to USD 69.7/b, and Kuwait Export crude down 1.0% to USD 70.7/b. Forecasts from major institutions point to further softening, with median expectations for Brent at USD 64/b in Q4 2025 and USD 62/b in Q1 2026.

Demand forecasts diverged slightly between agencies. OPEC held its 2025 growth outlook steady at 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), bringing total demand to 105.1 mb/d. The International Energy Agency (IEA), meanwhile, raised its projection to a 740,000 b/d increase, citing stronger-than-expected consumption in advanced economies, though warning of weaker second-half demand. Refinery runs reached record highs of 85.1 mb/d in August.

On the supply side, world output hit a record 106.9 mb/d in August, up from 105.6 mb/d in July, as OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers unwound earlier cuts. U.S. production climbed to 13.5 mb/d in early September, while OPEC production rose for a sixth consecutive month to 27.9 mb/d, its highest level in over two years. Spare capacity among OPEC members was estimated at 5.15 mb/d.

Geopolitical risks added further uncertainty. The strike on Qatar raised concerns about Middle East stability, while renewed hostilities between Russia and Ukraine led to fresh discussions in Washington and Brussels about tightening restrictions on Russian crude exports. Moves by Iraq and Saudi Arabia to cut supplies to Russian-linked refineries in India highlighted the complex interplay between sanctions policy and trade flows.

Looking ahead, consensus forecasts suggest oil prices will remain under pressure from oversupply through 2026, with world production expected to rise further to 107.9 mb/d. While geopolitical risks continue to lend short-term support, the broader trend reflects a market facing persistent surplus and demand uncertainty.

Source: Kamco Invest

Oil Prices Recover Partially as OPEC+ Output Rises and Geopolitical Tensions Escalate

Oil markets in September 2025 showed volatility as crude prices attempted to recover from early-month losses but remained below the USD 70 per barrel threshold. The partial rebound was supported by a smaller-than-expected production hike announced by OPEC+, a strike in Qatar, and renewed discussions on sanctions against countries buying Russian crude. However, downward pressure persisted due to oversupply, higher U.S. output, and concerns over sluggish demand in major economies.

Average crude prices declined in August, with Brent down 3.8% to USD 68.2/b, OPEC’s reference basket down 1.7% to USD 69.7/b, and Kuwait Export crude down 1.0% to USD 70.7/b. Forecasts from major institutions point to further softening, with median expectations for Brent at USD 64/b in Q4 2025 and USD 62/b in Q1 2026.

Demand forecasts diverged slightly between agencies. OPEC held its 2025 growth outlook steady at 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), bringing total demand to 105.1 mb/d. The International Energy Agency (IEA), meanwhile, raised its projection to a 740,000 b/d increase, citing stronger-than-expected consumption in advanced economies, though warning of weaker second-half demand. Refinery runs reached record highs of 85.1 mb/d in August.

On the supply side, world output hit a record 106.9 mb/d in August, up from 105.6 mb/d in July, as OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers unwound earlier cuts. U.S. production climbed to 13.5 mb/d in early September, while OPEC production rose for a sixth consecutive month to 27.9 mb/d, its highest level in over two years. Spare capacity among OPEC members was estimated at 5.15 mb/d.

Geopolitical risks added further uncertainty. The strike on Qatar raised concerns about Middle East stability, while renewed hostilities between Russia and Ukraine led to fresh discussions in Washington and Brussels about tightening restrictions on Russian crude exports. Moves by Iraq and Saudi Arabia to cut supplies to Russian-linked refineries in India highlighted the complex interplay between sanctions policy and trade flows.

Looking ahead, consensus forecasts suggest oil prices will remain under pressure from oversupply through 2026, with world production expected to rise further to 107.9 mb/d. While geopolitical risks continue to lend short-term support, the broader trend reflects a market facing persistent surplus and demand uncertainty.

Source: Kamco Invest

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