Poland: Economic outlook dims as forward-looking indicator drops, new orders decline

The Forward Looking Indicator (WWK), a key economic measure forecasting future trends, slipped by 0.2 points in October 2024, marking a continuous decline since the start of the year. Cumulatively, the index has dropped by 1.5 points, underscoring a persistently bleak economic outlook.

A key factor driving this downturn is the ongoing decrease in new manufacturing orders, affecting both international and domestic markets. With sluggish economic activity across much of Europe, foreign demand has weakened, while signs of shrinking domestic demand—previously a growth engine—are also emerging. The hardest-hit sectors include metals, machinery and equipment, electronics, and textiles.

This reduced demand has led to an unusual surge in the stockpiling of finished goods. Despite months of efforts to reduce inventories and scale back production, companies are finding their warehouses unusually full. This inventory build-up is particularly concerning, as firms typically clear out space in anticipation of holiday production needs. The implication is that further production cuts may be on the horizon.

While industrial output remains weak, there has been a slight improvement in the financial outlook among manufacturing companies. Some firms have adapted to cost pressures from minimum wage increases, while downsizing inventory has helped lower operating costs. However, sentiment remains largely negative, with over 15 percent of companies reporting financial deterioration compared to those seeing improvement.

Business leaders across the sector also express a grim outlook for the broader economy, resulting in a cautious approach to investment. This year and next, most firms plan to rely on their own funds for capital expenditures, with only 25% seeking bank loans to supplement financing.

The M3 money supply saw a modest rise compared to last month, though it has largely stagnated this year. Corporate investment remains low, as reflected in muted demand for business loans. While household borrowing is relatively stronger, mortgage interest has dipped significantly since June, indicating broader financial caution among consumers.

Panattoni Park Bolesławiec welcomes first tenant, Toyota Boshoku Poland

Panattoni has officially inaugurated its newly constructed 50,300 sqm logistics park in Bolesławiec, Lower Silesia, with Toyota Boshoku Poland signing on as the first tenant. The automotive supplier will occupy a 6,500 sqm warehouse in the development, strategically located near Toyota Boshoku Poland’s headquarters to facilitate efficient logistics and operations.

Toyota Boshoku Poland, a subsidiary of the global Toyota Boshoku Group, specializes in the production of car seats, components, and interior fittings. The company’s choice to establish a warehouse at Panattoni Park Bolesławiec reflects both the location’s proximity to its main production center and its access to critical transport routes for markets in Western Europe. The warehouse will enhance Toyota Boshoku’s ability to support nearby production facilities and expedite the movement of products across borders.

“Leasing space in Park Bolesławiec is essential to meet our logistics needs,” said Kamil Suchorski, Vice-President of Toyota Boshoku Poland. “The location’s proximity to our main factory—where we produce parts for over 500,000 vehicles annually—combined with excellent road links, makes it ideal for managing our supply chain efficiently.”

Damian Kowalczyk, Development Director at Panattoni, celebrated the partnership: “We are thrilled that Toyota Boshoku Poland has chosen Panattoni Park Bolesławiec. This lease aligns with our strategy to deliver modern warehouse solutions in prime locations. Lower Silesia is increasingly viewed as a gateway to Europe, and our facilities are becoming vital links in the logistics chains of global players.”

Panattoni Park Bolesławiec offers exceptional road connectivity, located just 50 km from the German border via the A4 motorway toward Dresden and 80 km from the border via the A18 toward Berlin. The park is equipped with 184 parking spaces for cars, twelve HGV spaces, and 91 loading docks, making it an ideal site for logistics, e-commerce, and manufacturing enterprises looking to expand their European footprint.

Mateusz Gessler extends lease for ĆMA and Warszawski Sen at Hala Koszyki for five more years

Renowned restaurateur Mateusz Gessler has renewed the lease agreements for his acclaimed Warsaw eateries, ĆMA and Warszawski Sen, securing their place in Hala Koszyki for another five years. Both restaurants, fixtures in the iconic Hala Koszyki since its launch, recently celebrated eight years of serving Warsaw’s food lovers and cultural enthusiasts.

Hala Koszyki, Poland’s pioneering food hall, has established itself as a culinary and social landmark in Warsaw, attracting locals and tourists alike with its unique mix of dining experiences. Combining food, art, and atmosphere, Koszyki has redefined the city’s gastronomic landscape. Gessler’s restaurants, which have been integral to this evolution, are widely recognized for shaping Warsaw’s contemporary food culture. The renewal reflects a continued partnership between Hala Koszyki and Gessler, along with his co-managers Łukasz Henryk Sagan and Joel Birman.

“I’m thrilled to remain part of this innovative project that has transformed Warsaw’s dining scene,” said Gessler. “We approach each day with the same passion we had at the beginning, constantly seeking new ways to delight our guests and make their time with us memorable.”

ĆMA, a 24-hour restaurant inspired by urban cuisine, will soon undergo a renovation aimed at appealing to a new generation of patrons, including Gen Z diners. With its compact 122-square-meter space, ĆMA has built a loyal following by merging modern aesthetics with Polish culinary traditions, offering a unique venue for both dining and conversation.

Meanwhile, Warszawski Sen, a 280-square-meter venue designed with sleek, dynamic interiors, offers a modern Polish menu developed by Gessler and head chef Robert Kondziela. The space, which hosts events for up to 100 guests, provides patrons with a full sensory experience, blending culinary and visual artistry.

Piotr Krowicki, Marketing Manager of Hala Koszyki at Globalworth Poland, praised Gessler’s contributions: “Through ĆMA and Warszawski Sen, Mateusz Gessler has helped craft the unique atmosphere that defines Hala Koszyki. We share a vision of creating a space that combines culinary, artistic, and social experiences, honoring local flavors and traditions while keeping pace with the city’s vibrant pulse.”

Hala Koszyki is currently expanding its food and beverage offerings, with renovations planned for Tuk-Tuk, a Thai restaurant, and Curry Leaves, a celebrated Indian eatery. These upgrades are part of Koszyki’s commitment to evolving alongside Warsaw’s dynamic culinary scene.

The venue’s impact extends beyond dining, as demonstrated by recent accolades. Hala Koszyki was a finalist in the 2024 Food Business Awards and was recently awarded the Superbrands Emblem for the second time, underscoring its status as a trusted and beloved destination. Additionally, Koszyki hosts an ongoing calendar of festivals, concerts, and themed events, enhancing its role as a community hub where Warsaw’s diverse crowd can meet, enjoy, and be inspired.

For eight years, Hala Koszyki has remained a magnet for unique culinary experiences, and with Gessler’s extended commitment, it’s set to remain a cornerstone of Warsaw’s gastronomic and cultural landscape.

Germany: Residential real estate sentiment rises amid mixed office outlook

In an encouraging shift, the real estate market sentiment for residential property has brightened, with investor optimism edging higher compared to the previous year. Institutional investors, asset managers, and other stakeholders expressed growing confidence in apartment buildings and condominiums, with expectations set for price increases in these segments over the next year, according to the 2024 sentiment survey by RUECKERCONSULT, commissioned by HIH Invest Real Estate and Ypsilon Steuerberatungsgesellschaft. The survey, drawing responses from 161 real estate market players, highlights a year-over-year improvement in market sentiment while remaining slightly in negative territory overall.

Market Mood Warms, Led by Residential and Logistics Sectors

The overall sentiment index posted a score of -0.06 on a scale from -3 (very poor) to +3 (very good), reflecting a modest year-over-year improvement of 0.37 points. Institutional investors and property managers rated market conditions most favorably, with respective scores of 0.40 and 0.63. Although project developers remained the least optimistic, their sentiment rose by 0.8 points, suggesting a positive shift following two challenging years. Peter Lenz, partner at Ypsilon Steuerberatungsgesellschaft, observed, “The industry appears to be gradually moving back to a more neutral mood, a sentiment echoed at recent events like Expo Real.”

Residential and Logistics Top Investment Preferences; Office Sector Faces Challenges

The survey forecasts a continued appetite for residential properties, with 79% of respondents predicting strong investor interest in rental apartments and 42% favoring logistics real estate. Demand for office and retail real estate, on the other hand, is expected to soften, with 57% of respondents anticipating lower office demand and 54% forecasting declining investor interest in office properties. Carsten Demmler, Managing Director at HIH Invest, commented on residential demand, stating, “Population growth and the trend toward smaller households continue to drive demand, especially given the limited supply of new housing.”

Rent Expectations: Strength in Residential, Weaker Prospects for Office and Retail

In the coming year, residential rent increases appear likely, with 94% of respondents forecasting rises, while 62% expect rents to climb by around 5%. Logistics rents are also poised to increase, with 43% of survey participants expecting a 5% rise, and a smaller group anticipating even stronger growth. Conversely, the outlook for office rents remains muted. Approximately 76% of respondents expect office rents to either decline or stagnate, with 45% predicting a decrease and only 24% expecting growth. According to Felix Meyen, HIH Invest’s Managing Director, “While demand for prime office space in central business districts remains steady, outdated stock in secondary locations will likely struggle, increasing rent disparities.”

Price Forecasts: Rising Values for Residential and Logistics, Declines for Office and Retail

Notably, residential price expectations have shifted upward. In 2023, most respondents anticipated falling prices for multi-family buildings, but this year, 63% expect values to rise. The logistics segment follows a similar trend, with 52% forecasting price increases. Meanwhile, the commercial outlook remains less optimistic: 59% anticipate falling prices for office properties, and 49% expect retail prices to drop.

A-Cities Remain Preferred Office Investment Markets; B-Cities Dominate Residential and Logistics

A-cities hold the highest appeal for office investments, with 73% of respondents pinpointing these areas as top opportunities, while residential and logistics investments are expected to perform best in B-cities. Notably, 47% of respondents favor B-cities for residential investments, reflecting a strategic shift as investors seek high-growth potential beyond the primary cities.

The sentiment survey, conducted from late August to late September 2024, underscores a resilient residential and logistics market in the face of broader challenges, with institutional investors positioning themselves for long-term growth across diversified sectors.

Vladimír Bolek, IAD Investments, joins the jury committee for the CIJ Awards Slovakia 2024

Vladimír Bolek is a Member of the Board at IAD Investments in Slovakia, playing a key role in the strategic management and decision-making of the company. With his extensive expertise in finance and investment management, Bolek contributes significantly to the firm’s growth and success. IAD Investments is one of Slovakia’s leading asset management companies, and Bolek’s leadership helps steer its focus on delivering value to clients through diversified investment solutions. His insight and experience make him a pivotal figure in navigating the complexities of the Slovak investment landscape.

The CIJ Awards Slovakia 2024, the premier event honoring excellence in real estate development, is set to take place this year on the 20th November at the Radisson BLU Carlton Hotel, Bratislava, bringing together the most influential players in the Slovak property market. As the most anticipated industry event of the year, the CIJ Awards continue to recognize and celebrate outstanding achievements in real estate, development, and property management across Slovakia.

Now in its 20th year, the CIJ Awards Slovakia is organized by CIJ Europe, the leading real estate news and event platform in Central and Eastern Europe. The awards have become a benchmark for excellence, with a reputation for highlighting the highest standards of quality, innovation, and leadership in the real estate sector.

For more information about the CIJ Awards Slovakia 2024, including details on how to enter, sponsorship opportunities, and event registration, please visit the official CIJ Awards website on the link below:

Poland Residential Sale Survey: How are new apartments selling

How does the suspension of the Loan to Start affect the housing market? How are sales going? Who is buying? Is it possible to count on a discount? What is the current situation in the development market?

Tomasz Kaleta, managing director of sales and marketing at Develia
Uncertainty about the launch and terms of the “Startup Credit” program has persisted for many months. However, since the beginning of its announcement, we have been paying attention to the limited impact it may have on the housing market. Our estimates suggest that about 10-15 percent of customers are waiting for the introduction of this program. Currently, the proportions of apartment buyers with credit and cash are spread more or less equally.

We can say that the market has returned to relative equilibrium, and the prices of apartments in the primary market are relatively stable. Although the situation may vary depending on local markets, there is currently no reason to expect a drop in prices in Poland’s largest cities. Customers can count only on small promotions for selected apartments in some developments.

Zbigniew Juroszek, CEO of Atal
We observe that some buyers are holding off on signing contracts due to the lack of a decision on government support for buyers. Invariably, we are of the opinion that it will not play such a key role as some commentators have predicted. Moreover, its selectivity in terms of target group will not be a factor in housing prices. The end of the period of suspense and uncertainty, i.e., a clear decision on whether or not to launch the support program, would have a similar effect in that most customers would convert their current bookings into development contracts.

What would definitely improve the demand as well as the supply situation would be a reduction in interest rates and, as a result, a reduction in the cost of mortgages for customers and investment credit, i.e. development companies. Since the end of the vacations, we see that more customers are deciding to buy apartments. We expect that the fourth quarter, which has begun, will bring an increase in contracting. Accordingly, we are consistently meeting construction schedules and sales launches.

Agata Zambrzycka, director of sales and marketing at Aurec Home
Due to the state’s recent flood-related spending, the introduction of the “Credit to Start” program in 2025 seems unlikely. Currently, the housing market is witnessing, on the one hand, a dynamic development of social housing, which since the beginning of this year has recorded an increase in the number of completed apartments by more than 76 percent compared to the same period last year. On the other hand, due to the lack of an active government subsidy program, the offer of available apartments in Poland’s seven largest real estate markets has reached record levels.

Despite the current market situation, we are not giving up on our plans to develop new projects. We are working intensively to maintain a high standard in line with customers’ expectations. We are systematically commissioning apartments from successive stages of the Miasteczko Jutrzenki project – currently the Lavender District, where we offer a parking space free of charge to selected units. In March of this year, we also began selling apartments from the Fabrica Ursus development, which refers to historical elements of the former Ursus factory. Thanks to our own financial resources, we offer selected high-standard apartments priced from PLN 13,367/sqm.

Magdalena Gosk, Sales Leader BPI Real Estate Poland
In the third quarter of 2024, the real estate market was characterized by a typical seasonal slowdown in apartment sales during the holiday season. During this time, as expected, customer activity was lower. However, with the onset of September, we saw a marked recovery, as evidenced by the return of customers who postponed their purchase decisions until after the vacations. Although we are seeing an extended decision-making process on the part of buyers, interest in our offerings remains high.

We are optimistic about the coming months, expecting this trend to continue. We are constantly introducing various special offers and discounts for our customers. However, we see that customers are showing particular interest in our investments due to their excellent location, and the fact that three of the projects we offer are already ready for delivery is also an additional advantage.

Joanna Chojecka, sales and marketing director for Warsaw and Wrocław at Robyg Group
We believe that government programs are important, but they do not significantly affect the development of the residential market in Poland. Demand for apartments persists all the time, mainly because of the significant gap that is still recorded in Poland. Therefore, the support of Poles in the ability to buy their M has much more impact on issues concerning the general economy, fertility rates, etc.

From the point of view of developers, however, much more important are the opportunities to increase supply – that is, to introduce apartments to the offer. We keep calling for speeding up local government administrative procedures. This is a much more important aspect in order to be able to offer Poles the largest possible range of apartments, including promotions. We constantly note the activity of buyers.

We believe that the demand for apartments is not as tied to government programs as some people portray it, and banks still have interesting financing offers for apartment buyers. We support our clients in obtaining optimal financing and in credit procedures.

Andrzej Gutowski, Sales Director of Ronson Development
The suspension of the “Loan to Start” program has caused many customers, tired of waiting, to go on a shopping spree. This limits the ability to give discounts, especially in large cities. Major reductions are not expected, but prices will remain stable. At present, buyers are mainly customers with 50-60 percent of their own contribution, who support themselves with credit, so interest rates are not decisive for them. The 2025 budget lacks funds for new housing programs, and the government is focusing on other activities, which means new support is unlikely to come. Although 2024 may be weaker than 2023, but the housing market remains stable.

Susanna Należyta, commercial director at Eco Classic
We are currently facing limited demand due to high interest rates. Many people simply do not have the opportunity to purchase an apartment. The introduction of the program in its announced form would certainly help primarily those purchasing housing for their own needs. We estimate that the restrictions on the BK2% program and the large supply will cause a recovery, but will not contribute to price increases.

Marcin Michalec, CEO of Okam Capital
Many young and lower-income people have been waiting for the entry into force of the “Loan to Start” program, which would allow them to realize their plans to buy their own apartment. Those interested in buying units in the Lodz market can take advantage of the special offer we have prepared for the Lodz Real Estate & Home Construction Fair. In the NOW project located in the vicinity of the New Center of Łódź, modern apartments can be purchased at prices starting from PLN 350,000. On the other hand, in the case of the PROGRESS Zone, located in the very center at Piotrkowska Street/Kosciuszko Avenue, a discount of PLN 50 thousand is waiting for customers to purchase the units, as well as the opportunity to finish the apartments with architects from the KODO studio. We also anticipate a special offer on the occasion of Open Days at Warsaw’s Cityflow project.

Damian Tomasik, CEO of Alter Investment
The suspension of the “Loan to Start” program for the moment adversely affects the market. Any uncertainty that is created by the announcements of the programs and the subsequent withholding of decisions puts buyers at a great disadvantage. Those who today have the need to change their apartments often cannot make a decision by postponing the purchase until clear information about the program is announced, while those who no longer have that time, when the program enters, will lose the opportunity to improve their living conditions. This has a significant impact on the housing market, especially for young people, who often make up a large portion of the program’s recipients.

Today’s new housing market is characterized by high dynamics, but also by considerable stratification. In large cities, we continue to see high demand, especially among wealthier individuals and investors who are looking for property as a security of capital in uncertain times. By contrast, in smaller towns and on the outskirts of metropolitan areas, demand is more sensitive to the availability of credit and the support of government programs.

The main group of buyers are investors, people with more equity and those who are less dependent on mortgages. On the other hand, young families and those just starting out face a greater challenge, especially after the suspension of support programs.

Such a situation may also accelerate the investment decisions of those who are thinking about buying an apartment, fearing further price increases. In the longer term, Poland’s housing market still has great potential, and demand for apartments, especially in large cities, will remain high and unsatisfied.

Source: dompress.pl
Photo: BPI, Czysta 4, Wrocław

Andrej Mardiak a Partner at Mayflower joins the jury committee for the CIJ Awards Slovakia 2024

Andrej Mardiak a Partner at Mayflower joins the jury committee for the CIJ Awards Slovakia 2024.

Andrej Mardiak is a Partner at Mayflower Slovakia, where he plays a key role in guiding the firm’s strategy and business operations. With his extensive experience in the Slovak market, Andrej contributes to the company’s growth and development, focusing on enhancing service offerings and delivering results to clients. His leadership and expertise help drive Mayflower Slovakia’s success in navigating complex market dynamics.

Tomáš Ostatník, Holland & Company joins the jury committee for the CIJ Awards Slovakia 2024

Tomáš Ostatník is a Real Estate Executive at Holland & Company Slovakia. He is a seasoned professional in the real estate sector, with extensive experience in property acquisitions, sales, and development projects. Tomáš plays a key role in expanding the company’s real estate portfolio, focusing on strategic growth and value creation. He has expertise across commercial, residential, and mixed-use developments and is known for his leadership and success in real estate transactions in Slovakia. At Holland & Company, Tomáš aligns the firm’s investments with market opportunities and client needs.

MotoBarometer 2024: Chinese electric cars set to dominate European market by 2035

Over half of Poland’s automotive industry experts (53%) believe that Chinese manufacturers will lead the electric vehicle (EV) market in Europe by 2035, according to the MotoBarometer 2024 report, conducted by Exact x Forestall (formerly Exact Systems). This sentiment is echoed across most of the 11 countries surveyed, including Germany, Spain, Turkey, and Hungary, where a majority of respondents foresee a similar future for Chinese electric cars.

While in France and Romania, European brands were seen as potential leaders, with 51% and 48% of respondents favoring local manufacturers, Poland showed less confidence in European brands. Only 32% of Polish respondents believed European companies would dominate EV sales by 2035, and just 4% predicted U.S. brands would lead.

“Although there are still more than ten years left for European electromobility to evolve, industry representatives have already passed judgment. They see Chinese manufacturers as the frontrunners in the future EV market,” said Jacek Opala, President of Exact x Forestall. “This should serve as a wake-up call for Europe’s automotive sector to formulate effective strategies to remain competitive. Time is of the essence.”

The report also highlights strong support for higher tariffs on Chinese electric car imports. In Poland, 66% of respondents favor such measures, and 73% believe further actions should be taken to limit the influx of Chinese EVs. This sentiment is widely shared across Europe, with only Slovakia and Hungary showing less than half of respondents in favor of new tariffs (48% and 46%, respectively).

While increased tariffs are seen as a way to protect Europe’s EV industry, the report warns of potential negative consequences. Nearly half of Polish respondents (46%) fear that higher tariffs could push Chinese manufacturers to relocate their factories to Europe, allowing them to bypass tariffs and continue selling cheaper vehicles. Another 39% are concerned about deteriorating relations between the EU and China, and 37% worry that higher tariffs could drive up prices for European-made cars due to the rising costs of Chinese components.

“Chinese manufacturers building factories in Europe could be a double-edged sword,” said Opala. “Countries like Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia may welcome the investment due to job creation and increased importance in the automotive supply chain. However, this move could allow Chinese companies to flood the market with cheaper vehicles, further eroding the competitiveness of European brands. Price remains the most important factor for European consumers when choosing an electric car, and this is where Europe is increasingly losing ground.”

The MotoBarometer 2024 survey gathered responses from 1,001 industry representatives across 11 countries, including car manufacturers and suppliers of components such as wipers, car windows, and steering columns. The findings provide insight into the shifting dynamics of the global automotive industry as it navigates the challenges of electromobility and the growing influence of Chinese EV manufacturers in Europe.

Source: Exact x Forestall and ISBnews

KPMG Report: Economic uncertainty tops CFO concerns for 2025

Nearly 40% of CFOs in Poland have identified economic uncertainty as the biggest challenge for 2025, according to a new KPMG report prepared in collaboration with ACCA. The report, titled “Modern CFO in a Transforming Company”, highlights key concerns among finance leaders, including supply chain management, legal regulations, and talent management.

However, despite these challenges, CFOs see a silver lining in the digitization and automation of finance. According to the report, nearly half of the surveyed CFOs pointed to invoicing, payment processing, and accounting as the areas with the greatest potential for automation in the coming year. Implementing modern technologies in these processes could result in significant cost savings and improved accuracy in financial operations.

“Digital technologies are revolutionizing the finance sector. Tools like artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and advanced data analytics allow for more effective financial management and real-time decision-making,” said Agnieszka Jarosz, Managing Director of ACCA for Eastern and Northern Europe. “As these tools evolve, the digital skills required of CFOs are expanding. CFOs must now manage not only finances but also the technology that supports their business activities.”

Despite this optimism about automation, the report revealed that many companies still face obstacles in implementing new technologies. Two-thirds of CFOs admitted that they have not yet automated their tax processes. The most frequently cited barriers were challenges in integrating new systems with existing IT infrastructure (39%) and frequent changes in tax legislation (37%).

In the area of transfer pricing, less than 20% of companies plan to automate these processes in the next 12 months, indicating that many firms still rely on traditional solutions. The slow pace of adoption reflects the broader hesitation around technological transformation in finance.

One growing area of concern is non-financial reporting, particularly around environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. Although EU regulations are becoming more stringent, 42% of companies in Poland neither report nor monitor non-financial indicators. Furthermore, those that do engage in ESG reporting are primarily those required to comply with the EU’s Non-Financial Reporting Directive (CSRD). Of the companies that do report ESG metrics, 40% cited challenges with data transparency and accuracy.

Artificial intelligence is also emerging as a critical tool in financial transformation, but adoption remains slow. Only 7% of Polish companies have fully implemented AI in their financial processes, a delay compared to other digital solutions. However, 29% of companies are in the early stages of AI adoption, while 40% are either in the process of prototyping or planning to implement AI.

The primary benefits CFOs see in AI include enhanced accuracy and more complex data analysis, with 42% of respondents highlighting these as key advantages. AI also offers opportunities to automate routine financial tasks like invoicing and accounting, improving operational efficiency. Yet, many companies are held back by concerns over the transparency of AI algorithms and a lack of qualified personnel to manage these systems.

The KPMG survey was conducted in August 2024 using telephone interviews with 150 senior finance leaders across industries, including construction, real estate, energy, pharmaceuticals, IT, and logistics. The findings provide a comprehensive snapshot of the opportunities and challenges facing CFOs as they navigate a rapidly transforming business environment.

Source: KPMG

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