European logistics real estate markets face subdued growth through 2030

European logistics real estate markets are expected to experience muted momentum over the coming years, with selective growth concentrated in established core locations, according to the latest GARBE PYRAMID MAP published by GARBE Research in cooperation with Oxford Economics.

The forecast, which covers 88 of 122 logistics regions across Europe, reflects a more volatile economic and geopolitical environment and the absence of strong cyclical growth drivers. While average annual prime rent growth reached 5.7% between Q4 2020 and Q4 2025, the outlook for the next five years points to a significantly slower pace of around 1.9% per year.

On the yield side, the report indicates a stabilisation phase following the market correction that began in 2022. Average prime yields across the analysed regions increased from 4.6% in mid-2022 to 5.7%, but recent quarters suggest a gradual return towards yield compression. By 2030, average prime yields across the forecast markets are expected to decline moderately to around 5.2%, with most regions seeing slight compression and others remaining broadly stable.

Markets adapt to prolonged uncertainty

According to GARBE, logistics real estate markets are increasingly decoupling from immediate geopolitical developments. While global events continue to shape sentiment, their direct impact on market performance has become less immediate and more uneven across regions.

Tobias Kassner, Head of Research & ESG at GARBE Industrial, noted that market participants are gradually adjusting to ongoing uncertainty and resuming activity after several years of correction. He added that future performance will be driven less by cyclical recovery and more by location-specific fundamentals.

In this environment, operational performance and asset management have become more critical. Tom Herrschaft, Head of Real Estate Management at GARBE Industrial, emphasised the importance of stable cash flows, active lease and tenant management, and close control at both asset and portfolio level.

Selective rental growth in core markets

Despite the overall slowdown, the forecast identifies continued growth potential in a number of European logistics markets. Prime rents are expected to increase by more than 10% by 2030 in 45 regions, mainly in established core markets in Germany, the United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands.

Munich stands out as a particularly strong performer, supported by sustained demand, limited supply and a robust regional economy. In general, the most attractive return profiles are expected in liquid core markets where moderate rental growth is combined with stable yields.

United Kingdom and France remain resilient

In the United Kingdom, logistics markets continue to show resilience despite ongoing consolidation. Demand remains strong in established regions such as the Midlands and North West England, supported by interest from Asian e-commerce players, defence-related industries and aviation. Limited availability of modern space continues to support rental levels, particularly in well-connected locations near ports.

The French logistics market has also demonstrated stability, with demand driven by both physical retail and e-commerce. Additional support comes from defence and aviation activities, notably in regions such as Toulouse. Investor and occupier focus is increasingly shifting towards modern, ESG-compliant assets, while vacancy remains concentrated in older stock, particularly in northern France.

Structural demand drivers remain in place

GARBE’s analysis concludes that longer-term structural trends are likely to continue shaping Europe’s logistics real estate markets. E-commerce, reconfiguration of supply chains, increased regionalisation of production and a growing focus on strategic resilience and defence-related industries are expected to provide ongoing, though selective, demand impulses across borders over the coming decade.

For more detailed statistics and methodological information, see the interactive GARBE PYRAMID MAP.

Savills Matcha Index highlights role of café culture in technology-driven cities

The Savills Matcha Index suggests that café culture and everyday urban amenities play a measurable role in the long-term attractiveness of technology-oriented cities. According to the index, cities that offer a well-developed environment for daily life, work and informal interaction tend to be more successful in attracting technology companies and skilled professionals.

Developed by Savills, the Matcha Index uses café availability and quality, alongside the price of a matcha latte, as indicators of how cities perform in terms of services, lifestyle and social infrastructure. While the index is intentionally light in concept, Savills notes that the price of matcha is not assessed in isolation but serves as a proxy for the wider urban ecosystem.

Pavel Novák, Head of Office Agency at Savills, said: “While the Matcha Index may appear lifestyle-oriented, it actually provides insight into how cities function. The availability of services, measured through café infrastructure, supports everyday interactions and informal networking, which in the long term increases the attractiveness of cities for technology companies and other key businesses.”

Global comparison

In the global ranking, Tokyo placed first, supported by a broad café network, strong availability of matcha-based products and comparatively moderate pricing. London followed in second place, reflecting its extensive independent café scene and established coffee culture.

Savills notes that the results reinforce the view that successful technology cities are shaped not only by labour markets or office supply, but also by the quality of everyday urban life. Environments that naturally combine work, services and social interaction are seen as more resilient and competitive over time.

Price differences between cities

The index also highlights significant variation in matcha prices across global cities. New York recorded the highest average price at €5.34, followed by San Francisco (€5.29) and Los Angeles (€5.26). Prague ranked ninth, with an average price of €4.59.

Lower prices were observed in cities such as Toronto and Seoul, while Beijing recorded the lowest average price at €3.10.

Prague office hubs in focus

Within Prague, Savills identifies Karlín, Holešovice and Smíchov as key technology hubs, alongside other established locations such as Prague Chodov, Jinonice and Brno. The highest local matcha prices were recorded in Prague 4 – Chodov, averaging €5.90, followed by Karlín (including Palmovka) and Brno, where prices are around €4.51.

Novák added: “Specific examples in Prague include Karlín and the increasingly strong position of Holešovice. It is not just about new office developments, but about the entire ecosystem – services, cafés and public space. These factors are now decisive in determining where companies choose to locate and where people want to work.”

According to Savills, the Matcha Index underlines a broader trend: as competition between cities intensifies, the quality of everyday urban experience is becoming an increasingly important factor alongside traditional real estate and labour market considerations.

MLP Group launches new development phase at MLP Business Park Poznań

MLP Group has started a new phase of development at MLP Business Park Poznań, adding three office and warehouse buildings with a total gross leasable area of approximately 14,000 sq m. The facilities are being developed on a speculative basis, without pre-let agreements, and construction is being carried out by WPIP Construction as general contractor.

The new phase includes three office and showroom buildings combined with warehouse space and supporting infrastructure. One building will comprise a warehouse hall of nearly 4,000 sq m with a two-storey office component of around 1,400 sq m. The other two buildings will each offer warehouse space of approximately 3,500 sq m, complemented by single-storey office areas of about 700 sq m each.

According to the developer, the decision to proceed without pre-leasing is intended to maintain flexibility in adapting the space to future tenant requirements. WPIP Construction has previously delivered several completed buildings within the park and continues its cooperation with MLP Group on this phase.

Agnieszka Góźdź, Management Board Member and Chief Development Officer at MLP Group S.A., said: “The commencement of construction of further facilities at MLP Business Park Poznań confirms our consistent strategy of developing urban business parks. Projects of this kind respond directly to the needs of last-mile logistics operators as well as companies seeking modern, high-quality and representative office space in close proximity to the city centre. Delivering the investment on a speculative basis allows us to respond swiftly to market expectations and provide flexible solutions for tenants.”

Marek Mielnik, Vice President of the Management Board of WPIP Construction, added: “Our long-standing cooperation with MLP Group is entering another phase, which I am very pleased about. For our organisation, this represents a further driver for the development of WPIP Construction and a source of great pride. The investor’s trust is particularly important to us, as it enables us to continue working on such a large-scale and complex project in Poznań. Each subsequent phase brings new challenges, but also satisfaction from the results achieved through close collaboration.”

MLP Business Park Poznań is located at Wołczyńska Street, approximately 9 km from the city centre. Once fully completed, the park will offer around 49,900 sq m of space. The location provides access by both private and public transport, with nearby bus and tram stops, proximity to the PKP Junikowo railway station and direct access to the A2 motorway around 2.5 km away.

The project is primarily aimed at e-commerce operators and companies requiring an urban location combined with warehouse, office and commercial space. In line with its build-and-hold strategy, MLP Group will retain the completed assets in its portfolio and manage them internally.

Panattoni lets fourth UK logistics facility to EVRi at Burgess Hill

Panattoni has completed a new letting at Panattoni Park Burgess Hill, expanding EVRi’s logistics footprint in the UK. The transaction marks EVRi’s fourth facility within a Panattoni development, bringing the total space it occupies across Panattoni parks to around 245,000 sq ft.

The unit at Panattoni Park Burgess Hill will operate as a last-mile delivery unit, supporting parcel distribution across Sussex, Surrey and the wider South East. The site benefits from access to key A-road routes and onward motorway connections, making it suitable for time-sensitive distribution activities.

The letting follows Austin Racing’s move to the park in 2025 and reflects continued occupier demand for modern logistics space in the South East, where supply remains limited. Existing occupiers at the park include Roche, DPD, EMED Group and Austin Racing, with discussions ongoing for the remaining units.

Will Fennell, Development Manager, South East and London at Panattoni, said:

“We are pleased to be supporting EVRi’s continued growth with their fourth facility within a Panattoni Park. Burgess Hill is a highly strategic last-mile location, offering strong connectivity across the South East, and it continues to attract occupiers who value operational efficiency and access to labour and customers.

The success of the park, following recent lettings and ongoing discussions with occupiers, demonstrates the strength of demand for high-quality logistics space in this market and reinforces our commitment to investing in the South East.”

Panattoni Park Burgess Hill forms part of Panattoni’s South East portfolio and provides logistics accommodation designed to support both regional distribution and last-mile operations. The development comprises 11 speculative units, ranging from 8,142 sq ft to 147,408 sq ft, all available for tenant fit-out.

Leasing agents on the scheme are DTRE, Cogent, SHW and Vail Williams.

Oil market in 2025 marked by oversupply, weaker demand growth and heightened volatility

Global oil markets experienced their sharpest annual price decline in five years in 2025, shaped by persistent oversupply, slowing demand growth and recurring geopolitical disruptions, according to a report by Kamco Invest .

Crude prices fell for the third consecutive year. Brent crude declined by 17.7% year on year to close 2025 at USD 61.3 per barrel, while the OPEC reference basket fell by 18.2% to USD 61.0 per barrel. Prices started the year near USD 76 per barrel, peaked above USD 83 early on, and then trended downward, briefly recovering mid-year before slipping below USD 60 per barrel in December. The year ended with the market in contango, indicating expectations of continued oversupply into 2026 .

The report notes that geopolitical tensions remained a major source of short-term volatility throughout the year. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela, disruptions linked to shipping routes, and trade tensions triggered temporary price spikes, but these were insufficient to offset structural market imbalances. Toward the end of 2025, escalating tensions involving Venezuela and renewed sanctions contributed to brief price rebounds .

On the demand side, global oil demand growth was repeatedly revised downward during the year. Initial forecasts of around 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) were cut to approximately 0.7 mb/d by mid-year, the weakest growth since 2009, before being revised slightly higher to around 830,000 barrels per day by year-end. China’s role shifted notably, with demand growth slowing as fuel consumption plateaued amid rapid adoption of electric vehicles, expansion of LNG-powered transport and increased use of high-speed rail. Demand for petrochemical feedstocks, however, remained relatively strong .

Supply developments added further downward pressure on prices. World oil supply increased by about 2.0 mb/d in 2025, driven by higher output from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers. OPEC crude production averaged 27.6 mb/d, up from 26.6 mb/d in 2024, while non-OPEC supply also expanded. The gradual unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts from April 2025 resulted in a cumulative increase of around 2.9 mb/d by year-end, before further hikes were paused due to falling prices .

The United States remained a key contributor to global oversupply. US crude oil production reached a record average of 13.6 mb/d in 2025, reflecting continued growth in shale output. Shale production alone averaged around 10.4 mb/d, also a record level, reinforcing the supply-driven nature of the market imbalance .

Looking ahead, the report highlights a cautious outlook for prices. Consensus forecasts compiled by Bloomberg indicate Brent crude prices averaging close to USD 60 per barrel through 2026, with most projections clustered in the USD 55-65 range. While demand is expected to continue growing modestly in 2026 and 2027, supply growth—particularly outside OPEC-suggests that market rebalancing may remain gradual rather than immediate .

Slovakia records the fastest price growth in the euro area

Slovakia closed 2025 with the highest rate of price growth among eurozone countries, standing out at a time when inflation was easing across most of the currency bloc. While average consumer price growth in the euro area moved closer to the European Central Bank’s target, Slovakia followed a different trajectory, with prices rising at roughly double the eurozone average.

Within the wider European Union, only Romania—still outside the euro area—reported a higher pace of price increases. This places Slovakia among the countries facing the strongest pressure on household purchasing power despite the broader European trend toward stabilisation.

Economists attribute Slovakia’s divergence largely to domestic policy decisions rather than external shocks. Analysts note that fiscal measures introduced over the past year, aimed at consolidating public finances, have had a visible impact on consumer prices. These steps contrasted with developments in many other eurozone states, where inflation slowed more consistently throughout the year.

Price pressures in Slovakia began to accelerate again at the start of 2025 after a period of moderation. Central bank assessments indicate that changes in indirect taxation, including adjustments to value-added tax and the introduction of new levies, contributed significantly to the renewed increase. These measures affected a wide range of goods and services, feeding through to overall price levels.

The issue of rising prices has also carried political weight. During the election campaign, government representatives repeatedly promised relief for households through lower prices. However, the latest data suggest that these expectations have yet to materialise, and that domestic policy choices have instead added to inflationary pressures in the short term.

Looking ahead, analysts expect Slovakia’s price growth to remain above the eurozone average in the near term, even as inflation elsewhere continues to ease. While some stabilisation is anticipated over time, the gap between Slovakia and its eurozone peers highlights how national fiscal decisions can significantly influence inflation outcomes, even within a shared currency area.

HIH Invest sells justice centre in Erfurt to KGAL

HIH Invest has sold the justice centre located at Rudolfstraße 46 in Erfurt. The buyer is KGAL Investment Management GmbH & Co. KG. The transaction was structured as an asset deal and involved a property held in a fund managed by HIH Invest. The parties agreed not to disclose the purchase price.

The Erfurt Justice Centre serves as a central administrative and judicial location for the Free State of Thuringia, which is the sole tenant under a long-term lease. The fully let property offers approximately 19,400 sq m of rental space and provides 225 parking spaces, including 97 in an underground car park.

The building complex accommodates several judicial institutions, including the local court, the regional labour court, the regional social court and the public prosecutor’s office. Additional uses include service areas and a staff canteen.

According to Daniel Asmus, Head of Transaction Management Office Germany at HIH Invest, the sale reflects strong investor demand for long-term leased properties with public-sector tenants. He noted that the asset combines stable income with long-term prospects at the location.

Completed in 1999, the property is situated in Erfurt’s Petersberg administrative district. It features flexible floor layouts, with standard floors of around 2,900 sq m that can be subdivided into up to four units. Ceiling heights exceeding three metres allow for a range of office configurations.

BNP Paribas Real Estate supported the marketing of the property, while legal advice was provided by Norton Rose Fulbright.

Photo source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

Construction sector in Germany remains under pressure as insolvencies rise

The German construction industry continues to face significant challenges, with the impact of the federal government’s special investment fund yet to translate into tangible relief for the sector. Between January and October 2025, 3,174 insolvencies were recorded in construction, representing an increase of 9.3% compared with the same period a year earlier, according to data cited by Atradius.

Frank Liebold, Country Manager Germany at Atradius, said that sentiment across the sector has deteriorated, although he noted that conditions could stabilise and improve slightly in the course of 2026. He pointed to continued pressure from rising material costs, a persistent shortage of skilled labour, and lengthy approval and permitting procedures, all of which are contributing to payment delays and higher insolvency risks.

After a relatively stable period in 2020 and 2021, the construction industry has experienced growing financial stress. Atradius reports that non-payment notifications have nearly doubled over the past five years, reflecting tighter liquidity and weaker payment discipline among market participants.

Residential construction remains weakest segment

Residential construction continues to be the most challenging part of the market. Government targets of 400,000 new homes per year have been missed consistently, with an estimated 220,000 units completed in 2025. Industry estimates suggest that Germany will require around 800,000 additional homes by 2027–2028.

At the same time, the German Construction Industry Association reported that 215,500 residential and non-residential units were approved between January and November 2025, an increase of 11.3% year on year. While this points to some improvement in forward indicators, industry leaders remain cautious. Peter Hübner, CEO of Strabag, described 2025 as a lost year for the sector.

Commercial real estate construction also remains subdued. Demand for office space has declined since the pandemic, reflecting structural changes in working patterns, including the sustained use of remote and hybrid work models.

Gradual recovery expected from 2026

The financial scope created by the government’s special fund is expected to affect the construction sector only gradually. So far, this has not been reflected in order books or business surveys, partly because existing backlogs must be worked through before new projects can start.

According to forecasts from Oxford Economics, total construction output in Germany is expected to increase by around 1.4% in 2026, with stronger growth anticipated in subsequent years. Residential construction, which contracted by an estimated 4.3% in 2025, is forecast to return to modest growth of around 1.1% this year. The rise in building permits and the effects of monetary easing suggest that investment activity may have reached a low point.

Oxford Economics also expects non-residential construction to grow by 2.4% in 2026, while civil engineering output is projected to increase by 1.2%. In the longer term, civil engineering is likely to benefit most from public investment, particularly given Germany’s infrastructure needs. Estimates indicate that around 4,000 bridges require renovation in the short to medium term.

Structural constraints remain

Despite these more positive medium-term expectations, Atradius warns that structural obstacles continue to limit the sector’s capacity to respond. The shortage of skilled workers remains a key constraint, raising concerns about whether planned housing and infrastructure projects can be delivered at the required pace.

Bureaucratic requirements also continue to slow project delivery. Civil engineering projects typically require between 15 and 25 permits and technical approvals before construction can begin, while road projects may need more than 30 permits and expert assessments.

According to Atradius, addressing labour shortages and streamlining approval processes will be critical if the construction industry is to benefit fully from public investment programmes and achieve a more sustainable recovery.

Source: Atradius

CAERUS Debt Investments appoints Markus Kreuter as Chief Operating Officer

CAERUS Debt Investments AG has appointed Markus Kreuter to its Management Board as Chief Operating Officer (COO), effective 1 February 2026. He will succeed Bernhard Berg, who is scheduled to retire in spring 2026.

Kreuter brings more than 35 years of experience in financing, including around three decades in commercial real estate finance. Prior to joining CAERUS, he served for over four years as Managing Director of Zinsbaustein GmbH in Berlin.

His professional background includes senior roles in credit risk management, client services, project development finance and transaction advisory. He has previously held positions at Deutsche Bank AG, DekaBank, Vivico Real Estate GmbH (now CA Immo Deutschland), Jones Lang LaSalle SE and The Flag Group.

Kreuter is a qualified real estate economist (ebs) and completed the Executive Management Program in International Real Estate (EMPIRE) at IREBS in cooperation with Bocconi University and ESSEC Business School in 2015. In addition to his executive roles, he has been active as a speaker and moderator at industry events and teaches at academic institutions including IREBS and EBS. He is also a member of gif Gesellschaft für immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e.V. and immoebs e.V.

Michael Morgenroth, CEO of CAERUS and Managing Partner at CapMan Real Asset Debt, said that Kreuter’s appointment will support continuity in the company’s management and ensure a smooth transition following the planned retirement of the current COO.

ElectroPutere Mall in Craiova expands following EUR 22 million investment

Catinvest has completed a 10,500 sq m extension of ElectroPutere Mall, following a total investment of EUR 22 million. As a result of the expansion, the shopping centre’s total retail area has increased to approximately 62,000 sq m, placing it among the three largest retail malls outside Bucharest.

The new extension introduces two international retailers to Craiova and Dolj County for the first time. Primark and Half Price will open their first stores in the region within the mall.

Alongside the increase in retail space, the project includes an expansion of parking facilities. ElectroPutere Parc now provides more than 3,150 parking spaces. A new access point from Decebal Boulevard has also been added to improve accessibility and traffic circulation.

With the completion of the latest phase, ElectroPutere Parc exceeds 110,000 sq m of total retail space, combining the shopping mall and adjacent retail park. The tenant mix includes brands such as Auchan, Leroy Merlin, Decathlon, Media Galaxy, H&M, C&A, Bebe Tei and Farmacia Tei, as well as Inspire Cinema. The expansion strengthens the role of the site as a regional retail and leisure destination in south-west Romania.

Bertrand Catteau, CEO of Catinvest Group, said: “This extension represents a strategic step in the evolution of ElectroPutere Parc and reflects our confidence in Craiova’s potential as a regional retail hub. By increasing the retail area, attracting major international anchor tenants and investing in infrastructure and accessibility, we are developing a long-term retail destination.”

Catinvest Eastern Europe continues to focus on phased development of retail projects adapted to local market conditions. The company’s strategy emphasises flexible retail formats intended to support long-term performance and regional economic activity.

Catinvest owns and operates several retail assets in Romania, including Orhideea and Esplanada Pantelimon in Bucharest, Tom in Constanța and ElectroPutere Mall in Craiova. Within ElectroPutere Parc, the group also operates ElectroPutere Offices and Aparthotel Craiova. Internationally, its portfolio includes projects such as Savoya Park in Budapest and Borska Pole in Plzeň. Overall, the group owns and manages more than 525,000 sq m of retail space across France and Central and Eastern Europe.

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