The revival in the credit market has sparked questions about its impact on housing sales. Are property developers seeing a rise in interest from buyers for new flats? And despite the absence of preferential credit options and government support, is customer activity increasing? These pressing topics were explored in a survey conducted by the real estate platform dompress.pl, shedding light on current trends and challenges in the housing market.
Tomasz Kaleta, managing director of sales and marketing at Develia
Currently, the number of mortgage applications has almost reached the level from before the pandemic, the war and the sharp increases in interest rates, which significantly increased the cost of credit and lowered the creditworthiness of buyers. It is worth noting that this is happening without the support of any government programme. The data show a gradual increase in demand for housing, which is reflected in the sales figures of recent months. In the seven largest markets, it amounts to around 3,500 flats per month. In comparison, 2,500 units were sold during the holiday season.
Although we still have not reached last year’s sales levels or the recent average of around 4,500 units per month, an upward trend is visible. It is noteworthy that some of the customers who held off buying while waiting for the government programme are returning to the market. An important stimulus is the interest rate cut announced for 2025. Banks with excess liquidity have further reduced their margins, so that loans with interest rates as low as 7 per cent are available on the market.
Zbigniew Juroszek, CEO of Atal
In the following autumn months we see that demand is higher than in the holidays this year. However, the uncertainty in the property market caused by unclear signals from those in power regarding support programmes for selected groups of buyers is still being felt. Nonetheless, we observe that more and more customers, impatient with the wait, are deciding to finalise transactions.
Our data also shows significant changes in the structure of demand. Difficult access to credit and very expensive money have resulted in customers requesting smaller and smaller flats. Large and expensive units are also selling. However, the middle part of the offer, which would normally be of particular interest to families, is not finding buyers. A subsidy programme or a significant improvement in financing conditions would increase traffic in this segment, for which we are very well prepared with our offer.
Monika Kudełko, Director of Strategy and Marketing Communications at Activ Investment
We are seeing a stable interest in our offer, although the current market conditions and the large supply encourage customers to make more prudent purchase decisions, and the purchase process is often prolonged. Nevertheless, October turned out to be an exceptionally good month for us, which can be partly linked to the improvement in the credit market. However, the key role was played by attractive price offers and the availability of flats in convenient locations, which effectively increased the sales dynamics.
A good example is the ŚwiatoVida investment in Warsaw, where we recorded record sales – as many as 22 flats in one month. This result shows that even in challenging market conditions, well-designed projects in attractive locations still attract customers. The introduction of periodic promotions and a well-thought-out sales strategy are important elements that allow us to respond effectively to customers’ needs and remain highly active in a competitive market.
Andrzej Gutowski, Sales Director of Ronson Development
We have noticed a greater interest of customers in purchasing a flat in recent weeks. But it is worth noting that this is a temporary increase in activity. It is due to several factors. First of all, developers are conducting intensive promotional activities to encourage customers to make their purchase decisions. In addition, the approaching end of the year makes developer companies strive to fulfil their sales plans. As a result, customers, seeing attractive offers, try to take advantage of the opportunity, which further fuels interest. We anticipate that this boost will expire in mid-December.
Adrian Sączek, director of the Developer Sales Department at the Mint of Poland
Interest in purchasing flats is at a stable level, despite high interest rates. A significant share of buyers are cash customers. A flat is still treated as a safe asset to secure savings, with the prospect of an increase in value in the future, especially in large urban centres.
As for customers purchasing a flat on credit, they are usually those buying their first property for their own needs. With high rents, despite the high interest rates on mortgages, customers decide to buy counting on falling interest rates, which are said to be on the horizon by 2025.
Malgorzata Mellem, member of the Budlex Management Board
In the property market, we are seeing a decline in purchase interest, which is linked to the market’s desire for stabilisation. We continue to see some customer activity in the premium segment, but the high cost of mortgages in Poland is affecting purchase decisions. In the case of investment offers, we notice caution,. Customers are looking both for flats for their own needs and for attractive capital investment opportunities, but purchase decisions are being made with more caution.
In response to these trends, we have introduced an investment programme dedicated to our regular customers, which allows for flexible financing, special purchase conditions and priority in property selection. The programme has been very popular, especially among customers deciding to buy several flats.
In recent weeks we have noticed an increase in the number of enquiries and visits to our sales offices, especially in cities such as Gdańsk and Warsaw. A good example of this is the Kapitanat investment in Gdańsk, where the launch of the next stage of exclusive flats on the Motława river has met with a great response already at the pre-sales stage. We hope that these are swallows heralding a market upturn in the coming months.
At the same time, our planned new investments in Toruń, Bydgoszcz or Warsaw will be enriched with promotional programmes that will certainly increase customer interest. These activities, adapted to the current economic conditions, are aimed at attracting both individual buyers and investors.
Dawid Wrona, Chief Operating Officer at Archicom
Taking into account the largest Polish cities, in the last 3 months we have observed a clear increase in flat sales. Undoubtedly, part of these transactions is financed with a mortgage. Credit policy is correlated with the dynamics of sales in the real estate market, which is easy to see with the changes in interest rates.
We expected a rebound in sales at the end of this year, especially among credit customers. In my opinion, this is due to a kind of fatigue in anticipation of the launch of the new government programme, as well as a lack of information about the start date or specific assumptions. With the current level of inflation, the stable and slow, but nevertheless increasing prices of flats, as well as the relatively high supply giving the possibility to choose a flat according to one’s own preferences, it is becoming increasingly difficult to justify holding back purchase decisions. At the same time, supply is being rebuilt at a reasonable pace, which means that we should not forecast a significant drop in property prices in the near future, but rather their maintenance at a similar level.
Zuzanna Należyta, commercial director at Eco Classic
There is a slight recovery among customers, but rather in terms of decision-making. So far, we have had a similar level of interest as now, but customers have been waiting to make a decision. This is also confirmed by the BIK data, which shows that 21 per cent more home loan applications were made in October than the month before.
Joanna Chojecka, sales and marketing director for Warsaw and Wrocław at Robyg Group
In the last quarter we saw that customers postponed their purchase decisions in anticipation of new investments and the expansion of the offer available on the market. Undoubtedly, the whole quarter was also affected by the flooding in western Poland, which we clearly noted in Wrocław. This is a very difficult situation and reconstruction in flooded areas will take a longer time. Hence, the third quarter of this year was somewhat uncharacteristic. We are still seeing customer interest and are waiting for demand to return to previous levels.
However, we stand by our forecast of annual sales of 2,300 units and an increase in our rental portfolio of around 1,000 new units, so we are meeting our target schedule. The level of sales in individual quarters is more a result of seasonality and the size of the offer and does not affect our annual assumptions. In the current fourth quarter, we launched new investments because we managed to finalise the protracted administrative procedures and this will be visible in the annual results.
Photo: Centralna Vita, Develia
