Fitch revises 2025 outlooks for key corporate sectors amid global trade war

Fitch Ratings has downgraded its 2025 outlooks for global leveraged finance, North American corporates, and 12 industry sectors—mostly global or North America-focused—from ‘neutral’ to ‘deteriorating’ in its latest mid-year update. The revisions are primarily driven by the ongoing global trade war and expectations of weakening macroeconomic conditions in the second half of the year.

According to Fitch, persistent trade tensions, uncertainty around future U.S. policy direction, and the risk of retaliatory measures from other regions are expected to exert significant pressure on various corporate sectors. The challenges are particularly acute in industries with high international exposure, cross-border trade reliance, or complex supply chains.

Notable downgrades include sectors tied to consumer spending, such as global alcoholic beverages and U.S. retail, restaurants, and consumer products. Fitch also lowered its outlook for sectors tied to natural resources, including global oil and gas, as well as chemicals. In healthcare, the global medical devices and diagnostic products sector, along with pharmaceuticals and biotech, also saw outlooks move to ‘deteriorating.’

The outlook for global leveraged finance was revised downward due to increasing risk for lower-rated companies. However, Fitch noted that most corporate sector outlooks remain ‘neutral’ for now, as the impact of higher tariffs has been gradual and partially mitigated by corporate responses. Still, the agency warned that additional downgrades could follow in the second half of 2025 if tariffs rise further or policy instability continues to weigh on profitability and revenue growth.

Source: Fitch Ratings

Wide disparities in household consumption and GDP per Capita across EU in 2024

In 2024, material living standards across the European Union showed significant differences, as indicated by newly released data on Actual Individual Consumption (AIC) per capita, expressed in purchasing power standards (PPS). AIC per capita ranged from 72% to 141% of the EU average among the 27 member states.

Nine EU countries recorded AIC levels above the EU average. Luxembourg led the group at 41% above average, followed by the Netherlands at 20% and Germany at 18%. In contrast, eighteen countries fell below the EU average, with Hungary registering the lowest level at 28% below average, and both Bulgaria and Estonia at 26% below.

The data, part of the European statistical system’s regular assessment of purchasing power parities, also highlighted even greater variation in GDP per capita among member states. Ten countries recorded GDP per capita levels above the EU average, with Luxembourg again leading at 242%, followed by Ireland at 211% and the Netherlands at 136%. The lowest GDP per capita levels were observed in Bulgaria (66% of the EU average), Greece (70%), and Latvia (71%).

While GDP per capita reflects overall economic output, AIC per capita provides a better indication of the material welfare experienced by individuals, as it accounts for both private consumption and public services provided to households. The figures underscore continuing disparities in living standards and economic development across the EU.

Source: EUROSTAT

Catella APAM completes full-floor letting at Arlington Park to Ridge and Neuraxpharm

Catella APAM has secured a full-floor letting at Arlington Park in Reading, marking another leasing success for the business campus. The latest agreements further reinforce the appeal of the park to companies seeking scalable and well-connected office space.

Ridge and Partners LLP, a built environment consultancy, has signed a 10-year lease for the remaining 9,058 sq ft on the first floor of Building 1410. The firm cited both the location and the quality of the office environment as key factors in their decision. Ridge Partner Adrian Goulding noted that the surrounding green space, lake, on-site café, and gym played a significant role in creating an appealing workplace for staff.

Sharing the floor with Ridge is Neuraxpharm, a European pharmaceutical company specializing in treatments for central nervous system disorders. Neuraxpharm has committed to a five-year lease for 2,300 sq ft. The company will remain in its current space until December 2025 under a short-term extension before relocating to its new headquarters, which will be delivered with a landlord-provided Category B fit-out.

Commenting on the new agreements, Max Bingham, Asset Manager at Catella APAM, stated that the lettings reflect the park’s capacity to support tenants from initial occupancy through to larger-scale expansion.

Arlington Park continues to see consistent interest from both flexible and traditional office occupiers, bolstered by its connectivity and amenities.

Harmonized inflation in Slovakia reaches 4.3% in May 2025

Inflation in Slovakia, measured using the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) under the common European methodology, rose to 4.3% in May 2025 on a year-on-year basis. Month-on-month inflation stood at 0.5%. The annual HICP inflation figure exceeded the national inflation rate previously published on June 13.

Price increases were recorded across all 12 consumption divisions compared to May 2024. The smallest annual increase was observed in the transport division, where prices rose by just 0.1%, while the most significant rise occurred in the education sector, with prices up by 10.2%. On a monthly basis, nine of the twelve divisions saw price growth. The largest upward pressure came from the food and non-alcoholic beverages division, where prices increased by 1.3%. However, the overall monthly inflation rate was partly offset by a 1.2% decrease in transport prices.

The average annual HICP inflation rate for the period from June 2024 to May 2025, compared with the same period a year earlier, was 3.6%.

The Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic has also implemented changes in its data collection methodology. Since January 2024, the prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages have been collected from scanner data—transaction records from retail chains—replacing traditional field surveys. Starting January 2025, this approach will also be used for the alcoholic beverages and tobacco division. The use of scanner data is part of a broader effort to modernize price statistics and improve data quality.

Source: Statistical Office of the SR

Average employment and wages in Poland rose in 2024

According to preliminary data from Statistics Poland, the average paid employment in the national economy in 2024 reached 11 million full-time equivalents, reflecting a modest increase of 0.3% compared to 2023. The manufacturing sector remained the largest employer, accounting for 22.5% of total employment.

Notable employment growth was observed in the accommodation and catering sector, which increased by 3.1%, and in human health, social work, arts, entertainment, and recreation sectors, each recording a 2.1% rise. Conversely, employment declined in five sectors, with the sharpest drops in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (-3.2%) and administrative and support services (-2.6%).

The average gross monthly wage and salary in Poland increased by 13.6% year-on-year, reaching PLN 8,181.72 in 2024. This growth outpaced the 13.1% increase recorded in 2023. Wages varied significantly across sectors, ranging from PLN 5,516.44 in accommodation and catering to PLN 13,459.50 in information and communication—about 32.6% below and 64.5% above the national average, respectively.

All economic sectors experienced wage growth, with education seeing the highest increase at 24.2%. The lowest wage growth, at 2.3%, was recorded in the mining and quarrying and other service activities sectors.

In terms of minimum wages, the gross monthly minimum wage was PLN 4,242.00 in the first half of the year and rose to PLN 4,300.00 in the second half. These figures represented 53.4% and 51.8% of the national average gross wage (excluding annual bonuses), respectively. By December 2024, approximately 402,700 employees earned the minimum wage or less.

M1 Kraków welcomes new tenants and expands retail offering

M1 Kraków, a family shopping centre managed by EPP, is expanding its range of food, services, and sports retailers through several recent lease agreements covering over 6,000 sqm. Among the new tenants is Sports Direct, which has opened its first store in Kraków, along with Asia Mama, an Asian street food restaurant, and Maxi Zoo, a pet supply store. Cukiernia Sowa has also recently opened at the centre.

Existing tenants such as MediaMarkt, McDonald’s, HalfPrice, and 4F have extended their leases and undertaken refurbishments. 4F has introduced its updated BLACK store concept, which features minimalist design elements using steel, wood, and monochrome tones.

Asia Mama operates on a buffet model and offers dishes prepared on-site by Thai chefs, including traditional wok meals, sushi, pad thai, and pho. Cukiernia Sowa combines confectionery with café service, offering pastries, ice cream, pralines, coffee, and a family-friendly seating area with a children’s corner.

Maxi Zoo provides more than 8,000 products for pets, including food, accessories, and specialist supplies for small animals, birds, aquariums, and terrariums. The store also allows customers to shop with their pets.

Further changes are planned for M1 Kraków. This autumn, HalfPrice will move into a larger unit to increase its product range. In spring 2026, NEW YORKER is expected to open a new store at the centre, nearly tripling its existing retail space.

Oxygen Park in Warsaw attracts new tenants

Three companies have recently joined the tenant roster at the Oxygen Park office complex on Jutrzenki Street in Warsaw. Trane Poland Sp. z o.o., Hamelin Polska Sp. z o.o., and e-Xim IT S.A. have leased a combined 1,700 square metres of office space in the development owned by Golden Star Estate. All leases began in early May and are long-term agreements.

Trane Poland, which operates in the HVAC sector, has taken 727 square metres in the complex. The company specialises in heat management systems for industrial and commercial buildings and was advised in the lease transaction by Coldwell Banker Commercial Nuvalu.

Hamelin Polska, part of a global group supplying school and office products, has leased 573 square metres for its new headquarters. The company, known for brands such as Oxford and Elba, operates a manufacturing site in Włocławek. The Warsaw location was secured with the support of Coldwell Banker Commercial Nuvalu.

The third new tenant is e-Xim IT, a company active in digital transformation and a key Polish partner for ServiceNow. It has leased 395 square metres and was represented by Patron Brokers in the lease negotiation.

Oxygen Park consists of two six-storey office buildings offering a total of more than 18,000 square metres of leasable space. The development, completed in 2013 and designed by JEMS Architekci, features flexible floor layouts and BREEAM “Very Good” certification. Tenants also benefit from access to a landscaped courtyard, cafeteria, underground parking, bike storage, and shower facilities.

Located on Aleje Jerozolimskie, a major Warsaw thoroughfare, the complex is accessible by car and public transport, including the nearby WKD Raków station. It is situated approximately 7 kilometres from both Warsaw’s city centre and Okęcie Airport. Retail options in the area include Reduta and Blue City shopping centres as well as local supermarkets.

The tenant base at Oxygen Park includes companies from various sectors, such as Adara, Agfa, Certis Belchim, ECO3, and Toshiba Global Commerce Solutions.

Real estate financing in Germany shows signs of stabilisation amid challenging conditions

The German real estate financing market remains under pressure, but experts are beginning to note cautious signs of stabilisation. According to the latest BF.Quartalsbarometer, a sentiment analysis published by BF.direkt AG in collaboration with bulwiengesa AG, the mood among financiers has slightly improved in the second half of 2025. However, a sustained recovery is not yet in sight, as conditions remain shaped by ongoing caution, interest rate volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty.

At a recent online press conference hosted by RUECKERCONSULT, real estate and finance leaders including Francesco Fedele (CEO, BF.direkt AG), Torsten Hollstein (Managing Director, CR Investment Management), Peter Axmann (Head of Real Estate Clients, Hamburg Commercial Bank), and Alexander Eggert (Managing Director, HIH Invest Real Estate) provided insight into the state of the market. They agreed that while sentiment is improving slightly, forward deals remain rare and financing conditions are still tight, particularly for assets with uncertain income streams.

The residential real estate segment continues to be viewed as resilient, supported by demand that far outpaces new construction activity. In contrast, the commercial property sector is seeing a clear split. High-quality, ESG-compliant office assets in prime locations leased to strong tenants continue to attract financing on favourable terms. Lower-grade properties in less desirable areas, however, remain difficult to finance or trade. Many owners are opting to delay transactions, holding out for greater market stability, as investors’ pricing expectations remain low.

There is a growing reliance on active asset management and alternative financing strategies. For properties that struggle with follow-up financing, improving leasing performance and developing realistic repositioning or exit strategies are key. When traditional bank loans are not feasible, credit funds and whole loan structures are increasingly being considered. Financing restructurings are also being used to avoid forced sales and to reduce loss risk.

Peter Axmann from Hamburg Commercial Bank noted that while new financing activity is gradually increasing, it is rebounding from a low base. He observed a slight uptick in residential property prices, while interest in hotel and retail assets remains subdued, though shopping centres may now offer re-entry opportunities due to significant price corrections. Logistics rents remain stable, but lease-up periods are becoming longer.

Torsten Hollstein of CR Investment Management remarked that despite widespread negative headlines and increasing refinancing pressure, sentiment has improved. He attributed this to the return of some international capital, with Germany once again appearing near the top of many investors’ target lists, albeit with more cautious and selective strategies.

Francesco Fedele of BF.direkt AG stressed that deep real estate expertise is more important than ever. Properties facing refinancing difficulties can often be repositioned successfully—provided there is a sound concept. He pointed out that within the core segment, there is now a wider spread of financing terms, and noted that many newer investments carry more leverage than those made several years ago.

Alexander Eggert of HIH Invest Real Estate reported that his firm is not experiencing issues with loan extensions. HIH holds a loan portfolio of approximately €6 billion and regularly extends €400 to €600 million annually. In 2024, HIH reached a transaction volume of €1.3 billion, including significant financing activity. While the firm sees that interest rate adjustments are now largely reflected in valuations, it does not observe notable risk premiums in either financing or refinancing scenarios. Nevertheless, Eggert acknowledged that legacy issues from previous market cycles still require attention.

Overall, while the German real estate financing market continues to face headwinds, the gradual return of capital, growing investor selectivity, and the rise of alternative financing tools suggest a sector slowly finding its footing. The path to recovery may be uneven, but cautious optimism is beginning to take hold.

Photo: Peter Axmann, Leiter Immobilienkunden – Hamburg Commercial Bank, Torsten Hollstein, Geschäftsführer – CR Investment Management, Francesco Fedele, CEO – BF.direkt AG and Alexander Eggert, Geschäftsführer – HIH Invest Real Estate

Romania positioned as emerging data centre market with strategic advantages

Romania is emerging as a promising destination for data centre investments, supported by a mix of favourable economic, technological, and geographic conditions, according to a recent analysis by real estate consultancy Cushman & Wakefield Echinox. The country offers a compelling value proposition for developers and operators looking to expand capacity in Europe, particularly in secondary markets that offer fewer entry barriers and greater long-term growth potential.

One of Romania’s key advantages lies in its diversified energy mix. Over half of the country’s electricity comes from renewable sources, supported by a stable and reliable power grid. Additionally, the country’s investment in high-speed optical fibre infrastructure has enhanced internet quality and connectivity, both essential for data centre operations.

Workforce availability also strengthens Romania’s competitive position. The country boasts a skilled IT labour pool and competitive employment costs, alongside cybersecurity standards aligned with European regulations. These factors, combined with national digitalisation initiatives and EU-supported programmes, create a favourable environment for the expansion of data centre capacity.

Environmental conditions further enhance Romania’s appeal. The temperate climate allows for efficient cooling using natural technologies, reducing operational costs and environmental impact. While land typically accounts for a smaller share of total development costs, Romania’s availability of competitively priced plots in low-risk areas adds to its attractiveness for long-term investments.

Despite strong global growth in the data centre sector, Romania’s current installed capacity remains modest, at under 100 megawatts (MW). However, local market fundamentals indicate strong potential. According to Laura Bordianu, Data Analyst in the Research Department at Cushman & Wakefield Echinox, Romania presents a favourable entry point for international developers seeking to benefit from the conditions of an emerging market. She points to regions beyond Bucharest—such as Cluj-Napoca, Timișoara, and Iași—as having the infrastructure, talent, and digital connectivity needed to support future expansion.

At present, Romania’s data centre market is primarily served by domestic operators, with smaller-scale facilities. There are currently 59 data centres across the country, 27 of which are in Bucharest. Other notable clusters include Timișoara with nine centres, Cluj-Napoca with eight, and Brașov with four. A major development is underway in Mișchii, Dolj County, where Cluster Power is building the largest hyperscale data centre in Romania, planned to reach 200 MW of operational capacity.

Cloud services are a major global driver of data centre demand. In mature markets, platforms such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud account for significant shares of capacity—40% in the Americas and 25% in the EMEA region. However, Romania currently lacks the presence of such large-scale cloud operators, representing both a gap and a growth opportunity for future entrants.

Globally, the data centre industry continues to expand rapidly, driven by artificial intelligence (AI), cloud adoption, and digital transformation across sectors. Major tech companies including Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are accelerating infrastructure development worldwide to meet increasing demand.

Established data centre markets in Western Europe, North America, and Asia are facing growing challenges, such as high land prices, strict sustainability regulations, rising energy costs, and limited power availability. These constraints are prompting operators and investors to shift attention towards secondary markets where expansion is more feasible.

The EMEA region has seen a surge in data centre activity, reaching approximately 9.4 gigawatts (GW) of live operational capacity. An additional 2.9 GW is currently under construction, with 8.7 GW in the planning stages—indicating a total pipeline growth of about 16% year-on-year. The main hubs—Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin (FLAPD)—continue to lead the region, with London alone accounting for 1.14 GW of capacity. Milan is also emerging as a key player with 990 MW of live and pipeline capacity.

Market growth is being driven by a combination of colocation providers such as Equinix, Digital Realty, NTT Global Data Centers, and Colt Data Centre Services, and hyperscale operators including Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta. These firms are investing heavily in large-scale infrastructure to support the next generation of cloud and AI-driven services.

Romania’s combination of strategic location, renewable energy capacity, skilled labour, and underdeveloped market conditions positions it as a strong candidate for future data centre expansion in Central and Eastern Europe.

Photo: Laura Bordianu, Data Analyst – Research Department at Cushman & Wakefield Echinox

PORR completes accelerated private placement of treasury shares

PORR has successfully completed the sale of 1,703,674 of its own shares through an accelerated private placement to international institutional investors. The sale, representing approximately 4.3% of the company’s share capital, generated gross proceeds of €45.1 million at a price of €26.50 per share. Completion of the transaction is expected on 20 June 2025.

The proceeds will be used to support PORR’s strategic focus on expanding its infrastructure business across Europe, particularly in Germany, Poland, and the CEE region. With the additional capital, the company aims to position itself to benefit from the surge in demand anticipated from ongoing government infrastructure programmes in these markets.

The sale increases PORR’s free float (excluding management-held shares) from 42.9% to 47.3%. CEO Karl-Heinz Strauss noted that the broader international investor base and improved capital structure enhance the company’s growth prospects. He also highlighted that increased liquidity could strengthen PORR’s potential for inclusion in Austria’s leading stock index, the ATX.

“This step secures the capital needed for further infrastructure expansion in our core markets,” said Strauss. “It also supports the long-term attractiveness of our shares for institutional investors by increasing trading volume and visibility.”

Berenberg, Jefferies, and Raiffeisen Bank International acted as joint global coordinators and joint bookrunners for the placement. Lilja & Co. served as independent capital markets advisor to PORR.

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