EU–US trade deal reached, tut terms raise concerns over imbalance and transparency

A new trade agreement between the European Union and the United States was announced yesterday following talks between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. While the deal averted the threat of an immediate transatlantic trade war, early analysis from economists suggests that the terms place a heavy burden on the EU side and lack transparency in their formulation.

According to Ruben Staffa, foreign trade expert and research fellow at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), the agreement signals a partial thaw in what had been escalating trade tensions. “A trade war between the US and the EU has been averted. Given US President Trump’s previous threats, this is good news for now,” Staffa said in a statement following the announcement. However, he added, “the agreement is tough.”

Among the most significant provisions of the deal is a 15 percent tariff on European goods exported to the US — a sharp increase compared to the average tariff rates that applied during President Trump’s first term, which were closer to 1.5 percent. This tenfold rise in import duties could impact a broad range of sectors, including automotive parts, machinery, and industrial goods, placing European exporters at a disadvantage compared to US counterparts.

In exchange, the EU has committed to purchasing hundreds of billions of euros worth of fossil fuels and military equipment from the United States. While details on the procurement timetable and breakdown of purchases remain vague, the scale of the commitment has raised questions in Brussels about the implications for the EU’s climate goals and defence autonomy.

On a more positive note, the agreement provides relief in several strategic sectors. Tariffs on selected high-tech products — notably semiconductor components essential to the US chip manufacturing industry — have been waived, signaling mutual recognition of supply chain interdependence in advanced technologies. “It is encouraging that no tariffs will be imposed on certain selected groups of goods,” Staffa noted, “perhaps other products will be added to this list of exceptions in the near future.”

However, the overall lack of clarity surrounding the agreement has drawn criticism from trade policy experts and lawmakers. “The details of the agreement are not yet known,” Staffa said. “This also applies to many of the other agreements that the US has concluded in recent weeks and months. This approach can hardly be described as a rules-based trade policy.”

Analysts also warned of possible looming disruptions in the pharmaceutical sector. The US has reportedly initiated investigations into European pharmaceutical imports, which could pave the way for new product-specific tariffs. If enacted, these would disproportionately affect EU-based pharmaceutical producers and could reduce the value and effectiveness of the broader trade deal.

In the European Parliament, early reactions to the deal were mixed. Some MEPs welcomed the de-escalation of trade tensions, but others voiced concern over the concessions made and the opaque negotiation process. “While we are relieved that a trade war has been avoided, we must ask at what cost. This agreement cannot come at the expense of European strategic interests,” one Brussels official commented under condition of anonymity.

With the final text of the deal yet to be published, observers expect further political debate and potential legal scrutiny in the days ahead. What is clear, however, is that while the EU-US trade relationship has taken a step forward in terms of engagement, the road ahead will be shaped by deeper questions of reciprocity, sovereignty, and global economic alignment.

Source: DIW Berlin

Real estate investment activity set to rise in Poland and CEE amid lower interest rates

A shift in monetary policy across Europe is expected to support a recovery in real estate investment activity in the second half of 2025. The European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented a series of interest rate cuts, bringing the eurozone’s refinancing rate to 2.15 percent. Analysts anticipate another reduction by autumn, potentially lowering the rate to 1.75 percent (European Central Bank, June 2025). This easing of monetary policy, coupled with similar moves in Poland and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), is improving financing conditions and enhancing real estate’s competitiveness as an investment asset class.

In Poland, the National Bank of Poland reduced its reference rate from 5.75 percent to 5.00 percent over two meetings in May and July 2025. According to the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), further cuts are likely this year. Economists at Pekao SA and mBank project the rate could drop to 4.5 percent by year-end, and possibly to 3.5 percent by the close of 2026, supported by stable inflation and a projected GDP growth rate of 3.4 percent in 2025 (NBP, July 2025; Eurostat, Q2 2025).

Preliminary data from Q2 2025 indicate that lower borrowing costs have already led to increased investment volumes in both the eurozone and Poland. Poland saw a marked uptick in transactions compared to Q1 2025, although the average deal size has remained modest. The market has responded with more transactions in core segments such as logistics and warehousing, where capitalization rates have held steady at 6.25–6.50 percent, according to figures reported by JLL and Cushman & Wakefield Poland.

Investor focus remains selective. Core, long-term income-generating assets continue to attract the most interest, but there is growing activity around value-add opportunities and assets with redevelopment potential. Retail parks remain a key focus in the retail sector, with yields averaging 7–8 percent, particularly in regional cities and suburban zones (CBRE Poland, Mid-Year 2025 Outlook).

Despite this momentum, activity in office and traditional retail sectors remains cautious. Price expectations between buyers and sellers continue to diverge, limiting larger-scale office acquisitions. Institutional investors, especially in Western Europe, have remained largely inactive as they continue to assess portfolio revaluations. However, with falling interest rates lowering the relative returns on government bonds and term deposits, real estate may once again appeal to conservative investors seeking yield.

Capital sources are also evolving. Nearly 40 percent of real estate investment activity in Poland during H1 2025 came from CEE-based investors, while U.S. capital accounted for approximately 30 percent, and Western European sources added another 20 percent. Polish domestic investors represented over 14 percent of total volume, indicating growing domestic appetite and liquidity (Avison Young, Regional Office Market Report H1 2025).

As interest rates decline further, the gap between seller expectations and buyer willingness may narrow, facilitating more large-scale deals. Additionally, lower borrowing costs could support the launch of new development projects, although political and geopolitical uncertainties, including regulatory shifts and regional security concerns, may continue to weigh on investor confidence.

Nonetheless, market analysts expect a measurable rebound in transaction activity in Poland’s commercial real estate sector during the second half of 2025, driven by a more favorable interest rate environment and improving economic indicators across the CEE region.

Bankfoot APAM seeks approval for redevelopment of Hawleys Lane logistics site in Warrington

Bankfoot APAM has submitted a planning application to Warrington Borough Council for the redevelopment of a 14-acre brownfield site at Hawleys Lane. The proposal involves the demolition of 375,000 sq ft of existing logistics space and the construction of four new industrial and logistics units with a total area of 295,000 sq ft.

The site, currently occupied by Great Bear, is designated as an ‘Existing Employment Area’ under Warrington’s Local Plan. The proposed redevelopment is intended to maintain the area’s employment function while modernising its infrastructure to reflect current logistics and manufacturing requirements. The application comes as the existing occupier prepares to vacate the site.

The new units are designed to be energy-efficient and adaptable to the needs of logistics, distribution, and light manufacturing sectors. The development incorporates features aimed at reducing environmental impact, including climate-resilient design and low-carbon construction techniques. It also includes landscape improvements and biodiversity enhancements, particularly along the site’s boundary with the railway.

The location benefits from established transport links, with close proximity to Junction 9 of the M60, the M6 motorway, and Warrington town centre. Planned improvements to site access and the promotion of sustainable transport options aim to reduce vehicle-related traffic.

Bankfoot APAM is working with a project team that includes AEW Architects, Savills, Rihbell, HTS, CWC, Pegasus Group, and Urban Green. The leasing strategy is being led by Knight Frank and DTRE. If approved, the scheme would form part of Bankfoot APAM’s broader national portfolio of regeneration and repositioning projects focused on reactivating underused industrial and commercial properties.

VAT surge triggers legal and strategic shift for Romanian residential developers

With Romania’s residential real estate sector on edge ahead of the August 1, 2025 VAT increase—raising the reduced 9% rate to the new standard rate of 21%, raised from 19% —developers are facing a wave of legal, financial, and operational challenges. As buyers rush to sign preliminary agreements to secure lower tax rates, the market is being reshaped by heightened uncertainty, potential disputes, and the need for rapid adaptation. CIJ EUROPE gathered insights from leading legal experts to assess how developers are navigating this volatile environment.

Siranuș Hahamian, Partner and Head of Real Estate & Construction at Ijdelea & Associates, observes that fiscal unpredictability is undermining what had been a stabilizing market. As buyers hasten to sign preliminary contracts to benefit from the existing reduced VAT rate, developers are increasingly exposed to legal risks. Chief among these are disputes over whether signed agreements entitle buyers to the lower VAT rate, especially in cases where the advance payment requirements are not strictly followed or where the delivery of the property falls after the rate change. Contractual ambiguity, particularly regarding who bears fiscal risk, is a recurring issue. Delays in handovers could lead to breach claims or calls for compensation, and hurried negotiations might expose developers to accusations of misrepresentation or insufficient disclosure.

Irina Dimitriu, Partner at Reff & Associates | Deloitte Legal and Real Estate Industry Leader at Deloitte Romania, adds that some developers may have promised delivery timelines they cannot realistically meet, which could further expose them to buyer demands to absorb the VAT difference. Many buyers will argue that the agreed prices were VAT-inclusive at the previous rate. Dimitriu emphasizes the importance of revising contracts to clearly state whether prices are VAT-inclusive and to allocate the burden of tax changes in a transparent and legally defensible way. Without such clarity, she warns, developers could face buyers seeking to terminate agreements, demand refunds, or challenge enforcement of penalty clauses.

Roxana Catea, Of Counsel at Stratulat Albulescu Attorneys (SAA), points out that under the revised Fiscal Code, VAT is determined not by the contract date but by the delivery date. As a result, developers may face lawsuits from buyers who signed preliminary agreements before August but receive delivery afterward. She recommends that contracts explicitly define net and gross sale prices, indicate applicable VAT rates, and clearly assign responsibility for any VAT changes. Furthermore, she cautions that buyers may attempt to invoke the civil code’s hardship doctrine to modify or exit contracts, claiming the VAT increase was unforeseeable. To counter this, developers should insert clauses stating that such fiscal changes are anticipated and that hardship provisions do not apply.

Beyond contract law, consumer protection issues are also expected to arise. Catea notes that some buyers could allege deceptive marketing, especially if developers used aggressive or misleading promotional materials to accelerate sales before the tax hike. This could expose developers to administrative sanctions as well as reputational harm. She urges thorough legal vetting of all public communications.

From a financing perspective, the situation is equally fraught. The VAT increase could inflate total project costs, requiring developers to amend financing agreements and secure additional funding. Hahamian warns that financial forecasts and buyer commitment levels may become unreliable, increasing the risk of disputes with lenders. Dimitriu explains that if clients exit binding agreements, developers may breach their loan covenants and fail to draw down committed funds, pushing projects toward default. Lenders may demand reappraisals, more equity, or longer grace periods as a condition of continued support.

Manuela Iurascu, Partner at Stratulat Albulescu Attorneys (SAA), predicts a temporary slowdown in new residential developments as stakeholders wait to assess the full impact of the VAT change. She expects developers to reassess pricing, sales strategies, and feasibility before launching or continuing projects. For banks, higher VAT may justify the tightening of covenants, particularly if expected cash flows decline or advance payments are reduced. The higher rate also exposes developers to increased inventory risk and longer sales cycles, particularly in price-sensitive segments of the market.

On the compliance front, tax authorities are likely to closely inspect transactions near the transition date. Both Dimitriu and Iurascu highlight the importance of properly dated contracts, accurate invoicing, and thorough documentation to avoid accusations of tax avoidance or improper VAT application. Developers must implement internal systems that correctly match VAT rates with delivery dates and should be prepared for extensive audits.
In response to these challenges, developers are being forced to rethink their contracts and business models. Hahamian sees the need for clearer clauses governing VAT, including mechanisms for price adjustments during transitional periods. Advance payment structures may also be revised to reduce late-stage exposure to tax rate shifts. Dimitriu recommends removing boilerplate VAT language and instead including explicit terms on price inclusivity and fiscal risk allocation. She suggests treating VAT changes as special events within sale agreements, requiring tailored legal responses.

Iurascu foresees a broader strategic pivot. Some developers may shift toward higher-end or mixed-use residential products, where price sensitivity to VAT increases is lower. Others might explore build-to-rent models, especially in cities with strong rental demand like university hubs. Developers could also introduce early-bird pricing or promotional discounts to soften the blow of higher taxes and stimulate demand. Financing structures may be adjusted to secure larger upfront payments and reduce cash flow vulnerabilities.

Across the board, legal experts agree that the VAT increase represents more than just a tax policy change—it is a stress test for the entire residential real estate sector in Romania. Contracts must become more sophisticated, compliance more rigorous, and business models more agile. Failure to adapt could result in litigation, financial distress, or reputational damage.

As the deadline approaches, one thing is clear: for Romanian developers, legal precision and commercial flexibility are no longer optional—they are critical to survival.

Major lease signed at City Point Targówek in Warsaw logistics market

City Point Targówek, an urban logistics project in Warsaw, has secured a lease agreement for 10,000 sqm of warehouse space with a company active in food production and distribution. The deal is reported to be the largest logistics lease transaction in Warsaw in 2025 in terms of both size and level of technical customisation. The new facility is scheduled for delivery in the third quarter of 2026.

The lease pertains to the C1 building within the development, which has been planned to meet the specific operational requirements of the tenant. Construction of the building is expected to begin in summer 2025, following the completion of site clearance and demolition works.

City Point Targówek is situated on a former industrial site and is intended to provide a total of 100,000 sqm of logistics and light industrial space. The development is located within the city limits of Warsaw and benefits from proximity to public transport and major road infrastructure, making it suitable for last-mile delivery, light manufacturing, and specialised logistics operations.

According to Peakside Capital Advisors, which is overseeing the project, the lease reflects continuing demand in the Warsaw market for logistics facilities that can be tailored to the operational needs of specific sectors. The leasing process was facilitated by AXI Immo.

The project is being developed by a joint venture between Peakside Capital Advisors and Partners Group, with a focus on modernising existing industrial sites in metropolitan areas across Poland. The partners aim to integrate sustainability and tenant-oriented design into the redevelopment of urban logistics spaces.

WDP reports strong H1 2025 results, confirms #BLEND2027 strategy targets

Warehouses De Pauw (WDP), a major European logistics real estate developer and investor, reported robust financial and operational performance in the first half of 2025, reinforcing the effectiveness of its strategic growth plan, #BLEND2027.

WDP achieved a 10% year-on-year increase in EPRA Earnings, reaching €171.2 million, or €0.75 per share, in H1 2025. This growth was supported by continued rental income growth (+2.2%), over 300,000 m² of new leases signed, and a high operating margin exceeding 90% .

The company’s occupancy rate slightly dipped from 98.0% at the end of 2024 to 97.3% as of 30 June 2025, in line with expectations. Pre-letting activity remained strong, with 75% of ongoing development projects already leased — a significant improvement over 60% in Q4 2024 .

In terms of portfolio valuation, WDP reported a modest revaluation gain of €18.9 million in the first half of 2025, reflecting a stable EPRA Net Initial Yield of 5.4%. The net reversionary yield across the portfolio is 6.2%, suggesting potential rent growth upon lease renewal or asset re-leasing .

A key milestone in the reporting period was the full commitment of all investments under negotiation within the #BLEND2027 strategy. A total of €440 million in development projects and acquisitions were secured in H1 2025, yielding a net operating income (NOI) return of 6.8%. As a result, the execution pipeline now stands at €800 million .

CEO Joost Uwents emphasized that WDP is well-positioned to meet its 2027 EPRA EPS target of €1.70 per share. The company maintains a solid liquidity position, with €1.2 billion in unused credit lines and an expected €600 million in cumulative self-financing through retained earnings and optional dividends between 2025 and 2027 .

Capital structure metrics remained within target ranges, with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 7.7x and a loan-to-value ratio of 41.3% as of mid-2025. These figures are projected to improve in the second half due to strong internal cash generation .

WDP’s logistics portfolio, valued at over €8 billion, continues to be anchored in essential supply chain segments such as food, pharma, FMCG, and e-commerce. The company also strengthened its presence in France and Germany during H1 2025 by appointing new country managers and expanding local office operations .

The company reiterated its full-year guidance, expecting to achieve EPRA Earnings per share of €1.53 in 2025, representing a 7% year-on-year increase.

Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, WDP believes it has all building blocks in place to meet its long-term growth ambitions, driven by tenant demand, a fully secured investment pipeline, and disciplined capital management.

New orders decline in Polish industry, undermining economic outlook

Poland’s Leading Economic Indicator (WWK), a composite index that provides early signals on the direction of the economy, recorded a second consecutive monthly decline in July 2025, dropping by 0.3 points month-over-month, according to data published by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and the Economic Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences. The primary factor behind this decline was a notable reduction in the volume of new orders received by manufacturing companies, which has in turn led to slightly weaker financial performance across the sector.

Among the eight components of the WWK, two registered improvement, four remained unchanged, and two—new industrial orders and export orders—deteriorated. Export orders, in particular, saw the steepest decline. According to the GUS survey data, the share of companies reporting a decrease in export orders surpassed those reporting an increase by over 18 percentage points in July. This figure represents a worsening compared to March 2025, when the gap was just 10 percentage points. The temporary recovery seen in April had been confined to a few sectors—such as automotive, chemicals, metals, and textiles—but this rebound proved short-lived.

Domestic orders, on the other hand, have shown prolonged stagnation, with little movement for more than a year. Approximately 19 of the 22 surveyed industries reported a greater share of firms experiencing a decline in new orders than those reporting growth. The most affected sectors include producers of durable consumer goods such as furniture, textiles, and leather products. The data suggest that post-pandemic surges in household durable purchases, particularly in 2020 and 2021, have now been fully absorbed, limiting the scope for new domestic demand.

Additional data from GUS’s July 2025 business climate survey suggest that around 13 percent more companies are experiencing a reduction in orders than an increase, a margin that has remained stable compared to the same period last year. Stagnation in residential construction and weakened consumer interest in new credit further reinforce expectations of subdued domestic demand in the short term.

The export environment also presents growing concerns. Beyond the fall in orders, survey responses indicate a perceived loss of competitiveness for Polish producers on both domestic and foreign markets. In July, more firms reported difficulties competing with imported goods locally and noted declining competitiveness outside the EU. Contributing factors include stagnant labor productivity and persistently high business costs.

Despite these negative trends in orders and competitiveness, the financial impact on businesses has so far remained modest. Only a 2-percentage-point deterioration in financial performance was observed compared to June, and the overall business sentiment fell by just 1 percentage point. Analysts interpret this as a sign that many companies still have liquidity buffers or reserves from prior periods and currently view the downturn as temporary.

On a more optimistic note, the Warsaw Stock Exchange continues to show strength. The main WIG index has sustained an upward trend through mid-2025, signaling continued investor confidence despite underlying weaknesses in industrial demand.

While firms are cautiously optimistic that current conditions are transient, the lack of a broader recovery in domestic or export demand, alongside competitiveness challenges, poses a risk to Poland’s industrial momentum heading into the final months of 2025.

Source: BIEC and GUS

Regional office market in Poland shows mixed trends in H1 2025

Poland’s regional office markets displayed both resilience and stagnation in the first half of 2025, according to Avison Young’s latest market snapshot. Despite sluggish new development, leasing activity rebounded, particularly in Kraków, which led the market in both demand and transaction volume.

Market Overview

As of mid-2025, Poland’s modern regional office stock stood at approximately 6.75 million sqm. However, only one project was delivered in H1 2025 — the Dymka 188 development in Poznań, adding just 2,400 sqm to the market. With only 67,400 sqm of new space expected by the end of the year, the supply pipeline remains historically limited.

Development activity continues to be focused in Kraków and Poznań, where developer confidence remains relatively stronger compared to other cities.

Demand Recovery and Transaction Structure

The second quarter saw a 28% quarter-on-quarter increase in leasing activity across major regional cities, with total demand reaching 387,000 sqm. Kraków dominated with a 44% share, while Wrocław and Tricity collectively accounted for over one-third of total regional demand.

A notable feature of the demand structure was the continued dominance of lease renegotiations, which made up nearly 60% of all leasing activity. New lease agreements constituted 32%, while pre-lets and owner-occupied transactions made up a small portion. The seven largest deals of the period — each exceeding 10,000 sqm — were all renewals.

Sectoral Breakdown

In terms of tenant industry, IT products and services led with 24% of the demand, followed by business services (17%) and manufacturing (13%). Flexible workspace operators, logistics, and the public sector also contributed notably to take-up across regions.

Vacancy and Rental Trends

The vacancy rate across regional markets held steady at 17.5%, with a total of 1.18 million sqm of vacant office space available. Katowice (22.7%) and Łódź (21.6%) recorded the highest vacancy rates, while Szczecin (7.3%) and Lublin (10.4%) had the lowest.

Rental rates for prime office properties showed moderate variation. Kraków and Wrocław topped the list with monthly rents ranging from EUR 13.00–18.00/sqm, followed by Tricity (EUR 14.00–17.50/sqm). Lublin remained the most affordable, with rents from EUR 10.00 to 14.00/sqm/month.

Outlook

Avison Young expects regional office markets to remain in a state of subdued development through the remainder of 2025. Limited new supply could help reduce overall vacancy over time, though lease renegotiations will continue to dominate market dynamics due to few relocation options for tenants.

“With development activity remaining low and few new office projects being delivered to the market, occupiers’ choices are increasingly constrained. As a result, starting the relocation process much earlier may become a key strategic approach,” said Przemysław Urbański, Director at Avison Young.

On the investment side, regional cities recorded 13 office transactions totaling over €195 million in H1 2025, led by Stena Real Estate AB’s acquisition of High5ive I&II in Kraków — the second-largest office deal in the country for the period.

While macroeconomic uncertainties and limited development may cap growth, steady tenant demand in select sectors and cities suggests a gradual path to stability for Poland’s regional office markets.

Source: Avison Young

Emerging economies to drive global animal-source food growth

Rising incomes in middle-income countries are expected to lead to a significant increase in both consumption and production of animal-source foods over the coming decade, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034. The report, jointly released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), highlights the complex balance between improving nutrition and mitigating the environmental impacts of food production.

The analysis forecasts that global per capita calorie intake from livestock and fish products will increase by 6% by 2034. This growth will be driven primarily by lower-middle-income countries, where consumption is expected to rise by 24%, nearly four times the global average. However, the benefits will remain unevenly distributed. In low-income countries, average daily intake of animal-source foods is projected at just 143 kilocalories per person, well below the 300-kilocalorie threshold the FAO considers a baseline for a healthy diet.

The report underlines the need for greater investment in agricultural productivity to combat undernourishment and reduce the environmental footprint of food production. While the projected increase in nutrient-rich food consumption in developing nations is a positive sign for global nutrition, the report warns that productivity gains must be accelerated to ensure sustainable growth.

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann emphasized the importance of coordinated policy measures to maintain open global food markets while promoting innovation and sustainability in agriculture. FAO Director-General QU Dongyu echoed this sentiment, noting that current trends point to nutritional improvements for many, but that further progress is needed to support the most vulnerable populations and to lower the carbon intensity of food systems.

Global production of agricultural and fish commodities is expected to grow by 14% through 2034, with the expansion largely enabled by productivity improvements in middle-income countries. This growth will include a 17% increase in meat, dairy, and egg output and a 7% rise in global livestock inventories. Although these trends will result in a 6% increase in direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, the emissions per unit of output are projected to decline, indicating improved carbon efficiency.

Despite gains in efficiency, the report notes that declining real prices for agricultural commodities may pose difficulties for smallholder farmers, who often lack the resources to adopt new technologies. To address this, governments are encouraged to support innovation while ensuring that farmers have access to markets and tailored support.

Scenario analysis within the report suggests that a 15% improvement in global agricultural productivity, coupled with the widespread use of emissions-reducing technologies, could eradicate undernourishment and lower direct GHG emissions by 7% compared to current levels. Technologies identified include precision agriculture, improved livestock feed, water and nutrient management systems, and practices such as crop rotation and intercropping.

Trade will continue to play a critical role in the global food system, with 22% of all calories projected to cross international borders before being consumed. A rules-based multilateral trading framework will be essential to stabilizing prices and ensuring food availability across regions.

The report also outlines key developments in crop and fuel production. Global cereal output is projected to grow at 1.1% annually, mainly through yield improvements. By 2034, 40% of cereals will be consumed as food, 33% as animal feed, and the remainder will go toward biofuels and industrial uses. Biofuel demand is expected to grow by 0.9% annually, with Brazil, India, and Indonesia leading this trend.

Sub-Saharan Africa is identified as a region with strong potential for productivity growth, given its large cattle population and low per-animal output. Meanwhile, India and Southeast Asia are expected to account for 39% of global consumption growth by 2034. In contrast, China’s contribution to growth is projected to drop to 13%, down from 32% over the previous decade.

In high-income countries, changing consumer preferences, public health policies, and concerns over diet-related diseases are expected to reduce per capita consumption of fats and sweeteners.

Overall, the OECD-FAO report calls for sustained investment in agricultural innovation, stronger food systems, and international cooperation to address the dual challenges of improving global nutrition and reducing environmental impact.

Bratislava’s housing market heats up as buyers prioritize space and security

Bratislava’s residential property market recorded a notable upswing in the second quarter of 2025, with demand reaching levels not seen in years. A total of 645 apartments were sold during the quarter, representing a 20% increase compared to the previous quarter and nearly double the volume recorded in the same period in 2024, according to Bencont Investments. The surge in activity is attributed primarily to stronger demand for larger and more expensive units, particularly in projects still under construction.

While rising inflation and concerns over household budgets have affected consumer spending in many areas, homebuyers appear undeterred. Apartments are being sold before construction is completed, and the supply of new housing has grown to its highest point in 15 years. Projects are expanding in districts such as Bratislava II and Bratislava IV, with the latter overtaking the former in sales for the first time.

This shift in buying patterns is also reflected in the type of apartments sold. The average floor space of sold units increased to nearly 60 square meters, with two-room flats accounting for nearly half of all transactions. The average sales price climbed to €4,692 per square meter with VAT, up 1% from the previous quarter, while the average overall apartment price reached €299,000—an increase of nearly 10%.

Developers have responded to the strong demand by accelerating new construction, launching nine new projects in the quarter. The total number of new-build units on the market reached 3,393, with the most significant growth seen in Bratislava IV, where available units increased by over 40% year-on-year.

Despite the rise in supply, price growth remained moderate. The average list price of new builds was €5,251.54 per square meter, a 0.73% increase from the previous quarter. This follows a sharper rise earlier in the year due to a VAT increase. Analysts believe the current stability in pricing indicates that speculation is limited, with structural factors—such as the dominance of high-end units—playing a greater role in shaping average values.

Another notable development is the growing popularity of pre-construction sales. Buyers are increasingly willing to invest in units that are months or years away from completion, drawn by more flexible payment schedules and wider selection. According to Herrys, two-room units in particular remain the most sought after, while demand for small, one-room apartments has declined.

Projects such as Cherries and Bory have fueled growth in specific areas, accounting for over 60% of all transactions in Bratislava IV during the quarter. Larger, four-room apartments have also attracted buyers, especially in completed developments and on the city’s outskirts.

Financially, the rising popularity of larger units is increasing the capital requirements for buyers. The average apartment price, including VAT, now exceeds €370,000. Buyers using mortgage financing must provide at least €74,000 in personal funds to meet minimum down payment thresholds. In high-demand projects in central Bratislava, the price premium is even more pronounced, with luxury developments accounting for nearly 40% of total inventory.

However, these dynamics pose challenges. Buyers choosing unfinished units must wait for delivery, often while continuing to pay rent or maintain temporary housing. Completed apartments are more immediately available but typically come at a higher cost. Financing constraints also play a role, particularly for those seeking to upgrade from older properties with existing mortgage burdens. In such cases, limited credit headroom can hinder the ability to secure a new loan.

Analysts caution that while the market is currently strong, broader macroeconomic risks remain. Inflation, which continues to affect building material costs and real household incomes, could influence buyer behavior. Rising construction costs are feeding into project pricing, while external risks—such as trade barriers or weakening export demand—could weigh on industrial output and employment, ultimately affecting consumer confidence.

One structural concern is the narrowing gap between the prices of new and older housing. While new construction typically commands a premium for its efficiency, design, and longevity, that difference has shrunk to under 20% in some cases. Analysts argue that such compression distorts the natural balance of the market. The issue is further compounded by a 25% drop in apartment completions in early 2025 compared to the long-term average, further constraining available inventory.

Ultimately, while Bratislava’s housing market is currently experiencing robust growth, the convergence of rising prices, shifting preferences, and macroeconomic uncertainty presents a complex environment for buyers and developers alike. Industry experts suggest that a healthy long-term market will require a sustained distinction in value between old and new properties, as well as prudent risk assessment by households and lenders.

Source: Trend.sk

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