The global economy is entering one of its most turbulent periods in decades, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook (September 2025). Drawing on surveys of leading public and private-sector economists conducted between late July and mid-August, the report warns that weak growth, geoeconomic fragmentation, and technological disruption will define the coming year, with risks heavily skewed to the downside.

The IMF has revised its 2025 global GDP growth forecast slightly upward to 3%, compared with 2.8% in April, but this remains well below the long-term pre-pandemic average of 3.7% . A full 72% of chief economists surveyed expect global conditions to worsen in the year ahead.

Trade tensions are at the heart of the outlook. The United States has rolled out sweeping tariffs across a wide range of partners, pushing average tariff rates to levels not seen since the 1930s. The measures triggered supply-chain realignments, with UNCTAD reporting a $300 billion rise in trade volumes in H1 2025 as exporters rushed shipments ahead of further tariff changes. The US dollar, meanwhile, has depreciated by more than 10% since January—the steepest slide since 1973—granting emerging markets some monetary flexibility but also raising the cost of US imports.

Artificial intelligence is emerging as a second major disruptor. 68% of economists now expect AI to become commercially transformative within the next year, up from 45% just months earlier. OECD estimates suggest AI could boost G7 labour productivity growth by 0.2–1.3 percentage points annually over the next decade, but experts remain split on how the technology will reshape labour markets.

Regional dynamics are diverging sharply. The US outlook remains fragile despite a rebound to 3.3% GDP growth in Q2 2025, with tariffs, volatile inflation, and fiscal expansion weighing heavily. In Europe, growth slowed to just 0.2% in the EU and 0.1% in the euro area during the second quarter, though employment remains steady and inflation subdued at 2.1%, allowing the ECB to hold rates. China continues to post stronger numbers, with GDP up 5.2% year-on-year in Q2, but faces deflationary pressures as consumer prices slipped by 0.4% in August. Across East Asia and the Pacific, new US tariffs on Japan have already dragged exports down by 2.6% in July.

In emerging regions, prospects are mixed. Latin America and the Caribbean are projected by the World Bank to grow 2.3% in 2025, while Sub-Saharan Africa could expand 3.7%, rising above 4% by 2027, assuming stable conditions. The Middle East and North Africa currently show the strongest growth momentum, with forecasts of 2.7% in 2025 and over 4% by 2027, supported by energy diversification and investment partnerships. South Asia remains among the fastest-growing regions, with India projected at 6.4% GDP growth in 2025, though new US tariffs on exports pose headwinds.

Beneath these headline figures, the report emphasizes deeper structural changes. Trade fragmentation is likely to become long-lasting, locking in new supply-chain patterns. Climate shocks—from Iberian wildfires to deadly floods in Pakistan—have underscored the mounting economic toll, with OECD data showing weather disasters already shaving 0.3% off annual GDP on average between 2006 and 2018. Chief economists overwhelmingly expect climate and resource pressures to persist for decades.

At the institutional level, global economic governance is weakening. The United Nations and WTO face restructuring and diminished roles, while development aid is being cut back. Nearly 67% of economists expect this to widen the gap between advanced and developing economies, even as regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America hold significant untapped growth potential.

The Forum concludes that advanced economies will rely increasingly on technology and human capital, while developing regions depend more heavily on capital flows and natural resources. Yet both face inhibitors—from political instability and weak institutions to trade barriers and fiscal vulnerabilities.

The report frames today’s turbulence as the transition to a “new global economic order.” While this environment carries elevated risks, it also offers opportunities for economies willing to adapt through investment in skills, innovation, and international cooperation.

Source: World Economic Forum

Poland’s construction and manufacturing sectors are moving in different directions, according to the latest data from Statistics Poland. Costs for construction and assembly works continued to rise in July, while industrial production in August showed wide disparities between growth industries and those under pressure.

In the construction sector, prices increased across building works, civil engineering, and transport infrastructure. Road and bridge projects saw the sharpest cost escalation, underscoring the continued strain on public budgets and private developers. Although the pace of inflation in construction inputs has slowed compared with the spikes of 2022 and 2023, higher labor and material expenses remain a significant challenge for investors, particularly in large-scale residential and infrastructure projects.

Industry data from August highlight Poland’s shifting production base. Out of nearly 500 surveyed product categories, 208 reported higher output, while 257 fell. Strong performers included optical fibre cables, women’s clothing, lead-acid batteries, and public transport vehicles. These gains suggest resilience in areas linked to digital infrastructure, consumer demand, and electrification.

But weakness in core manufacturing continues to weigh heavily. Passenger car output dropped by more than 60 percent in the year to August, and production of road tractors for semi-trailers collapsed by over 80 percent. Traditional materials such as cotton fabrics and man-made textiles also recorded steep declines.

Sales figures followed a similar pattern. Products such as cider, chocolate goods, and waterproof footwear recorded significant year-on-year increases, while sales of aluminium doors, grape wine, and cotton fabrics fell.

For real estate and investment markets, the data carry a mixed message. Rising construction costs may delay projects or force tighter margins, while uneven industrial performance highlights both risks and new opportunities. On one hand, weaker automotive demand undercuts logistics expansion tied to vehicle supply chains. On the other, growth in fibre optic cables, batteries, and public transport vehicles could spur demand for modern industrial and storage facilities.

Economists warn that Poland’s economy remains highly sensitive to European demand and global supply chain disruptions, but the strength of niche industries provides a degree of balance. For developers and investors, the challenge will be navigating rising input costs while positioning portfolios to capture long-term growth from sectors undergoing structural expansion.

Source: GUS

A series of events over the past two days has underscored the variety of challenges facing Europe’s security order, ranging from military tensions to civil aviation disruptions and political interference.

Poland issued one of its strongest warnings yet to Moscow, saying that any Russian aircraft straying into allied skies could be downed. The statement came amid a backdrop of repeated airspace violations along NATO’s eastern edge, raising concerns over possible missteps at a time of heightened friction.

Elsewhere, Copenhagen Airport was forced to suspend flights for several hours after drones were spotted near the runways, leading to delays and diversions across northern Europe. Authorities are investigating who was responsible, but the incident highlights how inexpensive technology can cause outsized disruption to international transport.

On the nuclear front, Russia has said it will continue to observe the existing limits of the New START arms pact for another year, provided the United States does the same. The commitment preserves the status quo in the short term but leaves open major questions about inspections and what will follow once the treaty’s current framework expires.

Meanwhile, Moldova detained dozens of people accused of involvement in a plan to stir unrest ahead of elections. Officials allege that the network was linked to Russian interests and intended to undermine the country’s political stability, though Moscow rejects the claims.

Taken together, the developments reveal a landscape in which Europe faces pressure on multiple fronts at once: military probes along its borders, vulnerabilities in civilian infrastructure, the uncertain future of nuclear stability, and efforts to destabilise democratic processes. Analysts say each on its own would be concerning, but occurring in quick succession, they point to a period in which Europe’s resilience and coordination with partners will be repeatedly tested.

Source: comp.