Tuesday, 16 June 2026
To what extent might geopolitical tensions and the associated increases in energy, fuel, and transportation prices, as well as supply disruptions, impact the new housing market in Poland? Will they translate into higher investment costs and asking prices this year? Which factors, besides inflation, will determine housing prices in the near future?
Tomasz Kaleta, Managing Director of Sales and Marketing at Develia
We are observing persistent cost pressures resulting primarily from the unstable geopolitical situation, including the protracted conflict in the Middle East, which may impact commodity and energy prices, among other factors, and investment costs. As a result, a gradual reduction in the scope for discounts in the housing market can be expected in the coming quarters.
The limited availability of attractive land in major cities and further decisions regarding interest rates may also contribute to rising housing prices. Despite the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the housing market remains relatively stable and customers are active. Buyers are increasingly paying attention not only to the price of the property but also to the developer’s reliability, the security of the purchase, and the standard of the investment.
Grzegorz Smoliński, Member of the Management Board of Dom Development
The geopolitical situation, including ongoing conflicts and tensions in various regions of the world, is already impacting the real estate market. We are observing that some customers are accelerating their purchasing decisions out of fear of rising inflation, which could translate into higher housing prices. At the same time, cost pressure is evident from contractors and building material suppliers. We estimate that the recent increase in investment costs has averaged around PLN 250–300 per square meter.
As a result, some developers are adjusting prices and limiting the scope of their discounts. However, it is difficult to clearly determine the exact increase in apartment prices this year, as it depends on many variables, including inflation, material costs, the labor market situation, interest rates, and companies’ approaches to launching new projects. All these elements combine to shape the current price dynamics in the primary market.
Tomasz Stoga, President of the Management Board of Profit Development
Geopolitics influences the real estate market primarily indirectly. If fuel, energy, transport, or raw material prices rise, this will sooner or later impact construction costs.
However, I would not expect dramatic increases in apartment prices resulting solely from the current geopolitical situation. Land availability, investment financing costs, new regulations, and the pace of administrative decisions will have a much greater impact. In the long term, the limited supply of apartments in attractive locations remains the biggest challenge. This will exert the greatest pressure on prices.
Zbigniew Juroszek, CEO of Atal
Construction costs were stable last year, but recently we have seen an increase averaging around 3–4% year-on-year. If the armed conflict in the Middle East continues and inflationary pressures intensify, mainly due to fuel availability and prices, these cost parameters may rise. Otherwise, we do not currently see a significant threat to construction budgets. The protective measures currently in place are providing some mitigation.
Besides geopolitical tensions, other factors are also influencing the market, affecting the cost of housing production and ultimately housing prices. For example, the temporary situation in the land market caused by planning reform and the general shortage of large, high-quality plots for residential construction.
New investments will be launched by developers on land purchased at increasingly higher prices, so it is difficult to expect a decline in new apartment prices in the future. In addition, the unpredictability of official decisions regarding permitting procedures impacts the length and certainty of the investment cycle, which also translates into higher prices.
Witold Kikolski, Member of the Management Board of MS Waryński Development S.A.
Geopolitical instability and the related fluctuations in fuel, energy, and transportation prices have a direct impact on the housing sector, as they affect the entire investment implementation chain, from the production of building materials to logistics and construction. Supply disruptions and increased operating costs naturally increase cost pressure on developers, which in the long term may be reflected in apartment prices.
At the same time, other factors, independent of inflation or the geopolitical situation, also influence price levels, including the limited availability of well-prepared development land, lengthy administrative processes, rising utility connection costs and technical requirements, and changing regulations. It is worth emphasizing that upward pressure on apartment prices stems not only from construction costs but also from the broader investment environment, over which the industry has limited influence.
Zuzanna Potrzebna, Commercial Director at Eco Classic
The primary price-setting factors in our industry are production costs, primarily the cost of land and construction. Construction costs are also influenced by fuel prices. As long as fuel prices remain regulated, it is difficult to predict their impact on construction costs.
Land supply, especially the availability of “problem-free” plots, is increasingly limited and is certainly contributing to rising apartment prices. Additionally, when preparing new general plans, cities determine the amount of land available for residential construction based on Central Statistical Office (GUS) population data. This data is 25–30% lower than figures derived from mobile phone networks or water consumption. Consequently, the plans may provide a smaller-than-needed supply of land, which could lead to further price increases.
Mariusz Gajżewski, Head of Sales, Marketing and Communication at BPI Real Estate Poland
The geopolitical situation always affects the economy, and the real estate sector remains particularly sensitive to rising energy, fuel, and logistics costs. Potential disruptions in supply chains could translate into higher prices for building materials and delays in project completion.
Housing prices are currently influenced not only by inflation and construction costs but also by land availability, new technical requirements, rising investment financing costs, and lengthy administrative procedures. All of these factors are gradually increasing the costs of new projects. However, we do not expect dramatic increases in housing prices comparable to those seen in the post-pandemic period. In the largest cities, a moderate increase in prices per square meter is possible, particularly in high-end projects and central locations.
Joanna Chojecka, Sales and Marketing Director for Warsaw, Wrocław, and Łódź at Robyg Group
The geopolitical situation is having a real impact on the real estate sector. Rising fuel, energy, and transportation prices directly affect the costs of construction materials and project implementation. Furthermore, the market remains sensitive to supply chain disruptions and financing costs.
We assume that apartment prices may continue to rise, although the scale of the increases will depend on the macroeconomic situation, interest rates, and the supply of new developments. In the largest cities, price pressure is sustained by limited land availability and lengthy administrative procedures.
Besides inflation, rising labor costs, environmental requirements, new legal regulations, and increasingly demanding technological and energy standards for buildings are also significant drivers of price increases.
Andrzej Gutowski, Sales Director at Ronson Development
In our opinion, the geopolitical situation is already affecting the housing market and project implementation costs. We can clearly see this in the new prices of construction materials and construction services. Supply chain disruptions and rising oil and transportation prices are beginning to have a real impact on construction costs, which in turn affect housing prices.
As for housing prices, the next two to three months should remain relatively stable, but a clear, albeit gradual, upward trend is already visible. Developers are introducing price increases cautiously but systematically, adapting them to rising project implementation costs. It is difficult to precisely forecast the scale of the increases, but it can be assumed that housing prices could rise by an average of around 7–8% this year. Differences will, of course, be visible across individual local markets.
Damian Tomasik, CEO of Alter Investment
The real estate market is currently reacting not only to interest rates and inflation but also to the geopolitical situation. Rising fuel, energy, and transportation prices, as well as potential disruptions in supply chains, directly affect the costs of real estate development projects.
In practice, any significant geopolitical instability translates into higher construction costs, from the transportation of building materials and logistics to the prices of raw materials and energy used during construction. Additionally, the market remains highly sensitive to debt financing costs, which have a significant impact on the final price of apartments in large-scale projects.
However, I would not expect sudden price spikes similar to those observed immediately after the outbreak of previous geopolitical crises.
Source: dompress.pl
