Wednesday, 7 October 2026
Poland’s central bank has kept its reference interest rate at 3.75%, maintaining stable borrowing conditions as mortgage activity continues to recover and residential investors assess the implications of renewed inflationary pressure. The Monetary Policy Council left rates unchanged at its meeting on 6-7 October. The decision comes after annual inflation increased to 4.0% in September from 3.4% in August, with higher energy and fuel costs contributing to the acceleration. The future direction of monetary policy will therefore depend partly on whether the latest inflation increase proves temporary or becomes more persistent.
For the housing market, the decision comes during a substantial recovery in mortgage lending. Polish banks issued almost 157,000 housing loans worth more than PLN 73 billion during the first half of 2026. In the second quarter alone, lending reached around 83,600 mortgages with a combined value of approximately PLN 39.7 billion. Refinancing accounted for more than 26% of new lending, meaning the increase in mortgage agreements does not translate directly into the same number of residential purchases.
Grzegorz Sielewicz, Chief Economist at Colliers, sees the recovery in credit demand as the result of improved borrowing capacity following earlier interest-rate reductions and rising wages. However, he argues that the stronger financing market has not yet returned Polish housing to the conditions seen during the government-supported mortgage boom. “Buyers are selective, often use cash and are more willing to choose apartments that are completed or already at an advanced stage of construction,” Sielewicz said.
Housing prices are also developing differently between individual cities. According to Sielewicz, September movements in asking prices on the secondary market were generally below 1% in Poland’s largest urban markets. Katowice, Wrocław and Gdańsk recorded increases, while asking prices declined in Lublin, Białystok, Kraków and Poznań. Over a 12-month period, the differences are wider, reinforcing the increasingly local nature of residential pricing. Changes in the composition of new supply can also distort headline price movements. Sielewicz points to Warsaw, where the average asking price for newly built housing increased by around 2% in September as more expensive apartments entered the market. This lifted the overall average without necessarily indicating that developers had increased prices by the same amount on existing units.
Supply remains an important counterweight to stronger demand. AMRON-SARFiN reported that more than 70,000 apartments were available across Poland’s seven largest residential markets at the end of the second quarter. Developers started construction of 38,700 homes during the quarter, up 22% year-on-year, while permits covering 48,900 units were obtained. The relatively large amount of available housing has so far contributed to greater price stability and more negotiating room for purchasers. Sielewicz expects developers to continue using targeted incentives rather than widespread reductions in published prices. Discounts on individual apartments, finishing packages, parking incentives and adjusted payment schedules can be used to support sales while protecting headline pricing. At the same time, higher land and construction costs limit the scope for substantial reductions across entire projects.
For institutional residential investors, the unchanged policy rate provides a different signal. Michał Stys, Managing Director of Bartek Real Estate, argues that greater predictability in financing conditions is important for investors considering long-term exposure to Polish rental housing. “Today’s decision by the National Bank of Poland is welcome news for Poland’s residential sector. Holding interest rates provides further certainty for investors looking at Poland’s housing market and six months of stable rates is particularly welcome at a time when renewed inflationary pressures have caused central banks to raise rates across much of the world,” Stys said.
He also points to Poland’s housing requirements and the comparatively limited scale of institutional rental ownership as reasons for further investment in the sector. “Poland continues to face a significant housing shortage, alongside a growing urban professional middle class, increasing demand for high-quality rental accommodation and an institutional residential market that remains significantly underdeveloped. Attracting long-term capital into the sector is therefore important if Poland is to increase housing supply to meet this growing demand,” Stys said.
From the investment perspective, Stys believes stable rates can improve confidence when investors assess financing assumptions and longer-term residential strategies. “We therefore welcome this decision which will create greater stability in financing conditions, giving investors increasing confidence and strengthening Poland’s position as one of Europe’s most attractive, if currently overlooked, residential investment opportunities,” he said.
The two perspectives point to a residential market that is recovering without returning to the conditions of the previous demand boom. Mortgage lending has strengthened substantially, but high supply and more selective buyers are limiting broad price acceleration. For institutional investors, meanwhile, greater stability in financing conditions could improve the ability to underwrite residential acquisitions and development, although inflation and the future direction of interest rates remain important variables.
