Friday, 25 September 2026
The Czech economy is expected to strengthen in 2027 after a slower year in 2026, although forecasts from major institutions differ over the pace of the current slowdown. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects GDP growth of 2.2% this year followed by 2.4% next year, slightly reducing its previous 2027 projection.
The EBRD’s September outlook comes against a more difficult international environment characterised by higher energy costs, tighter financing and disruption to trade. Across the Central European and Baltic economies covered by the bank, growth is expected to reach 2.9% in 2026 before moderating to 2.5% in 2027 as the contribution from EU recovery funding begins to decline.
The Czech Ministry of Finance is more cautious about this year, forecasting GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 before an acceleration to 2.4% in 2027. It expects domestic demand to provide the main support to the economy, with household consumption continuing to expand and corporate investment recovering. Gross fixed capital formation is forecast to increase by 4.7% this year and another 2.7% in 2027.
The Czech National Bank has a somewhat stronger outlook. Its latest forecast expects GDP to expand by 2.2% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. The central bank therefore shares the view that economic activity should improve next year, although it anticipates a stronger recovery than either the EBRD or Ministry of Finance.
For the property market, the expected recovery in investment is particularly relevant. Stronger corporate capital expenditure can support demand for industrial, logistics and business premises, while continued household consumption provides a more favourable background for retail and residential markets. However, higher financing costs and uncertainty surrounding energy prices continue to affect investment decisions and the feasibility of new development.
External conditions remain an important constraint for the Czech economy because of its dependence on manufacturing and European trade. The Ministry of Finance expects exports to benefit from stronger industrial orders, but sees trade barriers and supply disruptions limiting growth. It also expects net exports to make a negative contribution to GDP in both 2026 and 2027.
Despite differences between individual forecasts, the broader picture points towards moderate Czech economic expansion rather than a sharp rebound. Current projections place 2027 GDP growth between 2.4% and 2.7%, with domestic consumption and investment expected to provide much of the momentum. For real estate, that would create a gradually improving demand environment, although financing costs, energy prices and conditions in export-oriented industries remain significant variables for development and investment activity.
