Monday, 21 September 2026
Istanbul’s effort to replace vulnerable buildings is confronting a challenge that engineering alone cannot solve: whether property owners can afford the cost of transformation. While public support has expanded and thousands of properties are moving through redevelopment programmes, the difference between available assistance and the actual cost of reconstruction can still leave households facing substantial financial commitments.
The scale of the task is enormous. Around 600,000 homes and workplaces in Istanbul are considered particularly vulnerable to a major earthquake. Under the government’s Yarısı Bizden programme, an eligible residential unit can receive TRY 875,000 as a grant, TRY 875,000 through financing and TRY 125,000 towards relocation, providing a headline support package of TRY 1.875 million. Despite this assistance, reconstruction costs can be considerably higher.
Reporting from Avcılar, one of Istanbul’s districts with substantial earthquake exposure, has documented households facing multimillion-lira contributions after government support is taken into account. Costs vary according to the building, land value, apartment size, development rights and agreement with the contractor. Owners can therefore possess valuable property while lacking the liquidity or borrowing capacity required to finance reconstruction, particularly when temporary accommodation and moving expenses are added.
The debate is consequently widening beyond demolition and complete rebuilding. A multidisciplinary workshop at Istanbul Technical University in June 2026 examined how structural strengthening could be used alongside redevelopment. Participants identified financing constraints and difficulties between owners and contractors among the obstacles facing transformation, while considering whether financial incentives could make retrofitting more practical for buildings where complete demolition is not required.
Affordability also extends beyond the immediate construction bill. Large-scale redevelopment can change land values, development patterns and the type of housing available within established neighbourhoods. Recent academic research examining Istanbul’s longer-term urban development has highlighted how demolition-led renewal, consolidation of plots and private residential development can alter neighbourhood structure, raising questions about whether existing residents can remain in transformed areas.
There is no single financial or engineering solution suitable for Istanbul’s enormous and varied building stock. Some properties require complete replacement, while others may potentially be strengthened. Sites with greater development value can offer more favourable redevelopment economics, whereas projects elsewhere may be harder to finance. Government grants and loans can narrow the funding gap, but they do not necessarily eliminate it for every household.
Istanbul’s transformation challenge is therefore becoming as much a question of real-estate economics as structural safety. Replacing or strengthening hundreds of thousands of vulnerable properties will require capital from the state, owners, lenders and developers while keeping the resulting housing financially accessible. The success of the transformation will ultimately depend not only on how quickly Istanbul can make its building stock more resilient, but also on whether the people living in vulnerable properties can afford to participate.
Source: CIJ.World Research & Analysis Team
