Wednesday, 12 August 2026
Inflationary pressure in Poland remains broadly under control despite a small rise in an indicator tracking future price developments, while weaker expectations among consumers and businesses suggest limited risk of a renewed sustained acceleration in inflation.
The Future Inflation Index (WPI), compiled by Poland’s Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC), increased by 0.4 points in August compared with July. The indicator is designed to anticipate changes in consumer prices several months ahead. BIEC said the latest movement remains too small to threaten longer-term price stability, although external developments could temporarily push inflation higher.
One of the more encouraging signals comes from household expectations. The proportion of Polish consumers expecting prices to rise faster than previously fell from more than 18% in March to around 7% in July. Inflation expectations among both consumers and manufacturing companies remained relatively low and close to their levels a month earlier.
Price-setting intentions among manufacturers have also weakened. The difference between the proportion of manufacturing companies planning price increases and those expecting to reduce prices fell from more than 19 percentage points in April to around eight percentage points in July.
The trend is particularly evident among larger businesses. Among the biggest companies surveyed, the proportion expecting to increase prices is now equal to the proportion planning reductions. BIEC considers this important because lower price pressure among large manufacturers reduces the likelihood that inflationary behaviour will spread more widely through supply chains and smaller businesses.
There are nevertheless differences between industries. Producers of durable consumer goods currently show the strongest tendency towards price increases, particularly companies manufacturing computers and other electronic equipment.
Commodity markets provide another relatively favourable signal. According to BIEC, the IMF commodity price index has declined for two consecutive months compared with March levels, primarily because of lower energy commodity prices, including oil. Oil prices had experienced greater volatility following the Middle East conflict and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, but BIEC reports that the scale of those fluctuations has subsequently diminished.
Food commodities present a different risk. Prices for wheat, sugar and some oils have increased, while drought conditions affecting parts of Europe and other regions could contribute to further increases over the coming months. This remains one of the potential sources of short-term inflation identified in the August assessment.
Poland is also benefiting from relative currency stability. The złoty has remained stable against both the euro and US dollar, limiting the risk that higher international prices will be transmitted into the domestic economy through more expensive imports.
Industrial conditions are providing an additional buffer. Capacity utilisation in Poland’s manufacturing sector has remained broadly unchanged over the past six months, helping stabilise costs associated with machinery and equipment and reducing the likelihood of additional cost-driven inflation originating from production constraints.
Taken together, the August figures point to an inflation environment that remains relatively contained rather than signalling the beginning of another broad price surge. The modest increase in the forward-looking index warrants attention, particularly given risks from food commodities and external geopolitical events, but falling consumer expectations, weaker corporate pricing intentions, lower energy costs and currency stability currently provide counterweights to those pressures.
For Poland’s business and investment markets, continued price stability would provide a more predictable environment for operating costs and investment decisions. However, BIEC’s latest assessment also shows that external commodity and geopolitical developments remain capable of interrupting the disinflationary trend, even if the underlying domestic indicators remain comparatively stable.
