As Poland faces an intensifying demographic crisis, experts suggest that the country may need to rethink its pro-family policies. Despite the introduction of child benefit programs like 500+ and its successor 800+, birth rates in Poland have continued to decline, prompting calls for new solutions—such as income tax exemptions for working mothers, a model already in place in Hungary.

According to the latest data from Statistics Poland (GUS), the country’s population could shrink to 30.9 million by 2060, a drop of nearly 7 million compared to 2022. At the same time, Poland’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.16—well below the 2.1 replacement level and one of the lowest in the European Union.

This trend is expected to accelerate the ageing of the population. Projections show that by 2050, 40% of Poles will be past working age. Currently, there are 35 retirees per 100 working-age citizens; by 2060, that figure may rise to 64, placing significant strain on the pension system and labour market.

While the 800+ program has improved financial conditions for lower-income families, its overall impact on fertility remains limited. According to experts from Personnel Service, the current benefits structure lacks incentives for middle- and high-income families to have more children. They argue that future policy should better integrate financial support with long-term family stability and labour market participation—particularly for women.

A potential alternative is the approach taken by Hungary. Starting in October 2024, Hungarian mothers with three or more children are fully exempt from income tax for life. By 2026, the program is expected to include mothers with two children, expanding to younger age groups over time. This policy is projected to boost large families’ incomes by nearly 19% annually. For example, a woman earning the equivalent of PLN 6,000 gross per month could retain an extra PLN 1,000 in net income.

Hungary’s broader pro-family strategy includes subsidised home loans, grants for family vehicles, and tax incentives for young parents. Since the implementation of these policies, Hungary’s fertility rate has risen from 1.23 in 2011 to 1.55 in 2023. In contrast, Poland’s fertility rate has not exceeded 1.4 in recent years and reached an all-time low in 2023.

“Demographics represent one of Poland’s most urgent long-term challenges,” says Krzysztof Inglot, labour market expert and founder of Personnel Service. “Without bold action, the consequences for the labour market and pension system could be irreversible. Introducing income tax exemptions for working mothers—similar to Hungary’s model—could offer a stronger and more targeted pro-family incentive.”

With fewer births and ongoing emigration among younger Poles, experts agree that policy changes are necessary. They argue that adopting elements of Hungary’s approach could help reverse negative trends and create a more supportive environment for families of all income levels.

Source: Personnel Service

The latest report from Statistics Poland (GUS) shows that prices for construction and assembly works in Poland saw a modest overall increase in January 2025 compared to the previous month. According to the study, the index of construction and assembly production prices rose by 0.1%, marking continued inflationary pressure in the construction sector.

Across all major categories of construction activity, prices recorded slight increases. Building construction costs went up by 0.1%, civil engineering projects (including infrastructure works) rose by 0.2%, and prices for specialised construction work also increased by 0.1%.

The report highlights specific growth in prices for a range of construction and assembly works. Notable increases were observed in the installation of heating and mechanical systems (+0.4%), mechanised earthworks (+0.3%), masonry structures (+0.2%), and sewage installations (+0.2%). Prices for water supply network installations also rose slightly (+0.1%).

In terms of buildings, construction costs for multi-family residential buildings (IV and V storeys), collective housing, retail pavilions, production halls, and medium-voltage cable lines also experienced small increases, typically between 0.1% and 0.2%.

Among infrastructure projects, expressways saw a price rise of 0.3%, while highway construction rose by 0.2%. Urban roads and access streets remained mostly stable, with some slight variation across categories.

Bridge construction also recorded modest price increases. Projects involving reinforced concrete viaducts and bridges built with monolithic techniques rose by up to 0.2%, while the cost of bridges using prefabricated elements increased by 0.1%.

The report, conducted by the Trade and Services Department of Statistics Poland, collects data from selected construction companies nationwide and serves both informational and practical purposes. The indices provided are used in project cost estimations, contract valuations, and investment planning by both public and private sector entities.

The January 2025 update confirms ongoing cost pressure in Poland’s construction industry, although at a moderate pace. It reflects both steady demand for construction services and adjustments linked to labour and materials pricing.

Statistics Poland has released its latest update on life expectancy for both sexes combined, presenting detailed figures by age for 2025. The data provides an essential reference for policymakers, researchers, and institutions working in areas such as health, pensions, and demographic analysis.

The figures, presented in months, reflect the average number of months a person of a specific age is expected to live. For example, at age 30, the life expectancy stands at approximately 591.5 months (just under 49.3 years), while at age 40, the expectation decreases to 477.6 months (nearly 39.8 years). This decline continues steadily with age, as would be expected in actuarial calculations.

The statistical release includes a month-by-month breakdown for each year of age, offering a granular look at how life expectancy changes even within a single year. For instance, a person aged 50 and 0 months has a life expectancy of 367.8 months, while someone who has turned 50 and is 11 months into their 51st year has an expectancy of 358.0 months.

Source: GUS

Over the past year, tenant behaviour in Poland’s office market has continued to evolve, shaped by a mix of economic, operational, and regulatory influences. Key factors such as ESG requirements, longer lease commitments, and increasing demand for flexibility are now central to leasing decisions.

Changing Priorities Among Tenants
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations are playing an increasingly prominent role in office selection. Companies are placing more emphasis on a building’s sustainability credentials and are beginning to expect ESG-related clauses to be included in lease agreements from the outset of negotiations.

At the same time, the rising costs of office fit-outs have led to a noticeable shift in lease durations. Seven-year contracts are becoming standard in new developments, while leases in existing buildings typically run for five years or more. Short-term agreements, such as three-year leases, are now far less common.

For tenants requiring greater flexibility, particularly smaller businesses, landlords are responding with shorter-term leasing options. These often involve standardised, ready-to-occupy spaces available for one or two years, aimed at organisations that do not require customised office fit-outs.

Coworking is also seeing continued interest. Both independent providers and property owners are expanding their offerings, making flexible office arrangements more accessible. This reflects the wider move toward adaptability in workplace strategy and leasing structures.

Pre-let Activity Likely to Increase
With a limited number of speculative office developments in the pipeline, pre-let agreements may become a key avenue for tenants seeking high-quality, well-located space. Over the next two to three years, more organisations are expected to secure space through pre-let deals to ensure their specific requirements can be met.

The limited availability of new supply may also impact existing lease terms. Tenants could face added pressure when negotiating renewals, especially if they aim to maintain favourable conditions amid reduced options.

Market Balance Shifting Toward Landlords
For a prolonged period, office tenants in Poland benefitted from strong negotiating power. However, the balance has started to shift. The current supply gap is putting upward pressure on rental rates, and landlords are now in a stronger position than in previous years. While this shift reflects a typical market cycle, it presents new considerations for tenants.

Larger organisations are increasingly initiating negotiations well ahead of lease expiry—sometimes two to three years in advance—to secure suitable space. In contrast, smaller firms may gain a competitive edge by simplifying their internal decision-making, enabling them to respond quickly when opportunities arise. Recent market trends suggest that delays in the leasing process can lead to missed opportunities, making speed and preparedness more important than before.

Complexity Around ESG Compliance
While tenants today are generally more knowledgeable about the leasing process, the growing emphasis on ESG has introduced new challenges. Companies now require more specialised guidance in assessing buildings against ESG standards—a demand that was almost non-existent just a few years ago.

As a result, lease negotiations often involve input from multiple specialists, including sustainability consultants, legal advisers, and facility planners. This complexity is contributing to longer decision-making timelines and requires a more coordinated approach among stakeholders.

In summary, Poland’s office leasing market is adapting to changing tenant expectations and evolving conditions in supply and demand. ESG criteria, longer lease terms, and flexible options are now key factors in the decision-making process, while landlords are gradually regaining negotiating strength. As the market continues to shift, early planning and informed decision-making will be essential for tenants looking to secure the right space on favourable terms.

By Robert Pastuszka, Director, Office Agency