The European Commission has presented a draft of the European Union’s 2028–2034 multiannual financial framework, proposing a record €2 trillion budget. If approved, it would become the largest financial package in the EU’s history. Poland is positioned as the top recipient, with an expected allocation of over €123 billion. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has welcomed the development, framing it as a recognition of Poland’s role within the EU and a success of his administration’s European policy.

The budget outlines major funding for key policy areas, including over €450 billion to support competitiveness across the EU economy, more than €300 billion for agriculture, and €131 billion for defense and security—five times higher than in previous cycles. Additional allocations are planned for digitalization, energy transition, migration management, Erasmus+, and climate change initiatives. Poland is expected to benefit significantly in areas such as regional development, infrastructure upgrades, and the shift to cleaner energy sources.

However, the budget also introduces a new financing structure for the EU itself. To support increased spending, the European Commission proposes expanding its own sources of revenue, including new levies that would bypass direct national parliamentary approval. These would include a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), a share of revenues from the emissions trading system (ETS), an e-waste fee, a common corporate tax on large multinationals (CORE), and higher excise duties on tobacco and nicotine products. Together, these measures are projected to generate over €40 billion annually.

While these new funding mechanisms are presented as tools for advancing climate policy, health, and tax fairness, they also signal a shift toward greater fiscal centralization. For Poland, which is expected to receive the highest volume of funding, the implications are complex. The country’s heavy reliance on coal and gas could make it particularly vulnerable to the expanded ETS and CBAM, which will raise costs in sectors like steel, cement, and fertilizer. The CORE tax, though aimed at large companies, is likely to be passed on to consumers. Environmental and excise fees could further affect households and small businesses.

These developments mark a growing role for the European Commission in shaping tax policy across member states. Critics argue this creates a parallel taxation structure within the EU, without direct citizen oversight or sufficient involvement of national legislatures. While shared investment is necessary for collective goals, the shift in fiscal authority has prompted concerns about democratic accountability and the ability of member states to maintain control over domestic economic policies.

Although Poland stands to gain significantly from the proposed budget, it may also shoulder a disproportionate share of the associated fiscal burden. The introduction of conditionality mechanisms, new levies, and centralised spending priorities could reduce national flexibility and increase dependency on EU-defined frameworks. The Polish government may face growing pressure to advocate for limits on EU fiscal expansion and to ensure that funding remains tied to the principle of subsidiarity and national accountability.

Source: WEI (Warsaw Enterprise Institute)

Poland’s commercial real estate market recorded stable performance in the first half of 2025, maintaining investment volumes on par with the same period last year. According to Avison Young’s latest market report, the total investment volume reached approximately €1.7 billion, spanning 63 transactions across all major asset classes. The industrial sector dominated the landscape, drawing the largest share of capital and registering the most high-profile transaction of the period.

The report highlights a shift in the profile of active investors. Institutional players remain cautious, constrained by falling asset valuations and global economic uncertainties. In contrast, private and domestic capital has become more prominent, with Polish investors contributing 14% of total volume and executing deals averaging €13 million. This trend is particularly notable in the residential and office segments.

The industrial and logistics sector continued its strong momentum, accounting for 40% of overall investment volume and setting a new benchmark for large-scale deals in the region. The most significant transaction was the €253 million sale and leaseback of two logistics facilities by window manufacturer Eko-Okna to U.S.-based REIT Realty Income Corporation—the largest such deal ever recorded in Central and Eastern Europe. Despite this standout transaction, the remaining 11 industrial deals all remained below the €80 million mark. Three portfolio deals were also closed during the period. Overall, the sector’s year-on-year performance nearly doubled, underscoring its status as a key engine of growth in Poland’s property market.

In the office market, investor activity remained selective but consistent, with a total investment volume of €411 million across 23 transactions. More than half of this activity occurred outside of Warsaw, reflecting growing interest in regional office markets. Polish investors were responsible for over one-third of the capital deployed in the office segment. While core capital remained relatively subdued, there was increased interest in value-add and core-plus opportunities, particularly in locations where pricing expectations between buyers and sellers have converged. Among the notable core deals were Wronia 31 and Plac Zamkowy in Warsaw, as well as High5ive I&II in Kraków.

Retail investments totalled €322 million across 20 deals in the first half of the year. Retail parks and convenience centres proved the most attractive to investors, representing 59% of the retail volume. The Czech-based investor My Park made its debut in the Polish market with the acquisition of the 10-asset A Centrum portfolio. Redevelopment activity also played a significant role, with the sale of Arkady Wrocławskie to Vastint and CH Glinki in Bydgoszcz to Redkom Development. Avison Young represented the sell-side in both transactions.

The residential sector, particularly private rented sector (PRS) investments, saw a total volume of €223 million. Of this, €150 million was focused on three PRS projects in Warsaw, with AFI Europe closing two deals and Syrena RE acquiring one asset from Xior Student Housing. In Gdańsk, NREP completed three co-living acquisitions, supported by advisory services from Avison Young. The PRS segment continues to consolidate, with the majority of existing stock held by Resi4Rent, Vantage Rent, and Fundusz Mieszkań na Wynajem. Resi4Rent also leads in terms of pipeline development.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, Avison Young notes that current market conditions remain favourable for buyers. With interest rate cuts on the horizon, yields are expected to compress, making this a potentially opportune time to invest. Mid-cap investors are expected to remain active across all asset classes, while core capital may return more assertively once broader economic stability is restored.

Third-party litigation funding (TPLF), though still uncommon in Poland, has begun to gain ground, with a number of litigation funds already active in the market. Despite this development, there is currently no dedicated regulation at the national level. However, recent moves by European institutions suggest that this may soon change.

TPLF involves an external entity financing legal proceedings in which it has no legal stake, in exchange for a share of the awarded compensation. This arrangement is typically used by specialised litigation funds and aims to support parties lacking the financial means to pursue costly legal action.

According to Olga Gerlich and Marcin Rudnik from the dispute resolution team at Wolf Theiss in Warsaw, litigation funding can enhance access to justice by levelling the playing field in legal disputes. However, it also introduces certain risks, including potential conflicts of interest. Funders may exert influence over litigation strategy or limit the funded party’s ability to settle or withdraw claims.

Concerns have also been raised about the proportion of proceeds funders are entitled to receive and the extent to which these arrangements should be disclosed in proceedings. In some instances, especially in group claims involving small consumer interests, the funder and legal representatives may receive most of the compensation, leaving little benefit for the actual plaintiffs.

These concerns are reflected in a recent report published by the European Commission on 21 March 2025. The report, spanning 700 pages, analyses TPLF regulation across EU Member States and several non-EU jurisdictions. It follows a 2022 European Parliament resolution urging the Commission to investigate responsible litigation funding practices and to consider regulatory measures.

As part of its findings, the Commission included a draft directive outlining potential regulatory approaches. These include licensing and supervision of funders, transparency requirements, limits on funders’ influence, and rules on contract terms. The study also mapped how existing national laws align with the proposed framework.

In most EU countries, including Poland, the only TPLF-related provisions are found in laws implementing the Directive on Representative Actions. In Poland’s case, this includes requirements for disclosing funding agreements and assessing their influence on proceedings—though these measures currently apply only to consumer class actions.

Interviews conducted during the Commission’s research revealed that 58% of stakeholders support some form of regulation, with 29% favouring an EU-wide framework. Only 13% opposed regulation altogether.

The European Commission’s findings indicate a fragmented regulatory environment, which may hinder competition, transparency, and predictability in litigation funding. It remains to be seen how the European legislature will proceed, but further regulatory efforts are expected.

The global TPLF market was valued at USD 17.5 billion in 2024, with Europe accounting for 25% to 30%. Projections suggest the market could grow to over USD 67 billion by 2037.