Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Poland’s near-term economic outlook weakened in September as manufacturing companies reported a further deterioration in incoming orders, contrasting with continued strong activity in the residential mortgage market. The Economic Indicator compiled by the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles fell by 0.7 points from August, marking its second consecutive monthly decline.
The September movement was driven primarily by weaker order books among manufacturers. The deterioration has now continued for four months, leaving conditions weaker than during the first half of 2026 and only marginally better than a year earlier. The gap between manufacturers reporting fewer orders and those seeing an increase widened to approximately 11.7 percentage points, from around seven points a month earlier.
Conditions vary considerably between industries. Companies producing metals, furniture and textiles are among those reporting weaker demand, while manufacturers of electronic equipment and transport equipment are seeing comparatively stronger order flows. In August, BIEC had already identified the absence of a sustained recovery in manufacturing orders as a potential constraint on corporate investment.
Other economic signals are more mixed. Managers’ assessments of their companies’ finances were broadly unchanged in September, although their view of the wider economy deteriorated slightly. Growth in Poland’s WIG equity index also continued, but at a slower pace than during the first half of the year, while the expansion of the M3 money supply moderated.
The residential financing market presents a markedly stronger picture. In July, the number of new housing loans granted by Polish banks and credit unions increased 33.1% year-on-year, while their combined value rose 45.3%. Across the first seven months of 2026, the value of new housing lending was 57.2% above the corresponding period of 2025.
Demand remained above last year’s level in August, although momentum eased from July. The value of mortgage applications was 9.3% higher year-on-year, while the number of applicants increased by 7%. Compared with July, however, applicant numbers fell 14.4%, and the average requested mortgage declined 2.4% to PLN 525,700. BIK notes that some of this activity represents refinancing of existing mortgages rather than purchases of homes.
The figures point to increasingly different conditions across parts of the Polish economy. Weak industrial orders could limit manufacturers’ willingness to expand production capacity and commit to new investment, while stronger household borrowing is supporting activity in the residential market. For the property sector, the contrast means demand for housing finance is currently providing a stronger growth signal than the outlook coming from Poland’s manufacturing base.
