Monday, 24 August 2026
Poland’s industrial and logistics property market strengthened during the first half of 2026 as companies increased their demand for warehouse space while developers maintained a cautious approach to new construction. The combination has started to reduce available space across several of the country’s principal logistics locations.
Modern industrial and logistics stock reached approximately 38 million sqm at the end of June, representing annual growth of around 5.5%. More than 1.23 million sqm of new space was completed during the first six months of the year, while approximately 1.30 million sqm remained under construction at the end of the period. These figures are independently consistent across AXI IMMO and CBRE’s mid-year data.
The development pipeline has contracted despite the continuing expansion of the overall market. AXI IMMO calculates that construction activity was 11% below the level recorded a year earlier and had fallen to its lowest point in more than nine years. Developers are increasingly reluctant to start projects without commitments from occupiers, leaving speculative space representing less than 40% of the current pipeline.
This represents a significant change from the expansionary phase of Poland’s logistics market, when large amounts of warehouse space were regularly started without tenants already secured. Higher development and financing costs, combined with greater economic uncertainty, have encouraged developers to place more emphasis on pre-leasing before committing capital to construction.
The more cautious supply environment coincides with a substantial improvement in occupier activity. Companies leased approximately 3.51 million sqm during H1 2026, around 21% more than during the corresponding period of 2025. This made the first six months of the year the second strongest first-half leasing period recorded in the Polish market, behind only 2022.
More importantly, the composition of leasing activity has changed. New agreements and expansions accounted for around 60% of transactions, with net demand increasing by approximately 58% year-on-year to more than 2.1 million sqm. This contrasts with 2025, when lease renewals represented more than half of annual take-up and were a major contributor to the headline leasing figures.
The change suggests that occupiers are moving beyond simply retaining existing warehouses and are again making decisions involving expansion, relocation and distribution-network restructuring. The recovery was already visible during the first quarter, when leasing reached approximately 1.58 million sqm and new agreements and expansions increased strongly compared with the previous year.
Demand is being supported by logistics operators, retailers, distribution companies and international e-commerce businesses. Poland’s combination of a large domestic consumer market, established logistics infrastructure and access to Western and Central European markets continues to support its position as one of the region’s principal distribution locations.
The improvement in leasing has begun to affect vacancy. The national vacancy rate declined from approximately 7.3% at the end of March to 6.3% at the end of June. Compared with the same period of 2025, the mid-year figure was lower by around 1.8 percentage points.
The decline is particularly relevant for companies requiring larger facilities. Availability of substantial warehouse units is becoming more limited in selected locations, meaning occupiers seeking large amounts of contiguous space may increasingly need to consider developments that have yet to be constructed rather than choosing from immediately available buildings.
Regional activity remains spread across Poland’s principal logistics markets rather than being concentrated around Warsaw. Silesia, Lower Silesia, Central Poland, the Warsaw region and Wielkopolska all recorded substantial leasing volumes during the first half, reflecting the increasingly decentralised structure of the country’s logistics network.
Poland is also moving somewhat differently from the wider European market. CBRE reports that leasing across Europe’s ten largest logistics markets increased by around 15% year-on-year during H1 2026, but overall European vacancy continued to edge higher. Poland and Spain were the two major markets where vacancy declined on an annual basis.
Restricted speculative construction is contributing to this divergence. Across Europe, speculative space under construction has fallen substantially from the levels reached during the logistics-market boom in 2022. Poland is following the same development discipline while experiencing a stronger rebound in new occupier demand.
Investment activity is also recovering. Transactions involving Polish industrial and logistics properties reached approximately EUR 782 million during the first half of 2026, according to AXI IMMO, an increase of 13% compared with the previous year. The sector represented roughly one quarter of commercial property investment in Poland during the period.
The return of larger portfolio transactions has contributed to investment volume, while capital remains particularly interested in modern logistics assets offering established tenants and longer income profiles. Properties developed for specific occupiers and facilities serving distribution networks also remain attractive to investors seeking comparatively defensive income.
The underlying market balance has therefore shifted noticeably since the end of 2025. At that point, Poland had approximately 36.6 million sqm of modern warehouse stock and vacancy of around 7.4%, while lease renewals were dominating occupier activity. Six months later, stock has expanded to around 38 million sqm, but stronger demand has nevertheless pushed vacancy lower.
The relationship between leasing and construction will now be one of the main indicators to watch during the remainder of 2026. If new demand remains strong while developers continue to limit speculative starts, available space could tighten further in the most active logistics corridors.
That could gradually strengthen landlords’ negotiating positions and create upward pressure on rents for larger or better-located facilities. It could also encourage developers to reconsider speculative projects once they become confident that new supply can be absorbed.
Poland’s warehouse market is therefore entering the second half of 2026 with stronger occupier fundamentals than a year ago. Demand is increasingly being generated by new commitments rather than renewals, vacancy is falling and construction remains controlled. For a market that already contains around 38 million sqm of modern space, the next phase of growth may be defined less by how much developers can build and more by how quickly suitable new space can be delivered to meet recovering demand.
