Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Poland’s warehouse market looks relatively balanced when viewed through the national vacancy rate, but a closer examination of the first-half 2026 data suggests that occupiers seeking larger blocks of modern space face a considerably tighter market than the headline numbers imply.
SQM Advisory argues that companies looking for units above 15,000 sqm are increasingly competing for the same properties, despite official vacancy remaining around 7%. The consultancy also says pressure is beginning to spread into medium-sized units as speculative construction remains subdued.
The broad direction of that argument is supported by other professional market data, although the national vacancy figure is already somewhat lower than the figure used by SQM. AXI IMMO puts vacancy at 6.3% at the end of June 2026, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, while CBRE and AXI IMMO both report approximately 38 million sqm of modern logistics stock and only around 1.30 million sqm under construction.
The development pipeline is particularly important. AXI IMMO says the amount of space under construction has fallen to its lowest level in more than nine years, while only 38.6% of current projects are being built speculatively. CBRE had already recorded a similar trend in Q1, when speculative development represented roughly 37% of the pipeline, its lowest level for several quarters.
This means the amount of genuinely available future space is significantly smaller than the headline construction figure suggests. Much of the pipeline has already been secured through pre-leases or is being developed for specific occupiers, limiting the choice available to companies that need to move quickly.
Demand is also strengthening. Leasing across Poland reached 3.51 million sqm in H1, up 21% year-on-year, while net demand covering new leases and expansions increased by 58%. New leases and expansions represented 60% of activity, indicating that occupiers are increasingly making fresh commitments rather than simply extending existing contracts.
Colliers identified the same trend earlier in the year. Its Q1 data showed gross take-up of around 1.6 million sqm, 40% above the previous year, while net demand increased by 75%. Vacancy was already moving lower despite substantial new completions.
The strongest independent support for SQM’s argument about large units comes from AXI IMMO. Its H1 report specifically states that availability of warehouses above 15,000 sqm is declining rapidly and warns that occupiers requiring larger blocks of space may have difficulty finding suitable options in selected locations.
That does not mean Poland is running out of warehouse space in an absolute sense. A national vacancy rate above 6% still represents a substantial amount of available floor area. The issue is the composition of that vacancy.
Available stock may be divided across smaller modules, older buildings, locations outside an occupier’s preferred logistics corridor or properties that do not meet particular technical requirements. A company needing 20,000 or 30,000 sqm in one location cannot necessarily use a national vacancy figure as a meaningful indicator of choice.
SQM says this is already changing leasing negotiations.
“This is the most significant trend we’re currently seeing in the market. In recent weeks, in several leasing processes handled by SQM Advisory, we’ve had to compete with two or three other interested companies before formal negotiations even began,” said Tomasz Arent, Partner at SQM Advisory.
That observation remains company-specific rather than a market statistic, but it is consistent with the broader evidence of stronger net demand and declining availability of larger blocks.
The trend is not unique to Poland. CBRE reports that vacancy across Europe’s ten principal logistics markets stood at approximately 5.6% in H1 2026, while speculative construction has dropped sharply and now represents only around 1.3% of existing stock. Poland and Spain were the only two major markets in the group to record a year-on-year decline in vacancy during the first half.
Germany provides a useful comparison. CBRE recorded a national big-box vacancy rate of 4.7% in Q1 2026, broadly confirming the level cited by SQM. By H1, take-up had increased 11% year-on-year to around 3 million sqm while big-box vacancy continued to fall and rents increased in stronger logistics locations.
Regional conditions in Germany are even tighter than the national number suggests. Frankfurt Rhine-Main recorded just 0.5% big-box vacancy at mid-year, while Munich effectively had no vacant big-box space. Hamburg also remained extremely supply-constrained.
SQM’s German rent comparison is also broadly credible. CBRE reported an average prime rent of EUR 9.21/sqm/month across Germany’s five largest markets in Q1, while Cushman & Wakefield recorded a top-five average of EUR 8.95/sqm/month. Individual markets ranged substantially higher, with Munich above EUR 11/sqm/month.
The Czech comparison needs more adjustment.
SQM cites Czech vacancy at around 5.8%, but the latest industrial data put the national rate closer to 5.5% at the end of Q2, equivalent to roughly 751,000 sqm of immediately available space.
Its Prague rental range of EUR 8–10/sqm/month is also too broad if presented as the standard prime warehouse rent. Industrial Research Forum data show conventional prime warehouse rents in Prague at around EUR 7.00–7.50/sqm/month, while the EUR 8.25–10 range applies specifically to more expensive city-logistics properties. Outside Prague, prime rents in selected locations generally range from approximately EUR 5.50 to EUR 6.60/sqm/month.
That distinction strengthens rather than weakens Poland’s cost argument. SQM reports typical modern Polish warehouse rents of around EUR 4–5/sqm/month, excluding incentives, which remains materially below prime levels in Germany and Prague.
Poland’s comparatively lower occupational costs help explain its continued attraction for distribution, logistics and manufacturing users, but that advantage can also contribute to stronger demand for the best properties.
The market is therefore becoming increasingly segmented by size, location and technical specification.
For occupiers requiring smaller modules, the headline vacancy rate may still indicate reasonable choice. For companies seeking large modern units in core logistics corridors, the relevant availability can be considerably tighter.
That distinction also explains why older warehouses may be attracting renewed attention. SQM says companies that previously prioritised newly built facilities are becoming more willing to consider older properties where the location, technical specification and immediate availability meet operational requirements.
There is not yet enough independent H1 data to quantify how large that shift towards older stock has become, so it should be treated as an occupier trend observed by SQM rather than a confirmed national market statistic. However, it would be a logical consequence of declining availability in the modern large-unit segment.
The evidence therefore supports the core of SQM’s argument, but with an important qualification: Poland does not have a general warehouse shortage. It has an increasingly selective availability problem.
National vacancy is falling but remains above 6%. What is becoming scarce is the combination many occupiers require: a large contiguous unit, modern specification, immediate availability and the right logistics location.
With new development increasingly dependent on pre-leasing and speculative construction remaining restrained, companies requiring substantial facilities may need to begin searches earlier or commit to buildings before completion.
For landlords, that could strengthen negotiating positions in the largest and most liquid logistics markets. For developers, continued absorption could eventually justify more speculative starts. For occupiers, however, the practical message from H1 2026 is already becoming clearer: the national vacancy rate says how much space exists, but increasingly it does not say whether the right space is actually available.
