Tuesday, 14 April 2026
The Future Inflation Index (WPI), which forecasts the direction of changes in consumer goods and services prices several months in advance, rose by 0.6 points in April 2026 compared to the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of reversing the earlier downward trend in inflation.
The main driver of this shift is the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting volatility in the region. Market participants have become highly sensitive to developments related to the conflict. Even if the situation stabilises, its effects are likely to persist for some time across many economies worldwide, including Poland.
The increase in commodity prices on global markets has had the most significant impact on the higher WPI reading. The IMF’s commodity price index has risen sharply in recent months, driven primarily by increases in oil and gas prices. Other commodities have also recorded gains, including fertilisers (up 26% year-on-year) and copper (by nearly 30%). The longer the conflict continues, the greater its impact is likely to be on prices across a broader range of commodities. This reflects not only rising raw material costs but also increasing expenses related to transport and processing.
In March, consumer inflation expectations rose noticeably. In particular, there was an increase in the number of people expecting prices to rise faster than previously observed. In February 2026, around 16% of respondents anticipated an acceleration in price growth, while in March this figure increased to 26%. A similar trend is likely to be reflected in the April survey.
Inflation expectations among manufacturing companies have also strengthened. The gap between firms planning price increases and those expecting to reduce prices has widened to more than 12 percentage points, compared with around 8 percentage points a month earlier. The strongest intentions to raise prices are seen in the oil refining and metal processing sectors. The clothing sector remains the only one expecting a slight decline in prices.
At the same time, increased geopolitical uncertainty has contributed to higher government bond yields. This may translate into rising financing costs across the market, including higher borrowing costs for both households and businesses.
