Thursday, 10 September 2026
Africa’s commercial real estate investment market has traditionally been dominated by a relatively small group of countries. South Africa offers the continent’s deepest institutional property market, Egypt combines enormous urban development with substantial domestic capital, and Morocco has established itself as an increasingly important manufacturing, logistics and investment gateway between Africa and Europe. These markets will remain important, but the next phase of African property investment could increasingly involve a wider group of countries where infrastructure, urbanisation and economic development are beginning to create institutional-quality assets.
The distinction between economic growth and property investability is critical. A country can attract billions of dollars of foreign investment without creating commercial real estate that international property investors can acquire. Large infrastructure projects, mining operations and energy developments can generate substantial capital inflows while producing relatively few stabilised offices, warehouses, apartments or shopping centres available for institutional ownership.
For property investors, the more relevant question is whether a market is developing assets that can be financed, leased, professionally managed and eventually sold. That requires more than economic growth. Investors need credible occupiers, functioning land markets, dependable infrastructure, professional developers, financing and sufficient transaction activity to provide confidence that capital can ultimately exit.
Several African markets are beginning to move closer to that threshold.
Côte d’Ivoire is emerging as one of the strongest candidates. Abidjan has developed into an increasingly important commercial centre for Francophone West Africa, supported by population growth, infrastructure investment, international companies and the country’s position within regional trade.
Its port provides an important foundation for industrial and logistics development. Improvements to transport infrastructure and the longer-term development of the Abidjan-Lagos economic corridor could strengthen the city’s role as a distribution gateway serving markets across coastal West Africa.
This creates opportunities beyond traditional office development. Modern warehouses, industrial parks, cold storage and distribution facilities could become increasingly important as regional trade expands. Consumer growth also supports retail, hospitality and residential development, giving Abidjan a more diversified property proposition than many smaller African capitals.
The investment challenge is creating sufficient institutional stock. International capital generally requires larger assets with professional management, reliable tenant income and clear ownership structures. As Abidjan’s development market matures, the number of properties capable of meeting those requirements could increase.
Tanzania offers another increasingly important proposition. Dar es Salaam combines a rapidly growing urban economy with one of East Africa’s most strategically important ports. Its significance extends beyond Tanzania because transport routes from the coast provide access to several landlocked economies in the region.
Investment in railways and the Central Corridor could gradually strengthen the city’s role as a regional logistics and industrial gateway. For commercial property investors, this means the opportunity may not be confined to warehouses surrounding the port. Industrial development could spread along transport corridors towards inland logistics nodes and manufacturing locations.
Dar es Salaam’s long-term advantage is therefore geographic. A distribution centre positioned within Tanzania can potentially serve domestic demand while also participating in trade with neighbouring markets. As transport infrastructure improves, this regional role could increase the amount of modern logistics and industrial property required.
Ghana remains one of West Africa’s more established commercial markets, although recent economic volatility has demonstrated the risks associated with currency movements, inflation and financing conditions. Accra nevertheless has a meaningful stock of modern offices, retail developments, hotels and residential property, while Tema provides a potentially stronger industrial and logistics growth story.
Tema’s combination of port infrastructure, manufacturing and established industrial areas creates a foundation for modern logistics development. As occupiers demand larger and more efficient warehouses, opportunities could emerge to replace fragmented or ageing industrial stock with professionally developed facilities.
Ghana’s property outlook will depend heavily on continued macroeconomic stability. International investors assessing rental income in local currency must consider exchange-rate risk alongside conventional property fundamentals. Improving economic conditions could therefore have an important influence on whether institutional capital becomes more comfortable increasing exposure.
Kenya occupies a different position because Nairobi is already one of Africa’s more developed commercial property markets. The next investment opportunity is not simply the emergence of Nairobi but the increasing sophistication of the assets being developed there.
The Kenyan capital already contains substantial office, retail and residential stock, alongside an expanding modern logistics market. Data centres have added another institutional property and infrastructure sector, while professionally managed rental housing could become increasingly relevant as developers search for alternatives to conventional build-to-sell residential projects.
The wider Nairobi-Naivasha corridor could also become increasingly important. Transport infrastructure, industrial land and geothermal power around Naivasha create the potential for manufacturing and logistics development outside the capital. If these elements continue to converge, Kenya’s next property cycle may become less concentrated exclusively within Nairobi.
This makes Kenya different from many emerging African markets. The question is not whether a recognisable commercial property industry will develop; it already exists. The question is whether the market can develop greater institutional depth, larger investment transactions and a broader range of income-producing asset classes.
Senegal provides another interesting West African proposition. Dakar has long served as an important Francophone business centre, but infrastructure investment and urban expansion are beginning to alter the geography of the metropolitan area.
New transport connections and development outside the traditional city centre can create additional locations for housing, logistics, industrial property and commercial development. Dakar’s position on Atlantic trade routes and its role as a regional corporate centre provide a foundation for further investment.
The logistics opportunity could become particularly important as companies seek modern distribution facilities capable of serving Dakar’s expanding population and regional markets. Hospitality also remains relevant because Senegal’s international profile and business connections support hotel demand alongside leisure tourism.
As with Abidjan, however, the transition from development opportunity to institutional property market requires sufficient transaction scale. Building attractive projects is only the first stage. Investors also need a functioning secondary market through which completed assets can eventually change ownership.
Zambia represents a different type of emerging property opportunity. Its strongest investment story may increasingly be connected with infrastructure, mining and industrial development rather than conventional office or retail expansion.
The Lobito Corridor has the potential to alter the logistics geography of the Copperbelt by improving connections between mineral-producing regions in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola’s Atlantic coast. If transport investment increases the amount of processing and manufacturing undertaken closer to mineral resources, demand for industrial land and logistics property could expand.
This could create opportunities for warehouses, processing facilities, industrial parks, maintenance operations and supporting accommodation. The property market would therefore grow alongside the industrial economy rather than primarily through conventional urban development.
For investors, this represents a different risk profile from buying a stabilised office in Johannesburg or Nairobi. Corridor-related development depends on infrastructure delivery, commodity industries and the successful attraction of manufacturers. The potential returns may be attractive, but development and occupier risks can also be substantially higher.
Rwanda offers almost the opposite proposition. Kigali is a relatively small market, limiting the scale of transactions available to major international investors, but the country’s organised approach to development and investment has created an interesting environment for commercial property.
Kigali Special Economic Zone demonstrates how serviced industrial land and infrastructure can help concentrate manufacturing and logistics activity. The city also has modern offices, hospitality and residential development, although the limited size of the domestic economy places a natural ceiling on market depth.
Rwanda’s investment case therefore rests less on scale and more on execution. If projects can be developed within a predictable environment and supported by reliable infrastructure, smaller markets can still attract specialised investors. Kigali could consequently provide a useful example of how investability does not always correlate directly with population or economic size.
Mauritius occupies a unique position in this emerging investment map. Its domestic commercial property market includes offices, hospitality, residential and mixed-use development, but its larger significance comes from its role as a financial and investment platform connecting international capital with opportunities elsewhere in Africa.
Its regulatory framework, financial services sector and international investment structures have made Mauritius an important base through which funds and companies organise African investments. This means the country should not necessarily be compared directly with Abidjan, Dar es Salaam or Nairobi as a large emerging property market.
Instead, Mauritius can be viewed as part of the financial infrastructure supporting African real estate investment. As institutional capital expands across the continent, platforms capable of structuring and managing cross-border investments will remain important alongside the physical markets where buildings are located.
This highlights why conventional rankings of Africa’s most attractive investment destinations can be misleading for commercial property investors. Strong governance and an attractive business environment matter, but they do not automatically produce sufficient real estate opportunities. Seychelles, for example, can offer an attractive investment environment and high-value hospitality opportunities while remaining far too small to develop the breadth of institutional property available in larger African economies.
The same caution applies to foreign direct investment figures. Large headline inflows can be generated by energy, mining, infrastructure or individual megaprojects without creating a corresponding increase in investible commercial real estate. Property capital needs to understand what sits underneath the national number.
The more useful measure is whether economic investment produces occupiers.
A new manufacturing plant can attract suppliers and logistics companies. Port investment can generate warehouse demand. A data centre cluster can require energy infrastructure and supporting development. New transport links can create industrial land opportunities. Growing corporate activity can support offices and hotels.
When these activities accumulate in the same location, a deeper property market begins to form.
That process is already visible at different stages across Africa. Abidjan is strengthening its role as a Francophone West African commercial and logistics centre. Dar es Salaam could benefit from regional transport investment and its position on the Central Corridor. Accra and Tema combine established commercial development with an emerging logistics opportunity. Nairobi is progressing towards a more sophisticated institutional market, while Dakar is benefiting from infrastructure-led metropolitan expansion.
Zambia’s opportunity is increasingly connected with mineral processing and transport corridors, while Kigali demonstrates how a smaller market can use organised development and infrastructure to attract investment. Mauritius, meanwhile, remains important as a platform through which international capital can access opportunities across the continent.
These markets will not develop at the same speed, nor will every promising development story become an institutional investment market.
Currency volatility remains one of the largest risks. Property may produce attractive local-currency rental returns while generating much weaker performance when income is converted into dollars or euros. High domestic interest rates can make development financing difficult, while shallow debt markets can restrict both acquisitions and construction.
Political and regulatory uncertainty also remains important in several countries. Property is a long-duration investment, meaning investors require confidence not simply in current conditions but in the rules that will govern ownership, taxation, leases and capital flows many years into the future.
Liquidity may ultimately be the greatest challenge. Institutional investors need to understand how they will eventually exit an investment. A high-quality warehouse can be profitable while occupied, but if there are only a handful of potential buyers in the country, the investor may struggle to realise its value.
The development of domestic institutional capital could help address this problem. Pension funds, insurance companies, REITs and other local investors can create a secondary market for stabilised assets, allowing developers and international investors to recycle capital into new projects.
This is one reason South Africa remains so far ahead of most African property markets. Its listed property sector and established institutional investor base create liquidity that is difficult to reproduce quickly elsewhere.
The next African investment hotspots will therefore not simply be the countries growing fastest. They will be the markets where economic expansion is converted into occupier demand, occupier demand into modern buildings and those buildings into assets that institutional investors can confidently own and trade.
Infrastructure will play a central role in that transition. Ports, railways, electricity, roads and digital networks determine where businesses can operate efficiently. Industrial parks and special economic zones can concentrate investment, while urban growth creates demand for offices, housing, retail and hospitality.
For property investors looking beyond Africa’s established markets, the opportunity is becoming increasingly diverse. It is also becoming more specialised. The strongest investment case in Abidjan may not be the same as in Nairobi, Dar es Salaam or Lusaka.
The winners will therefore be identified less by broad country rankings and more by understanding the individual cities, corridors and property sectors where institutional demand is beginning to emerge.
Africa’s next property investment map is already taking shape. It extends through the ports and industrial districts of Abidjan and Tema, the transport corridors surrounding Dar es Salaam and Nairobi, the expanding metropolitan geography of Dakar, the mineral routes of Zambia and the organised development environment of Kigali.
South Africa, Egypt and Morocco will remain major destinations for real estate capital. But they are unlikely to define the continent’s investment story alone.
The next phase will be about identifying which secondary markets can make the difficult transition from promising development destinations into functioning institutional property markets. Those that succeed could provide some of Africa’s most interesting commercial real estate opportunities during the remainder of the decade.
Source: © CIJ.World Africa Research & Analysis Team
