Tuesday, 8 September 2026
Croatia’s warehouse market is beginning to develop across a wider area surrounding Zagreb as extremely limited availability encourages developers and occupiers to consider locations beyond the capital’s administrative boundaries. The change does not mean that Zagreb is losing its position as Croatia’s principal distribution centre. Instead, the evidence emerging during 2026 suggests that the functional logistics market serving the capital could become considerably larger, incorporating municipalities connected to Zagreb by motorways, the airport and major national transport routes.
The pressure behind this expansion is clear. Availability of modern industrial and warehouse property fell to around one percent during the second quarter of 2026, compared with just over two percent in the previous quarter. No significant new modern space was completed during the period, leaving companies searching for larger premises with few immediately available choices.
Development activity is responding. Approximately 165,000 sqm of industrial and logistics property was under construction around the middle of the year, while a substantially larger volume was progressing through earlier stages of preparation. Not every proposed scheme will necessarily be delivered according to its original timetable, but the size of the pipeline demonstrates the level of developer interest in expanding Croatia’s modern warehouse stock.
The location of leasing activity provides another indication of how the market could evolve. Three of the four transactions recorded during the second quarter took place in Zagreb County rather than within Zagreb itself. Four transactions are far too few to establish a permanent decentralisation trend. Nevertheless, the pattern is important when considered alongside the location of new developments and the availability of larger sites around the capital.
Velika Gorica is among the strongest candidates to benefit. Its position close to Zagreb Airport and the A11 motorway allows occupiers to remain within the capital’s economic area while gaining access to development sites outside the denser urban environment. Large warehouse and light-industrial projects already being developed around the municipality demonstrate that the area can accommodate facilities of a scale required by major logistics companies, retailers and manufacturers. Additional commercial land around Velika Gorica could strengthen this position further. The combination of airport access, motorway infrastructure and proximity to Zagreb gives the municipality advantages that few other Croatian locations can reproduce simultaneously.
Yet the future warehouse market is unlikely to develop in only one direction. Jastrebarsko sits southwest of Zagreb along the transport route towards Karlovac and Rijeka. Its location makes it relevant to companies moving goods between the Adriatic coast and the capital, particularly if freight volumes using Croatia’s western transport infrastructure continue to expand.
Samobor has different advantages. Its western position provides convenient access towards Slovenia while retaining close connections with Zagreb. For companies distributing goods across Croatia and neighbouring European markets, this combination could support additional warehouse and industrial development.
North and northwest of the capital, Zaprešić and locations around the A2 motorway provide another potential development corridor. Major projects proposed in this part of the metropolitan area show that investors are prepared to consider very large industrial sites outside Zagreb when motorway access and proximity to the capital can be combined.
These competing locations raise a more important investment question than Croatia’s current vacancy rate alone suggests. The issue is not simply where another warehouse can be constructed. It is where enough modern buildings, occupiers and investment activity can accumulate to create a recognised logistics destination capable of attracting institutional capital.
Large property investors generally benefit from market depth. Several modern parks within the same area create leasing evidence, comparable transactions and opportunities to assemble portfolios. An isolated warehouse can be a successful property, but a concentration of institutional-quality facilities can create an investment market.
Land availability will play an important role in determining where that concentration develops. Large distribution facilities require substantial sites, good road access and adequate utility connections. Locations outside Zagreb can offer opportunities to develop larger projects and provide space for later expansion. But land price alone will not decide which municipalities succeed.
Planning certainty, infrastructure capacity and construction times will be equally important. A theoretically attractive site becomes less competitive if a developer faces lengthy delays before construction can begin. Access to workers could become another significant constraint. Modern logistics parks require warehouse employees, technicians, drivers and management staff. As projects become larger, developers and occupiers will have to consider the size of the surrounding workforce and how employees will travel to locations outside established urban centres.
The strongest logistics locations are therefore likely to be those capable of combining several advantages rather than simply offering inexpensive development land.
Croatia’s transport network adds another dimension to this emerging geography. Rijeka has long been strategically important as the country’s principal seaport, but investment in port and transport infrastructure could increase its relevance to the property market as well. Better movement of cargo between the Adriatic and inland destinations would strengthen the commercial relationship between Rijeka, Karlovac and Zagreb.
This does not yet constitute an established institutional warehouse corridor. However, the possibility deserves greater attention as Croatia becomes more integrated into freight routes serving Central and Southeast Europe. Greater cargo volumes passing through Rijeka could generate demand for storage, consolidation, distribution and industrial facilities at several points between the port and Zagreb. Some businesses may prefer to locate close to the port, while others may choose motorway sites farther inland that provide access to both Zagreb and neighbouring countries.
The development pipeline around the capital will determine how quickly these opportunities translate into investible property. Croatia currently has very little completed modern warehouse space sitting vacant. That creates favourable conditions for developers, but it also increases pressure to deliver projects at the moment occupiers require them.
A large planning pipeline does not automatically solve that problem. Projects must still obtain approvals, secure financing, complete infrastructure works and move through construction before companies can occupy them. Where developers can provide modern space quickly, the institutional rental market has an opportunity to expand. Where suitable buildings cannot be delivered in time, larger companies may instead choose facilities developed specifically for their own requirements.
The balance between these two forms of development will influence the eventual shape of Croatia’s logistics investment market. Zagreb is unlikely to be displaced from the centre of that market. Its population, consumption base, business activity and transport connections make it fundamental to national distribution.
What could change is the geographical definition of the Zagreb logistics region. Instead of being concentrated principally inside the capital, the market could gradually become a network of specialised locations around it. Velika Gorica could develop around airport and southern motorway connections. Jastrebarsko could benefit from the Rijeka route. Samobor could strengthen western distribution links, while Zaprešić and the northern corridor could capture activity oriented towards Slovenia and Austria.
Whether these locations develop simultaneously or one establishes a clear lead remains uncertain. For investors, that uncertainty is precisely what makes the next stage of Croatia’s logistics expansion important. The most valuable opportunity may not be identifying where warehouse demand exists today, because the exceptionally low level of available space already answers that question.
The bigger opportunity is identifying where infrastructure, land, labour and development capacity will come together strongly enough to create Croatia’s next major concentration of modern logistics property. The evidence from the second quarter of 2026 does not prove that Croatia’s warehouse market has permanently moved away from Zagreb. It does, however, indicate that the search for its next generation of logistics space is increasingly taking place beyond the city limits.
Source: CIJ.World Research & Analysis Team
