Thursday, 11 June 2026
Poland’s Future Inflation Indicator (WPI), which forecasts the direction of consumer price changes several months in advance, increased by 1.8 points in June 2026 compared with the previous month. The latest reading marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase, signalling that inflationary pressures continue to build across the economy.
According to the analysis, inflation is being driven by a combination of rising global commodity prices and higher yields on long-term Polish government bonds. Although government regulation of retail fuel prices has partially softened the impact of rising energy costs on consumers, inflationary pressures are increasingly spreading across other sectors of the economy.
A key factor supporting price growth remains strong wage dynamics. Rising household incomes continue to sustain consumer spending, preventing a significant slowdown in demand that could otherwise ease inflationary pressures.
Commodity markets have experienced heightened volatility in recent months. While the International Monetary Fund’s commodity price index in May remained slightly below its March 2026 peak, prices of energy commodities continue to fluctuate in response to developments in the conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. These factors have also contributed to higher prices for a range of industrial commodities, particularly rare metals used in artificial intelligence-related industries. Food commodity prices have increased at a more moderate pace of around 5% year-on-year.
Another significant contributor to the increase in the WPI was the rise in market yields on 10-year Polish government bonds. The higher borrowing costs reflect growing global risk aversion, concerns about more persistent inflation, and uncertainty regarding the future direction of monetary policy by the National Bank of Poland. The pace of public debt accumulation in Poland has also influenced government bond yields.
Inflation expectations among both consumers and manufacturing companies eased slightly compared with the peak recorded in April. The government’s intervention in fuel pricing appears to have helped moderate concerns. Nevertheless, inflation expectations remain elevated relative to levels seen before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.
Among manufacturers, the strongest intentions to raise prices were reported by companies operating in the petroleum, chemical, plastics and metal-processing industries.
Consumer sentiment has also stabilised after a sharp deterioration in April. The proportion of respondents expecting a rapid acceleration in inflation fell from 18% in March to around 9% in May. At the same time, nearly half of surveyed consumers expect prices to continue rising at roughly their current pace over the coming months.
The latest WPI data suggest that while inflation expectations have become less pessimistic, underlying price pressures remain strong, supported by resilient consumer demand, rising commodity costs and continued uncertainty in global markets.
Source: BIEC
