Friday, 27 February 2026
The Leading Economic Climate Indicator (WWK), which signals expected economic trends in the coming months, declined by 0.6 points in February 2026 compared with January. The drop was modest relative to the gains recorded in previous months and does not interrupt the broader upward trend. However, weak inflows of new orders in the industrial manufacturing sector continue to weigh on the outlook.
Out of the eight components that make up the indicator, only one, the WIG stock exchange index, recorded a noticeable improvement. Four components remained broadly unchanged, while three deteriorated compared with the previous month.
The most persistent weakness remains the limited growth in new orders for manufacturing companies. Order backlogs have been shrinking for nearly two years, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises. Larger companies have generally shown greater resilience, while producers of transport equipment are among the few segments reporting improvement. Analysts link the subdued order environment to slower economic activity in Germany and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
The limited inflow of new business is reflected in corporate finances. Since autumn 2025, the share of companies reporting a worsening financial position has exceeded those reporting improvement by around ten percentage points.
Business sentiment also failed to improve in February. Although January saw a temporary rise in optimism, this was not sustained as companies reassessed the economic environment.
Money supply data show that the real value of the M3 aggregate declined in January 2026, mainly due to lower deposits held by non-financial corporations. Economists note that a reduction in money supply at the start of the year is a recurring seasonal pattern.
On the capital markets, positive sentiment has continued to dominate trading on the Warsaw Stock Exchange for nearly three years and remained in place in February. However, structural challenges persist, including a limited number of new listings. In 2025, only three companies debuted on the exchange, while 15 were delisted. The market also continues to be characterised by the significant weight of large state-controlled enterprises.
Source: BIEC
