Thursday, 22 October 2026
Polish households became noticeably more pessimistic about the country’s economic prospects in October 2026, raising questions about the outlook for consumer spending and the potential consequences for the retail and property sectors. Figures published by Statistics Poland on 21 October show that confidence weakened across every category measured, with concerns about the wider economy increasing more sharply than worries about household finances.
The indicator measuring consumers’ assessment of their present circumstances declined from minus 10.8 in September to minus 14.0 in October, representing a monthly deterioration of 3.2 points. Compared with October 2025, the reading was 3.1 points lower. Expectations for the months ahead also weakened, with the forward-looking measure falling from minus 7.9 to minus 10.6, suggesting that households anticipate a more challenging economic environment as Poland approaches 2027.
The most significant change concerned perceptions of the national economy. Assessments of economic developments over the previous 12 months fell by 6.9 points to minus 29.6, while expectations for the coming year declined by 7.6 points to minus 25.3. These movements indicate that consumers are becoming increasingly concerned about the country’s overall direction, even though their assessments of their personal financial circumstances have changed comparatively little.
Household finances showed greater stability than the broader economic indicators. Expectations for personal finances over the next year declined by just 0.5 points to minus 5.2, while assessments of financial developments over the preceding year slipped marginally to minus 7.3. However, the measure reflecting consumers’ willingness to make substantial purchases weakened from minus 1.6 to minus 2.9, suggesting greater caution towards expenditure on higher-value goods and services.
For Poland’s commercial property market, the figures introduce an additional consideration for shopping centre operators, retail park developers and investors assessing future consumer demand. Although weaker confidence does not necessarily translate into an immediate reduction in retail sales, prolonged uncertainty could influence discretionary expenditure and the performance expectations of retailers. This may become particularly relevant when occupiers evaluate expansion plans, new store locations and leasing commitments for 2027.
The findings could also have implications for residential developers, particularly if concerns about economic conditions begin influencing decisions on major financial commitments. However, the survey does not directly examine housing purchases or mortgage demand, meaning that any effect on residential transactions remains uncertain. Employment conditions, financing costs, household income and housing affordability will continue to play important roles in determining purchasing activity.
The research also examined how developments in Ukraine are influencing Polish consumers. In October, 27.8% of respondents considered the situation a serious threat to Poland’s economy, compared with 27.2% in September, while another 41.6% assessed the economic risk as moderate. Overall, 54.9% indicated that developments in Ukraine had influenced their responses to the survey to a moderate or significant extent. These findings suggest that regional geopolitical uncertainty remains an important consideration in how households evaluate economic stability and their financial outlook.
The October results come at a time when Poland’s property industry is preparing investment, development and leasing strategies for the coming year. While the survey provides no direct evidence of declining property demand or retail turnover, the broad deterioration in sentiment highlights the importance of monitoring household expenditure and economic expectations. For developers, landlords and investors, the coming months will help establish whether October’s weaker confidence represents a temporary change in attitudes or the beginning of a more sustained period of consumer caution.
