Thursday, 22 October 2026
Moldova’s economy is showing signs of improvement during 2026, supported by higher investment, increasing household earnings and stronger industrial activity over the first eight months of the year. However, rising consumer prices and declining construction output are creating difficulties for businesses, households and property developers. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, economic output increased by 0.9% year on year during the second quarter, while inflation reached 8.6% in September. The contrasting figures suggest that the country’s recovery remains uneven as investors and businesses consider opportunities for 2027.
Economic activity increased by 0.9% during the second quarter compared with the same period in 2025, while growth across the first six months reached 0.6%. After seasonal adjustments, output expanded by 1.4% compared with the preceding quarter. Although the figures indicate that Moldova maintained a positive rate of economic growth, the relatively modest expansion suggests that improvements have not yet become widespread across the economy. Domestic spending, business investment and industrial performance will remain important influences on the country’s development during the remainder of the year.
Inflation has become a significant concern for households and businesses. Consumer prices increased by 8.6% in September compared with the corresponding month last year, accelerating from 7% in August. Prices also rose by 1.7% during September alone, while the cumulative increase since December 2025 reached 6.6%. The continued rise in living expenses is placing pressure on household budgets and increasing the cost of operating businesses, particularly those dependent on energy, transport and other essential services.
Energy expenditure contributed substantially to September’s inflation. Regulated natural gas tariffs increased by 40.8% compared with August, while electricity prices were 23.7% higher than a year earlier. Natural gas prices also recorded an annual increase of 21.3%, while petrol and diesel became more expensive. These developments have implications for manufacturers, logistics operators, retailers and commercial property owners, as higher utility and transport costs can influence profitability, rental affordability and decisions concerning future investment.
Household earnings continued to improve, although the benefits were partly offset by inflation. Average gross monthly wages reached MDL 16,895.7 during the second quarter, representing an increase of 9.2% compared with the same period last year. After allowing for changes in consumer prices, earnings increased by 2.3% in real terms. The number of employees covered by the wage survey also increased by 2.5%. The figures indicate that household income continued to rise, but the improvement in purchasing power was considerably smaller than the nominal wage increase suggests.
Differences in earnings between economic sectors remained substantial. Employees working in information technology and communications received average gross monthly wages of approximately MDL 41,010, while those in financial and insurance services earned around MDL 31,451. By comparison, average earnings in agriculture were approximately MDL 10,830, while accommodation and food services recorded around MDL 11,723. These differences influence household purchasing power and can contribute to variations in residential and commercial property demand between employment centres and regional markets.
Labour market conditions improved between the first and second quarters. Approximately 859,300 people were employed during the second quarter, an increase of 5.9% compared with the preceding three months. Unemployment declined from 10.4% to 7.3%, while the number of people without work fell to approximately 67,600. The employment rate reached 45% among people aged 15–89. However, changes in the statistical methodology used to measure unemployment mean that comparisons with earlier years require caution. The figures nevertheless indicate an improvement in labour market conditions during the first half of 2026.
The structure of employment also provides an indication of Moldova’s economic characteristics. Services accounted for approximately 61.2% of employed people, followed by agriculture at 14.4%, industry at 12.6% and construction at 11.8%. Around 19.5% of workers were estimated to be employed through informal arrangements, with construction recording particularly high levels. These characteristics are relevant to the availability of skilled labour, employment stability and the organisation of development projects, particularly where businesses require experienced workers and predictable construction schedules.
Industrial activity increased during the first eight months of the year, although the latest monthly figures showed a decline. Total production between January and August was 6.7% higher than during the corresponding period of 2025, supported by growth of 5.7% in manufacturing and 14.9% in energy production and supply. However, industrial output declined by 0.7% year on year in August, while manufacturing production fell by 2%. The difference between the cumulative and monthly figures indicates that earlier improvements were followed by weaker performance during the summer.
For Moldova’s industrial and logistics property markets, manufacturing activity remains an important indicator of potential occupier demand. Food processing companies, manufacturers, distributors and export-oriented businesses require suitable production premises, storage facilities and transport connections. Stronger industrial activity can support investment in these properties, although changes in production do not automatically translate into additional demand for warehouse or factory space. Energy costs, labour availability and access to international markets will remain important considerations for companies evaluating expansion.
Investment activity continued to increase during the first half of 2026. Approximately MDL 16.4 billion was invested in fixed assets between January and June, representing growth of 5.2% compared with the same period last year after accounting for price changes. Investment in physical assets increased by 7.4%, indicating that businesses and other investors continued allocating resources to equipment, infrastructure and long-term productive capacity. However, these figures cover a broad range of expenditure and should not be interpreted as investment in property development alone.
Construction activity presented a less encouraging picture. The volume of work completed during the second quarter declined by 6.3% compared with the corresponding period in 2025, while construction output across the first six months decreased by 8.2%. The figures indicate that higher overall investment has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in building activity. Project financing, development preparation, construction expenditure and the timing of major contracts may all influence performance, although the available statistics do not establish which factors were primarily responsible for the decline.
Moldova’s residential market faces a combination of improving earnings and rising household expenditure. Higher wages may strengthen the purchasing capacity of some prospective buyers, particularly those employed in technology, financial services and other higher-paying industries. However, inflation and increasing utility costs reduce the income available for savings and mortgage repayments. Developers must also consider construction expenditure, financing conditions and the ability of households to afford newly built properties. These issues are particularly relevant in Chișinău, where residential development and demand for urban accommodation are concentrated.
Retail activity showed stronger performance during the summer. Official figures indicated that retail sales volumes increased by 15.9% year on year in July, while wholesale trade expanded by 10.9%. The figures suggest that commercial activity continued to grow despite inflationary pressures, although they do not establish whether all retail categories or locations benefited equally. For shopping centres, supermarkets and neighbourhood retail properties, household purchasing power and consumer spending patterns will remain important influences on tenant performance and future expansion decisions.
Moldova’s office property market is influenced by the performance of professional services, technology businesses and other employers requiring modern commercial accommodation. The relatively high earnings recorded in information technology, communications and financial services demonstrate the importance of these industries within the economy. Such businesses can generate demand for offices, particularly in Chișinău, although national employment and wage statistics do not directly establish changes in leasing activity. Companies considering additional premises will continue to evaluate workforce requirements, building quality, operating expenses and accessibility.
The wider investment environment remains closely connected to infrastructure development, energy security and Moldova’s international economic relationships. Rising utility costs create additional challenges for industrial facilities, retail premises and residential buildings, while improvements in transport infrastructure and essential services can influence the attractiveness of development locations. Investors must also consider financing conditions, regulatory requirements and the ability of individual projects to generate sustainable income. The latest economic indicators suggest that opportunities exist, but conditions remain highly dependent on location and sector.
Looking towards 2027, Moldova’s economic prospects will depend on whether industrial activity strengthens, inflation moderates and construction returns to growth. Higher earnings and increasing investment provide some encouragement, but rising energy expenditure and declining building activity demonstrate that the recovery remains fragile. For residential developers, industrial occupiers, retail operators and commercial property investors, Moldova presents opportunities within a developing economy, although the current conditions reinforce the importance of careful financial planning, realistic demand expectations and close attention to operating costs.
