Thursday, 10 September 2026
Poland’s commercial property market may have to operate with elevated financing costs well into 2027 after the National Bank of Poland maintained interest rates in September and expectations for further monetary easing moved further into the future. The Monetary Policy Council left the NBP reference rate at 3.75% at its meeting on 9 September. The lombard rate remains at 4.25%, while the deposit rate is 3.25%.
The decision was widely expected, but its importance for property investors lies increasingly in how long borrowing conditions could remain restrictive rather than in the September decision itself. The central bank is confronting a more difficult inflation environment than earlier in the year, with higher fuel and energy costs adding to price pressures. The RPP is also monitoring geopolitical developments, global commodity prices, fiscal policy, domestic economic activity and wage growth when assessing its next move.
NBP President Adam Glapiński has indicated that another reduction during 2026 is now unrealistic. This does not represent a formal commitment by the Monetary Policy Council to keep rates unchanged until a particular date, but it significantly changes expectations about the timing of cheaper money. Rates could remain at current levels into 2027 if inflationary pressures persist.
For commercial property, that potentially changes the assumptions behind Poland’s investment recovery. Investors that had expected progressively cheaper borrowing through 2026 and early 2027 may now have to assess acquisitions on the basis that today’s financing environment could last considerably longer.
The consequences are particularly relevant for leveraged investors. When borrowing remains expensive, acquisitions require stronger property income, more equity or purchase prices that provide sufficient returns relative to financing costs. This can restrict the number of investors able to compete for assets and strengthen the position of buyers that are less dependent on debt.
Refinancing presents another challenge. Owners whose loans mature over the coming quarters may have to replace financing agreed under more favourable conditions with debt carrying a higher cost. Well-let properties with predictable income should generally be better positioned, while buildings with significant vacancy, approaching lease expiries or substantial refurbishment requirements could require additional equity or alternative financing structures.
Development decisions could also remain more difficult. Higher interest costs increase the returns developers need before committing capital to new schemes. Projects with weaker economics can consequently be delayed even when underlying occupier or residential demand remains relatively healthy.
The residential market faces a similar constraint. Mortgage affordability remains sensitive to interest rates, limiting how much households can borrow and influencing demand for new homes. Developers therefore have to balance buyers’ purchasing power against land, construction and infrastructure costs.
The outlook remains uncertain. The RPP continues to base future decisions on economic and inflation data rather than following a predetermined timetable. A meaningful improvement in inflation could eventually create conditions for lower rates, while persistent price pressures or another increase in energy costs could keep monetary policy restrictive for longer.
For Poland’s property industry, the immediate issue is therefore less about predicting the precise month of the next rate reduction and more about adapting to the possibility that cheaper financing will not arrive soon. The investment market can continue recovering while the reference rate remains at 3.75%, particularly where strong occupier demand and equity-backed investors support transactions, but financing will continue to influence which deals can proceed.
Polish real estate may consequently be entering a different stage of its recovery. Instead of relying on falling interest rates to restore the financing conditions of the previous cycle, investors and developers increasingly need acquisitions and projects to work with the cost of capital available today.
