Wednesday, 11 November 2026
Poland’s near-term inflation outlook showed signs of stabilisation in November 2026, although rising production costs and stronger expectations of price increases among businesses suggest that inflationary pressures remain present across the economy. The latest Future Inflation Index (WPI), compiled by the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC), remained unchanged from October following three consecutive months of increases.
The index, which is designed to indicate the likely direction of consumer prices several months in advance, suggests that the recent deterioration in inflation expectations has paused. However, BIEC cautions that the latest reading does not necessarily signal a sustained reduction in inflationary pressures, particularly given uncertainty surrounding international commodity markets and energy prices.
According to the report, Polish producer prices increased by 6.1% year-on-year in September 2026, indicating continued cost pressures within the manufacturing sector. Service prices were also rising, with annual growth of 5.3%. Medical services and transport and logistics recorded particularly strong increases of approximately 7%, highlighting the persistence of inflation across several areas of economic activity.
Business expectations provide further evidence of potential price increases in the coming months. In October’s Statistics Poland survey, the proportion of manufacturing companies planning to raise prices exceeded the proportion expecting reductions by more than 10 percentage points, compared with a difference of just one percentage point a year earlier.
Of the 22 manufacturing industries surveyed, only the leather industry reported a greater tendency towards price reductions than increases. Businesses operating in energy production, metal processing and chemicals showed some of the strongest intentions to raise prices. These industries are particularly exposed to energy and raw material costs, which can influence pricing throughout industrial supply chains.
BIEC also observed that larger manufacturing companies were more inclined to anticipate price increases than smaller businesses. This raises the possibility that cost pressures could gradually spread through supplier relationships and affect smaller manufacturers, although the timing and extent of any such development remain uncertain.
Industrial capacity utilisation increased during the third quarter, reaching slightly above 79%, compared with approximately 78% in the preceding quarter. Higher utilisation can increase maintenance and equipment operating costs, particularly when demand for specialist services and repairs rises. BIEC identifies this as another possible source of future producer price increases.
Consumer expectations moved in a somewhat different direction. The October survey showed a modest decline in the proportion of households anticipating faster price increases, with more respondents expecting inflation to remain at its current pace or ease slightly. Nevertheless, the report also points to rising yields on Polish ten-year government bonds, reflecting market concerns about inflation as well as public debt and budget deficits.
For Poland’s commercial property sector, the findings are relevant to construction expenditure, industrial operating costs and the financial assumptions used in development and investment projects. Persistent increases in energy, transport and manufacturing costs may affect building materials, logistics operations and property maintenance. Higher government bond yields may also influence financing conditions, although the report does not quantify their direct impact on property borrowing costs or investment yields.
The November reading therefore presents a mixed outlook. The forward-looking inflation indicator has stopped rising, but business pricing intentions, producer costs and industrial activity continue to point to risks of further price increases. Whether these pressures translate into higher consumer inflation will depend partly on commodity markets, domestic demand and the ability of businesses to pass additional costs on to customers.
