Thursday, 5 November 2026
Poland’s online retail sector is expected to maintain steady expansion over the next five years, creating new opportunities for logistics operators and property developers while changing how retailers organise their distribution networks. Research by PMR Market Experts by Hume’s indicates that internet sales could increase by approximately 8% annually through 2031, although the consequences for warehouse demand are likely to be more complex than the headline growth figure suggests.
The forecast comes as Poland’s logistics property market continues to expand, supported by domestic consumption, international trade and investment in distribution infrastructure. However, the relationship between rising online sales and demand for industrial space is changing as retailers seek greater efficiency, faster deliveries and improved control over operating costs.
According to PMR, Poland’s online retail market is entering a more mature phase following several years of rapid expansion by international shopping platforms. Foreign online retailers attracted significant numbers of Polish consumers through competitive pricing and extensive product ranges, but changes in purchasing habits and trading conditions could increasingly favour established domestic businesses.
International online sales recorded particularly strong growth between 2022 and 2025, with average annual increases approaching 20%. However, this pace is expected to moderate as consumers become more selective and retailers adapt to changing costs and competitive pressures.
For the property sector, the geographical location of goods and the organisation of delivery networks may become increasingly important. Retailers seeking to reduce delivery times and improve service reliability could place greater emphasis on distribution facilities located within Poland, particularly those offering access to major population centres and established transport corridors.
The country already has one of Central Europe’s largest modern warehouse markets. According to CBRE, Poland’s industrial and logistics property stock reached approximately 38 million square metres at the end of June 2026, representing annual growth of 5.5%. New development activity continued during the first half of the year, with more than 1.2 million square metres completed and approximately 1.3 million square metres under construction at the end of the period.
Leasing activity has remained substantial. Savills reported approximately 3.51 million square metres of gross warehouse demand during the first six months of 2026, while new leases and expansions accounted for around 2.1 million square metres. E-commerce businesses represented an estimated 30% of this net demand, demonstrating the sector’s continuing importance to the logistics property market.
At the same time, the national warehouse vacancy rate stood at approximately 6.6% at the end of June, according to BNP Paribas Real Estate. This indicates that Poland retains a substantial amount of available modern space, even as occupiers continue to seek facilities that meet increasingly demanding operational requirements.
The next stage of online retail development may therefore generate different patterns of property demand from those experienced during the sector’s earlier expansion. Rather than continually increasing the number of distribution centres, some retailers are concentrating operations in larger facilities capable of handling greater volumes through automation and improved stock management.
Modern warehouses are increasingly expected to accommodate sophisticated sorting equipment, automated storage systems and more intensive use of available floorspace. Reliable electricity supplies, building efficiency and access to skilled labour are also becoming important considerations when companies assess new locations.
These developments could influence investment decisions across Poland’s established logistics regions, including Warsaw, Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław and Upper Silesia. Each offers different advantages in terms of consumer access, transport connections, labour availability and the ability to serve wider European markets.
Facilities located close to major cities may benefit from demand for shorter delivery times, particularly among retailers handling frequent orders and consumer returns. Larger distribution centres serving national and international networks are likely to remain concentrated around major motorway connections and established industrial locations.
Nevertheless, stronger online retail sales should not automatically be interpreted as an equivalent increase in warehouse requirements. Growth in transaction values can result from higher prices or changes in consumer spending rather than additional goods moving through distribution systems. Similarly, improvements in warehouse technology can allow operators to process more orders without occupying significantly more space.
This distinction is particularly relevant for developers considering speculative construction. Future demand will depend not only on the expansion of online shopping but also on how retailers balance the cost of holding inventory, transportation expenses, delivery expectations and investment in technology.
The composition of online spending is also changing. PMR expects categories including household products, pet supplies and jewellery to record particularly strong growth during the forecast period. These activities have different storage and distribution requirements, potentially creating opportunities for specialised logistics facilities rather than simply increasing demand for conventional warehouse buildings.
Consumer participation is expected to broaden as well. PMR forecasts that nearly 87% of Polish internet users aged between 16 and 74 will make online purchases by 2031, with older consumers contributing to further market expansion. This suggests that online retail is becoming increasingly embedded in everyday household spending rather than remaining concentrated among younger customers.
For traditional retail property owners, these developments present both challenges and opportunities. Shopping centres and retail parks are adapting to consumers who increasingly combine physical shopping with digital purchasing. Stores can serve as collection and return points, while established retail networks may offer online operators an additional means of reaching customers without relying exclusively on home deliveries.
The growing integration of physical and online retail could also encourage investment in smaller distribution facilities, collection infrastructure and operational space associated with existing retail properties.
Poland’s role in European distribution networks adds another dimension to the outlook. Its central location, extensive road infrastructure and established logistics industry provide opportunities for companies serving customers across several markets. However, competition for occupiers remains significant, and future investment decisions will be influenced by development costs, labour conditions and the availability of suitable facilities.
The anticipated expansion of online retail provides a positive underlying indicator for Poland’s logistics industry, but it does not guarantee a corresponding increase in newly occupied warehouse space. Much will depend on whether companies choose to expand their physical networks, consolidate existing operations or invest in technology that increases the capacity of current facilities.
For commercial property investors and developers, the emerging opportunity lies in understanding how distribution requirements are evolving. Buildings capable of supporting efficient operations, adaptable layouts and modern logistics technology may become increasingly attractive as retailers respond to a more competitive and demanding consumer market.
Poland’s online retail sector appears set for another period of growth, but its influence on commercial property will be determined as much by changes in supply-chain organisation and operational efficiency as by the overall increase in consumer spending.
