Wednesday, 16 September 2026
The Dutch economy maintained its expansion during the first half of 2026, with growth accelerating modestly in the second quarter as household spending, government expenditure and investment provided support. Manufacturing also improved during the spring, while inflation eased towards the end of H1. At the same time, weaker external conditions and persistent shortages of labour, housing and infrastructure continued to restrict the economy’s capacity to grow more rapidly. GDP increased by 0.3% during the first quarter compared with the final three months of 2025 before quarterly growth accelerated to 0.4% in Q2. Economic output during the second quarter was 1.3% higher than a year earlier.
Household spending became more supportive during Q2, increasing by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter. Consumers spent more particularly on cars, food, beverages and tobacco. Government consumption increased by 0.4%, supported partly by healthcare expenditure and public-sector wages, while fixed investment rose by 0.5%. Construction investment moved in the opposite direction and declined during the quarter. International trade also provided less support to quarterly growth. Exports of goods and services increased by 1.2% during Q2, while imports rose by 1.4%, reducing the contribution from external trade to an economy closely connected with European manufacturing, logistics and international distribution.
Monthly trade data nevertheless indicated continued overseas demand for Dutch products. Merchandise exports were 3.1% higher in June than a year earlier, while imports increased by 1.4%. Machinery, electronics and petroleum-related products were among the categories supporting export growth. Manufacturing also recorded a stronger performance during the spring, with production 4.6% higher in June than a year earlier after adjustment for calendar differences. Machinery manufacturing was among the stronger areas, although chemicals, food, electronics and several other activities recorded weaker results. Manufacturing production also declined by 1.3% between May and June, illustrating that the recovery remained uneven.
Consumer activity provided another positive signal towards the end of H1. Retail turnover increased by 2.9% in June compared with a year earlier, while the volume of goods sold rose by 2.5%. Non-food turnover increased by 3.1% and food retail by 2.5%, while online sales grew by 7.5%. Household consumption across goods and services was 1.7% higher in June than a year earlier after adjusting for price changes. Inflation moderated towards the end of the first half, with consumer prices 2.9% higher in June than a year earlier, down from 3.5% in May. Energy and motor fuels were still 6.0% more expensive than a year earlier and services prices increased by 4.1%, while inflation under the harmonised European measure stood at 2.5%.
The labour market remained tight despite signs of cooling. Unemployment declined from 4.0% in Q1 to 3.9% during Q2, while the number of unemployed people fell by approximately 17,000. Around 375,000 positions remained unfilled at the end of the quarter, 3,000 fewer than three months earlier, while the total number of jobs declined by approximately 8,000. There were around 95 vacancies for every 100 unemployed people at the end of Q2. Although the ratio has fallen from previous peaks, businesses continue to face recruitment difficulties, particularly in construction, logistics, technology and professional services.
Investment produced a mixed picture during H1. Fixed investment increased modestly during Q2, while investment in physical assets was 2.7% higher in June than a year earlier. Buildings and commercial road vehicles contributed to the increase, while investment in aircraft, machinery and ships declined. The June annual comparison was also influenced by an additional working day compared with June 2025. Financing conditions have become less restrictive than during the earlier high-interest-rate period, but physical constraints increasingly determine whether investment can proceed. The Netherlands faces substantial requirements for housing, infrastructure and energy capacity, while shortages of suitable development land, electricity connections and skilled labour can delay new projects.
The housing market continued to recover during the first half. Prices of existing owner-occupied homes were 4.1% higher in June than a year earlier and increased by 0.6% compared with May. Rising prices reflect continued demand alongside limited housing availability, while the structural shortage of homes remains one of the most significant constraints facing the Dutch economy.
For commercial property, the economic environment has become more supportive than during the period of rapidly rising interest rates, although performance varies considerably between sectors and locations. Improving manufacturing and continued export activity provide a favourable backdrop for industrial and logistics demand, while resilient household consumption supports retail. The Netherlands’ position as one of Europe’s principal distribution gateways continues to underpin logistics activity around Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Schiphol and the main transport corridors. However, the ability to secure electricity capacity is becoming increasingly important for industrial, logistics and data-centre development, giving sites with available power infrastructure a substantial advantage over locations where businesses face long waits for new connections.
The office market remains divided. High employment and continued activity in professional services support demand for workplaces, but hybrid working and corporate consolidation have changed occupier requirements. Modern buildings with good public-transport access, efficient operating costs and strong energy performance are therefore likely to remain better positioned than older offices in weaker locations. Retail property benefits from continued household spending, although service inflation and broader living costs remain risks to discretionary expenditure. The continuing expansion of online sales is also influencing physical retail strategies.
Public finances remain relatively strong compared with many European economies, although expenditure is increasing. The European Commission expects the government deficit to widen from around 1.6% of GDP in 2025 to approximately 2.5% during 2026, while government debt is forecast to increase from 44.4% to around 46.9% of GDP. Economic forecasts remain cautious despite the positive first-half growth figures. De Nederlandsche Bank expects GDP to expand by 0.8% during 2026, with inflation of 2.7%, followed by 2.3% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028.
The European Commission has a slightly stronger outlook, forecasting GDP growth of 1.0% during 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. Its spring assessment expects inflation of 3.2% this year and 2.5% next year, with unemployment averaging approximately 4.2% during 2026. Differences between the Commission and central-bank forecasts partly reflect different publication dates and assumptions concerning energy prices and international economic conditions.
The Netherlands entered the second half of 2026 with an economy continuing to expand but still facing substantial structural constraints. Household consumption strengthened during Q2, manufacturing improved during the spring and unemployment remained low. At the same time, international trade contributed less to quarterly growth, construction investment weakened and shortages of workers, housing and infrastructure continued to restrict expansion. For the property market, these conditions increasingly favour modern offices, well-connected logistics facilities, retail serving strong catchment areas and development sites with secured electricity capacity. The Dutch economy continues to generate real estate demand, but access to infrastructure, labour and energy is becoming as important to development prospects as the underlying pace of economic growth.
Source: CIJ.World Research & Analysis Team
