Wednesday, 9 September 2026
Poland’s real estate market will have to wait longer for another reduction in financing costs after the Monetary Policy Council left interest rates unchanged at its September meeting. The National Bank of Poland’s reference rate remains at 3.75%, maintaining the level in place since March.
The decision was widely expected, but its importance for property extends beyond the benchmark rate itself. After a substantial easing cycle that reduced the reference rate by a combined 200 basis points over the preceding 14 months, the pause raises the question of how quickly further monetary easing can proceed and when lower rates will translate into meaningfully cheaper financing for developers, investors and homebuyers.
Inflation has complicated that outlook. Annual consumer price growth accelerated to 3.4% in August, bringing it close to the upper boundary of the NBP’s inflation target range. Higher energy and commodity costs, geopolitical uncertainty, wage developments and fiscal policy are among the factors that could keep price pressures elevated. The central bank said future decisions would depend on incoming inflation and economic growth data, as well as developments in Poland’s external environment.
For commercial real estate, keeping the reference rate at 3.75% means that the improvement in debt costs seen during the previous easing cycle is unlikely to receive another immediate boost. Financing conditions are only one component of property pricing, but the cost of borrowing directly affects acquisition returns, refinancing calculations and the amount investors can pay while maintaining their target returns.
Developers face a similar calculation. Lower interest rates can reduce the cost of carrying land and financing construction, potentially improving the feasibility of projects that became difficult to justify when borrowing costs were considerably higher. A longer period without additional cuts may therefore encourage developers to remain selective about new schemes, particularly where construction costs, land prices or expected rents leave limited room for higher financing expenses.
The residential market is more directly exposed to monetary policy through mortgage affordability. The previous decline in Polish interest rates improved the financing environment for households, but a further increase in borrowing capacity now depends partly on whether monetary easing can resume. For residential developers, that makes the future direction of rates important not only for their own project financing but also for the purchasing power of potential buyers.
Investment markets face a more complex relationship. Further reductions in interest rates could eventually support transaction activity and put downward pressure on property yields, particularly if debt becomes cheaper and more investors return to leveraged acquisitions. However, lower benchmark rates alone would not guarantee yield compression. Rental growth, vacancy, financing margins, asset quality and investor perceptions of risk will continue to determine pricing.
The September decision therefore leaves Poland’s property market in an intermediate position. Financing conditions are substantially more favourable than before the easing cycle began, but the prospect of another rapid reduction in borrowing costs has become less certain as inflation risks increase.
For property investors and developers, the question is increasingly shifting from whether Polish interest rates will eventually move again to how long the current pause will last and whether the next move will actually be lower. Until that becomes clearer, investment and development decisions are likely to continue being based on today’s financing costs rather than expectations of significantly cheaper capital arriving quickly.
