Thursday, 16 July 2026
Poland’s economy continued to demonstrate resilience during the first half of 2026, supported by stable domestic demand, moderating inflation and continued industrial growth, although external trade and foreign direct investment remained more subdued than in recent years, according to the latest Macroeconomic Review published by the Polish Investment and Trade Agency (PAIH).
The report estimates that Poland’s gross domestic product reached PLN 3.65 trillion in 2024, with the economy expected to expand by 3.5% to 3.6% in both 2025 and 2026, broadly in line with forecasts from the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund. Preliminary data indicate that GDP increased 3.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting continued economic momentum.
The labour market remains relatively stable despite signs of a gradual cooling. Registered unemployment stood at 5.9% at the end of May 2026, slightly lower than in April but higher than the 5.0% recorded a year earlier. The number of registered unemployed reached 915,900, while average employment in the enterprise sector remained broadly unchanged from the previous month and was 0.9% lower than in April 2025. Average gross monthly wages in the enterprise sector increased 5.4% year-on-year in April despite a slight monthly decline.
Industrial production continued to expand. Sold industrial output increased 4.1% year-on-year in May and was 3.1% higher over the first five months of the year than during the corresponding period of 2025. After seasonal adjustment, industrial production rose 4.4% compared with May last year and 1.4% from April, suggesting manufacturing activity remained resilient despite weaker international demand. Growth was led by intermediate and investment goods production, while durable consumer goods continued to contract.
Inflation moderated further during the spring. Consumer prices declined 0.3% month-on-month in May while annual inflation eased to 3.1%. Producer prices increased 2.4% year-on-year, indicating that price pressures continued to ease after the elevated inflation experienced in previous years. Food prices were only 0.5% higher than a year earlier, while transport and household-related costs remained among the largest contributors to inflation.
Foreign trade remained broadly balanced but reflected softer international demand. Between January and April 2026, exports totalled PLN 532.8 billion, an increase of 3.3% compared with the same period of last year, while imports rose 2.9% to PLN 540.1 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of PLN 7.3 billion. The European Union remained Poland’s dominant trading partner, accounting for approximately three-quarters of exports and just over half of imports.
The report also highlights a moderation in foreign direct investment. According to National Bank of Poland data, inward FDI totalled PLN 56.5 billion in 2024, significantly below the exceptionally strong inflows recorded in 2022 and 2023. Nevertheless, the accumulated stock of foreign direct investment in Poland increased to nearly PLN 1.4 trillion, underlining the country’s continued attractiveness for international investors. Manufacturing remained the largest recipient of foreign investment, while services accounted for the largest overall stock of FDI.
Monetary policy remained unchanged during the period. Following its June meeting, the Monetary Policy Council maintained the National Bank of Poland’s reference interest rate at 3.75%, with the marginal lending rate at 4.25% and the deposit rate at 3.25%, reflecting a cautious approach as inflation continues to move towards the central bank’s target.
Poland also maintained investment-grade sovereign credit ratings from the three major international agencies. Moody’s continues to rate the country at A2 with a negative outlook, while both Standard & Poor’s and Fitch assign ratings of A-, with stable and negative outlooks respectively.
Overall, the latest PAIH review points to an economy that continues to outperform many European peers through steady domestic demand, moderate GDP growth and resilient industrial production. At the same time, slower foreign investment and a more challenging external environment suggest that maintaining competitiveness and attracting new investment will remain important priorities as Poland enters the second half of 2026.
