Thursday, 30 April 2026
Data from AXI IMMO indicates that office leasing activity in Warsaw declined in the first quarter of 2026, while limited availability in central locations continued to place upward pressure on rents.
Gross office take-up reached 130,000 sq m in Q1 2026, representing a 9% year-on-year decrease. Demand was concentrated in central zones, including the Central Business District, although no transactions above 10,000 sq m were completed during the quarter. This reflects a more cautious approach among occupiers when making long-term commitments. The IT sector accounted for 20% of total take-up, followed by business services at 13% and the financial sector at 12%.
Emilia Trofimiuk, Research Manager, Market Research and Analysis Department at AXI IMMO, said: “The year-on-year decline in occupier activity is visible in both gross and net take-up; however, this does not indicate a structural weakening of the market. The current result is largely due to the absence of large transactions and the continued high share of lease renewals and renegotiations.”
Limited Supply and Low Development Pipeline
At the end of Q1 2026, Warsaw’s modern office stock totalled approximately 6.28 million sq m. Around 40,000 sq m of new space was delivered during the quarter, largely in central locations.
Recent completions included Studio A (24,000 sq m) by Skanska, Vena (15,400 sq m) by Polski Holding Nieruchomości, and a refurbished office building at 26A Przemysłowa Street in Solec (3,500 sq m). At the same time, older and less efficient buildings continue to be withdrawn, keeping overall supply broadly stable.
Development activity remains limited. Approximately 120,000 sq m was under construction at the end of the quarter, marking a 46% year-on-year decline. The largest scheme underway is Afi Tower (50,000 sq m), part of the Towarowa 22 mixed-use project, scheduled for completion in 2028. No new office developments were launched in Warsaw during Q1.
Filip Kowalski, Associate Director, Office Agency at AXI IMMO, said: “Such low development activity means that the availability of modern office space, particularly in central Warsaw, will remain limited in the coming years. This factor is already influencing landlords’ rental expectations.”
Diverging Conditions Across Locations
At the end of March 2026, the overall vacancy rate stood at 9.5%, down 1.0 percentage point year-on-year. However, vacancy levels varied significantly between locations. In central areas, vacancy was 6.5%, compared with 12.2% in non-central districts.
Limited availability in prime buildings continues to support rental levels. Asking rents range between EUR 10.00 and EUR 28.00 per sq m per month, depending on location and building quality. In central, higher-specification buildings, rents start at around EUR 19.00 per sq m per month and can exceed EUR 30.00 per sq m per month on upper floors.
Trofimiuk added: “Warsaw is increasingly becoming a two-speed office market. In central locations, the supply of high-quality, prestigious office space is strengthening, with rents remaining high and expected to rise further. Outside the city centre, competition will be driven primarily by price, service charges and the quality of modernisation.”
Outlook
Despite the slower start to the year, leasing activity is expected to improve over the coming quarters. AXI IMMO forecasts that total take-up in 2026 could match or exceed 2025 levels, supported by ongoing negotiations and the anticipated completion of lease agreements.
