Polish construction firms become more cautious as September expectations weaken

Polish businesses entered the final part of the third quarter with a more cautious assessment of economic conditions, as confidence weakened or remained broadly stable across most sectors surveyed by Statistics Poland in September. Construction was among the industries recording a deterioration, while manufacturing continued to report the weakest overall sentiment.

Confidence among construction companies fell to -2.0 in September from -0.1 in August. The assessment of current conditions stood at -0.7, while expectations for the coming months were weaker at -3.3. Nevertheless, the overall construction reading remained above its long-term average of -3.6. Manufacturing declined to -5.8, wholesale trade dropped to +0.1 and retail moved slightly into negative territory at -0.2.

Conditions were somewhat stronger in transportation and storage, where the overall indicator increased to +1.6 from +1.1 in August. Companies assessed their current situation at +7.4, although expectations weakened to -4.3. Accommodation and food services experienced a much sharper deterioration in expectations, with its forward-looking measure falling to -23.8 and the overall indicator declining from +7.0 to +3.3.

Financial and insurance companies remained the most positive group surveyed, with their indicator increasing from +28.0 to +30.3, above the long-term average of +25.4. Information and communication also improved, rising from +9.9 to +11.4. Construction companies, meanwhile, appear reluctant to make significant staffing changes: 84.1% expected employment of relatively easy-to-replace workers to remain unchanged over the next three months, while 88.6% expected no change among employees considered more difficult to replace.

The September survey therefore points to caution rather than a sharp contraction in Poland’s construction and property-related industries. Construction confidence remains stronger than its historical average and logistics businesses continue to report positive overall conditions, but weaker expectations in both sectors indicate that companies are becoming more conservative about near-term activity while largely maintaining their existing workforce.