Monday, 24 August 2026
New-build housing markets in Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest continue to show substantial differences in price, taxation, construction practice and rental economics, making simple price-per-square-metre comparisons increasingly misleading for cross-border buyers.
A regional analysis prepared by Cordia argues that Bucharest and several Polish cities remain cheaper than Budapest on selected new-build measures, but that buyers also need to account for fit-out costs, VAT, rental income, land pricing and local market conventions before comparing potential returns. How the new-build housing markets in Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest differ – analysis.docx
Independent 2026 market data broadly supports the underlying conclusion, although several of Cordia’s individual figures require qualification.
In Budapest, Cordia put the average new-build price above HUF 1.9 million per sqm at the end of Q1 2026. Hungary’s central bank reports a slightly lower figure, with the average asking price of new homes in Budapest reaching HUF 1.85 million per sqm at the end of March. The MNB also reported a substantial increase in new housing supply, with 9,490 new homes available for purchase, the highest level in its series.
Warsaw remains Poland’s most expensive large new-build market, but here the type of price being compared matters. CBRE and Tabelaofert.pl put the average asking price of a new Warsaw apartment at PLN 19,358 per sqm at the end of Q1, up 6.4% year-on-year. Apartments actually sold during the quarter averaged a considerably lower PLN 17,449 per sqm. Newly launched projects averaged more than PLN 20,000 per sqm.
Cordia’s figure equivalent to roughly HUF 1.7 million per sqm therefore appears closer to the average price of apartments actually sold than to the average asking price across Warsaw’s entire new-build stock. Its broader observation that Polish new homes are commonly handed over unfinished is also relevant because buyers generally need to budget for interior completion before occupation or letting. How the new-build housing markets in Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest differ – analysis.docx
Bucharest still offers a lower entry price than Budapest on several comparable measures, although independent data indicate that new-home prices have already moved significantly higher. Crosspoint put the average price of new Bucharest units at approximately EUR 2,540 per sqm in March 2026, while Imobiliare.ro reported average new-apartment asking prices approaching EUR 2,500 per sqm earlier in the year.
By July, Imobiliare.ro’s index showed new apartments in Bucharest averaging EUR 2,617 per sqm, 12.5% above the previous year. The figures support Cordia’s view that Bucharest remains less expensive than some competing regional capitals, but they also demonstrate that the pricing gap is narrowing as Romanian residential values continue to rise.
The investment comparison becomes more complicated once rental returns are considered. Cordia estimates gross rental yields of around 4.5% to 6% in Poland and 5% to 6% in Bucharest. These ranges are plausible in current market conditions, but they could not be independently verified as uniform market-wide averages from a sufficiently comparable professional 2026 dataset. They are better treated as Cordia’s indicative estimates, with actual returns varying materially according to location, unit size, purchase price and operating costs. How the new-build housing markets in Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest differ – analysis.docx
That distinction matters because a relatively inexpensive apartment does not automatically provide the highest investment return. Warsaw combines high purchase costs with deep employment and rental demand, while cities such as Poznań offer lower entry prices. Bucharest combines lower acquisition costs with continued population and employment concentration in the capital, but investors face a different tax regime and market structure.
One area where the original analysis needs a clear factual correction concerns Romania’s VAT timetable.
Cordia states that Romanian VAT “returned to 21%” in August 2026. The 21% standard VAT rate actually took effect on 1 August 2025, not 2026. An exception allowed qualifying buyers who had entered into eligible purchase arrangements before the change to retain the previous 9% rate for homes delivered by 31 July 2026. From August 2026, that transitional window is effectively over for ordinary qualifying purchases. Romania’s tax authority confirms both the 21% standard rate and the transitional conditions.
Poland, by comparison, generally applies an 8% VAT rate to qualifying residential floor area up to 150 sqm, with the portion above the threshold subject to the standard 23% rate.
Hungary continues to offer a favourable reduced VAT regime for qualifying new residential development, although eligibility depends on the applicable project and transitional conditions. Cordia’s analysis uses a 5% rate for qualifying new homes, which remains broadly consistent with Hungary’s residential tax framework. How the new-build housing markets in Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest differ – analysis.docx
The different tax treatment has a direct impact on apparent price comparisons. In some markets prices are quoted inclusive of VAT, while elsewhere project marketing can refer to net values, making headline figures difficult to compare without first standardising the tax basis.
Cordia also argues that land accounts for a much larger proportion of development cost in Warsaw than in Budapest or Bucharest. The company says Warsaw’s land-cost component per sellable square metre is more than twice that of the other two capitals, while construction costs in Warsaw and Bucharest are around 25% to one-third lower than in Budapest. How the new-build housing markets in Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest differ – analysis.docx
These figures should be treated as developer-derived estimates rather than independent market benchmarks. They are directionally consistent with Cordia’s earlier published development-cost data, which also showed materially higher residential land costs in Warsaw than Budapest, but a current independent 2026 dataset using exactly the same methodology was not available for verification.
The wider point remains valid: development economics differ considerably across the three capitals. Construction specifications, planning procedures, financing, land availability and taxation all influence the final price paid by buyers.
The original analysis also contains one statement that should not be repeated. It says Poland is introducing energy-efficiency ratings for multi-unit residential buildings only in 2026 and describes the country as the last EU member state to do so.
That is incorrect. Poland has required energy-performance certificates for buildings and individual units in sale and rental transactions for years, with important amendments taking effect in April 2023. Polish legislation requires sellers and landlords to provide the relevant certificate to purchasers or tenants. The Ministry of Development explicitly described energy-performance certification in 2023 as an obligation that had already existed “for many years.”
Energy performance nevertheless remains increasingly relevant to residential values. Buyers across Europe are paying greater attention to operating costs, cooling, heating and overall building efficiency as energy prices and climate conditions affect household expenditure.
Cordia reports a particularly noticeable difference in cooling requirements between markets. The developer says air conditioning and effective cooling are increasingly expected in Budapest and Bucharest because of hotter summers, while the requirement is less pronounced in Poland, particularly in northern cities. How the new-build housing markets in Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest differ – analysis.docx
Amenities are also becoming a greater differentiator. New developments are increasingly incorporating shared workspaces, lounges and communal areas, reflecting a wider shift away from viewing apartments purely as individual units and towards the quality of the overall residential environment. How the new-build housing markets in Budapest, Warsaw and Bucharest differ – analysis.docx
Cordia also compares the CEE markets with Spain’s Costa del Sol, where it reported an average price of EUR 7,220 per sqm in March for the segment it follows. That figure should not be interpreted as the average price across the whole Málaga or Costa del Sol residential market.
Idealista put the average asking price across Málaga city at EUR 3,898 per sqm in March 2026, while prices in the luxury markets of Marbella, Benahavís and Estepona can reach approximately EUR 6,000 to EUR 9,000 per sqm or considerably more in individual prime locations. Cordia’s EUR 7,220 figure is therefore credible for selected new-build or higher-end Costa del Sol stock, but not as a general market average.
Taken together, the comparison shows why cross-border residential investment cannot be reduced to a league table of headline apartment prices.
Budapest carries higher new-build values but benefits from a mature capital-city rental market and favourable VAT treatment for qualifying development. Warsaw combines expensive land and relatively high apartment prices with one of Central Europe’s deepest employment and rental markets, although buyers normally need to fund interior completion separately. Bucharest remains comparatively accessible but has experienced rapid price growth and now operates under a significantly higher standard VAT regime.
The same apartment price can therefore represent very different economics once taxes, finishing costs, rents, financing, operating costs and eventual resale liquidity are included.
For international buyers, the most meaningful comparison is not simply what one square metre costs. It is the total cost of acquiring and preparing the property, the income that can realistically be generated, the tax treatment and the depth of demand when the owner eventually wants to sell.
That produces a more complex picture than headline prices suggest, but also a more useful one for investors assessing increasingly diverse residential opportunities across Central and Eastern Europe.
