Tuesday, 21 April 2026
The European Union’s population is projected to shrink significantly over the coming decades, with a marked shift towards older age groups, according to the latest projections from Eurostat.
The EU population is expected to fall by 11.7 percent between 2025 and 2100, equivalent to a decline of around 53 million people. After reaching an estimated 451.8 million in 2025, the population is forecast to grow modestly in the short term, peaking at approximately 453.3 million in 2029, before entering a long-term downward trend to around 398.8 million by the end of the century.
The projections are based on assumptions of gradual convergence in fertility, life expectancy and migration patterns across member states.
Alongside the overall decline, the structure of the population is expected to change significantly. The share of younger people is set to contract, with those aged 0–19 projected to fall from around 20 percent of the population in 2025 to 17 percent by 2100. The proportion of working-age people is also expected to decline, dropping from 58 percent to around 50 percent over the same period.
In contrast, older age groups will account for a growing share of the population. Those aged 65–79 are expected to increase slightly, while the proportion of people aged 80 and over is projected to rise sharply, from 6 percent to 16 percent.
Current demographic patterns already reflect an ageing society, with relatively low birth rates and longer life expectancy shaping the population profile. By 2100, these trends are expected to intensify, resulting in a smaller and significantly older population.
The shift has broad implications for labour markets, public finances and social systems, as the balance between working-age individuals and retirees continues to change across the EU.
