Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Poland’s economic outlook showed a modest improvement in October 2026 as manufacturing companies reported an increase in new orders, although concerns over business finances and operating costs continued to weigh on expectations. The Leading Economic Indicator (WWK), compiled by the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC), increased by one point compared with September, reaching 177.1 points. Despite the monthly improvement, the indicator has not fully recovered from earlier declines, suggesting that the prospects for stronger economic growth remain uncertain.
The October reading reflected an improvement in three of the indicator’s eight components, while four remained broadly unchanged and one deteriorated. The main contribution came from manufacturing orders, which had shown limited signs of recovery in previous months. However, the increase was relatively small, and the latest survey results suggest that industrial businesses remain cautious about their prospects.
Companies reporting declining orders continued to outnumber those experiencing an increase. The difference between the two groups narrowed to seven percentage points in October, compared with eleven percentage points in September. Although this represents an improvement, the balance remains negative, indicating that weaker demand continues to affect a larger proportion of manufacturers than those benefiting from additional business.
The strongest improvements in new orders were reported by producers of computers and electronic equipment, pharmaceutical manufacturers, and companies involved in petroleum refining and coke production. These industries contributed to the more favourable October reading, although BIEC cautioned that higher product prices may have influenced some responses. The underlying survey measures companies’ assessments of orders rather than the physical volume of goods requested, meaning that an increase in reported order values does not necessarily represent equivalent growth in production requirements.
Expectations for the coming months remain less encouraging. Businesses have not reported a comparable improvement in anticipated orders, with the latest responses suggesting that confidence in future demand has weakened. This difference between current activity and expectations raises questions about whether October’s improvement marks the beginning of a sustained recovery or reflects temporary developments in individual manufacturing sectors.
Financial conditions among industrial companies have also deteriorated. According to the research, manufacturers in the clothing, metals, mineral products and leather industries continue to experience prolonged financial difficulties. Businesses additionally report a weakening of their competitive position in international markets, with higher labour expenses, energy prices and raw material costs contributing to pressure on operating margins.
These developments have implications for Poland’s industrial and logistics property market, where manufacturing activity and business investment influence requirements for production premises, warehouses and distribution facilities. An increase in industrial orders can support demand for operational space, particularly where companies require additional manufacturing capacity or storage. However, the current figures do not establish that businesses are expanding their property requirements, and continuing financial pressures may discourage investment in new facilities.
For developers and investors, the difference between improving order activity and weak business expectations remains important. Decisions to develop or acquire industrial property depend partly on occupiers’ willingness to make longer-term commitments. Companies facing uncertain demand, higher operating expenditure or reduced profitability may postpone expansion plans or seek to use existing facilities more efficiently. The October indicator therefore provides some evidence of improving industrial conditions but does not yet demonstrate a broader increase in demand for commercial property.
Developments in Poland’s financial markets present a similarly mixed picture. The WIG index continued to rise during September and October, although its gains were considerably smaller than those recorded during the first half of 2026. The increase was also interrupted by occasional daily declines. While equity market performance provides an additional indication of investor sentiment, it does not necessarily reflect the financial position of individual industrial companies or their willingness to undertake new investment.
The latest BIEC assessment points to a Polish economy showing limited signs of improvement rather than a firmly established recovery. Stronger manufacturing orders have contributed to the October increase in the leading indicator, but weaker expectations, financial difficulties and pressure on international competitiveness continue to present risks. For the industrial property sector, the direction of manufacturing demand and companies’ ability to finance expansion will remain important considerations as businesses and investors assess opportunities heading into 2027.
