Wednesday, 6 May 2026
Rising geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation risks and worsening housing affordability were among the main concerns raised during a panel discussion organised by Association for Real Estate Market Development (ARTN) focused on the outlook for the Czech economy and property market.
The debate brought together leading Czech economists, including Jan Bureš from ČSOB, Petr Dufek from CREDITAS Bank and Jaromír Šindel of the Czech Banking Association.
According to the participants, the Czech economy is entering a period of increased uncertainty driven by external geopolitical pressures, energy market volatility and structural imbalances in the housing sector.
Economists highlighted the Middle East situation and risks to global energy supply chains as one of the main inflationary threats. They warned that disruptions linked to oil transport and commodity markets could feed through into transport, manufacturing and consumer prices across Europe.
“Geopolitical tension can act as a trigger for a new inflationary wave. It is not just about oil prices, but the entire chain of impacts – from production to transport to final prices for consumers,” said Petr Dufek, Chief Economist at CREDITAS Bank.
While inflation in the Czech Republic has moderated in recent months, economists cautioned that price growth could accelerate again next year, potentially exceeding 3%.
Analysts also warned about the risk of stagflation, a scenario combining weaker economic growth with rising prices.
“Geopolitical shocks are typically stagflationary in nature – they push prices up, but at the same time they hamper economic activity. This is a very unpleasant combination for economic policy,” said Jan Bureš, Chief Economist at ČSOB.
Housing affordability was identified as one of the country’s most pressing structural problems. Economists noted that property prices have continued to outpace household income growth over a long period, making home ownership increasingly difficult for middle-income households.
According to the speakers, many households are no longer able to finance the purchase of a standard apartment without taking on significant financial strain.
“Real estate prices have been growing faster than incomes in the long term. This is a structural problem that will continue to deepen without fundamental changes on the supply side,” said Jaromír Šindel, Chief Economist at the Czech Banking Association.
Although the Czech mortgage market has shown signs of recovery, economists said this alone would not resolve affordability challenges unless housing supply increases significantly.
“The recovery of mortgages in itself does not solve the affordability problem. If the housing supply does not increase, the pressure on price growth will continue,” Šindel added.
The discussion also focused on rising construction costs, with economists pointing to delayed impacts from higher energy prices on building materials and industrial production.
“Expensive energy is reflected in the prices of building materials with a delay, but their impact in the economy persists all the longer,” Bureš said.
Beyond the domestic market, economists warned that Europe faces a number of longer-term structural challenges, including energy dependence, higher defence spending requirements and reliance on imported strategic resources.
“Europe will have to address its own structural weaknesses. Without this, it will be difficult to return to dynamic growth,” Dufek concluded.
