Thursday, 11 December 2025
The Future Inflation Index (WPI), which signals expected movements in consumer prices several months ahead, did not change in December compared with November, according to the latest data. The index has shown virtually no movement for four consecutive months, reflecting a period in which inflation has been steadily declining and moving closer to the National Bank of Poland’s target.
Analysts note that both global and domestic conditions are contributing to price stability. Weak international economic activity has helped keep commodity prices and global demand in check, while slower wage growth in Poland in recent months has eased pressure on household spending, reducing the likelihood of a renewed demand-driven rise in inflation.
Recent surveys of consumer expectations show a clear shift in sentiment. The share of people anticipating price increases in the coming months fell by 6.5 percentage points from October. The number of respondents expecting prices to rise as fast as before—or faster—declined, while more people expect slower price growth. Although consumer expectations tend to mirror recent inflation trends and have limited predictive accuracy, they play a role in spending behaviour. Lower inflation expectations often translate into more cautious purchasing decisions and reduce the tendency to buy in anticipation of further price hikes.
Business sentiment, however, has moved in a slightly different direction. In the latest GUS survey, manufacturing companies reported a modest increase in their expectations for future price changes. For the first time in nearly a year, the share of firms planning price increases exceeded those planning reductions, by 3.5 percentage points. Higher expectations were most common among pharmaceutical producers, electronics manufacturers, and makers of machinery, equipment and transport goods. Some of these anticipated changes are seasonal, such as price adjustments in medicines or certain electronic products. Others may reflect early signs of rising investment demand.
Some firms producing computer equipment also reported upward price pressure linked to a sharp drop in supply and rapidly rising RAM prices—a development partly driven by global investment in artificial intelligence hardware. Despite these pockets of pressure, producer prices overall have been in a strong downward trend for more than two years. Economists note that even a modest improvement in demand may prompt companies to consider raising prices, but this does not necessarily mean such increases will be passed through to consumer goods.
Commodity markets have shown little volatility, with prices generally stable for nearly two years. The IMF’s commodity index rose by 3.5% over the past three months but remains close to its average level for this period. Energy commodities continue to show downward trends, while metals and food commodities remain broadly stable. Geopolitical tensions and subdued global growth have limited the conditions for sustained increases in commodity prices, with the main exceptions being gold and silver, which have benefited from higher demand during periods of uncertainty.
