Wednesday, 29 April 2026
Poland’s labour market is showing signs of weakening demand, although this has not yet translated into higher unemployment registrations.
The Labour Market Index (WRP), a forward-looking indicator of unemployment trends, declined by 1.7 points in April, marking the second consecutive monthly drop. The decrease follows a temporary increase recorded in February. Meanwhile, the registered unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.1% in March, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than a year earlier.
The recent movements in both the index and unemployment figures reflect a combination of economic conditions and regulatory changes introduced in 2025. Analysts note that these factors continue to affect comparability of the data in the short term, although their influence is expected to diminish over time.
One of the main drivers behind the decline in the index is the reduction in the number of vacancies reported to public employment offices. Recent changes in the reporting system, including the transition from the Central Database of Job Offers to the ePraca platform, have also affected how vacancies are recorded. Although the number of job offers rose sharply month-on-month in March, it remains significantly below last year’s levels, by around 45 percent. As a result, official vacancy data may not fully reflect underlying labour demand.
Alternative indicators suggest a more gradual slowdown. The Job Offer Barometer, based on online listings, has recorded a continued decline in job postings since April 2025. The decrease is most visible in manual occupations, although demand in this segment remains relatively higher than in others. A modest increase has been observed in roles requiring scientific or technical qualifications, albeit from a low base.
Flows from unemployment into employment remain relatively stable. In March, the number of people leaving unemployment due to taking up work was unchanged compared to the previous month and around 10 percent higher than a year earlier. However, the relationship between job placements and public employment services remains difficult to assess due to limited data transparency.
At the same time, inflows into unemployment have not increased significantly. New registrations rose slightly on a monthly basis in March but were still below the level recorded a year earlier. This suggests that recent legislative changes have not yet resulted in a noticeable increase in the number of registered unemployed.
Business sentiment also remains cautious. Surveys from Statistics Poland indicate that more companies continue to assess their financial situation negatively than positively and are hesitant about expanding employment. Layoffs attributable to employers declined slightly month-on-month in March.
Overall, the data point to a labour market where demand is softening, but without a corresponding rise in unemployment so far.
Source: BIEC
