Sunday, 1 February 2026
The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI), which tracks short-term expectations for economic activity, increased by 3.8 points in January 2026 compared with the previous month. The rise was driven mainly by improved assessments of the overall economic outlook and company prospects, growth in the M3 money supply, and continued favourable conditions on the stock market.
The most notable change was recorded among managers in the manufacturing sector, who reported a marked improvement in their views of both the general economic situation and the outlook for their own companies. While negative assessments still outweighed positive ones, the gap narrowed significantly—from 10.5 percentage points in December 2025 to 2.6 percentage points in January 2026.
This improvement stands in contrast to other survey indicators. Data show no recovery in new orders, with the pace of decline in orders even accelerating. One explanation may be stronger-than-expected sales results in December 2025, which appear to have influenced expectations at the start of the year. The highest levels of optimism were reported in industries that recorded relatively strong December sales, including manufacturers of computers and electronic equipment, food producers and pharmaceutical companies.
At the same time, companies’ financial assessments did not improve. According to the January survey conducted by Statistics Poland (GUS), negative opinions on firms’ financial conditions deepened, with the balance falling from around minus 9.9 points in December to approximately minus 11.5 points in January. This suggests that the more positive sentiment regarding the overall economic situation is not yet supported by higher turnover or profitability.
Monetary data for December showed a sharp increase in the M3 money supply. In real terms and after seasonal adjustment, M3 rose by 3.3% month on month and nearly 10% year on year. The increase was mainly driven by higher deposits held by companies and households. This development is partly attributed to elevated bonus payments to employees at the end of 2025, which temporarily increased corporate and household liquidity. Analysts note that this effect is likely to be temporary rather than a sustained trend.
Market sentiment has also been supported by the ongoing positive performance of the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which has remained relatively strong for almost three years. Despite occasional short-term fluctuations, there are currently no clear signs of a reversal in this trend.
Source: BIEC
