Tuesday, 13 January 2026
The Future Inflation Index (WPI), which anticipates changes in consumer goods and services prices several months ahead, declined by 0.4 points month on month, signalling a continued easing of inflationary pressures heading into January 2026. Most components of the index point towards further disinflation, with only consumer and business inflation expectations contributing to potential upward pressure on prices.
Disinflationary trends remain firmly entrenched in the real economy of Poland and its external environment. Global commodity prices have been broadly stable for the past two years, with a mild downward trend. Price declines have been most visible in energy commodities, while food prices have remained largely unchanged. According to market experts, these conditions are likely to persist into 2026.
Currency dynamics are also supporting price stability. The zloty has remained stable against both the euro and the US dollar and is currently at its strongest level in almost three years, reducing the cost of imports and easing inflationary pressure from abroad.
Producer price data continues to show no tangible pressure to raise prices. While surveys indicate that managers in the manufacturing sector are increasingly considering price increases, these intentions have not yet translated into actual pricing decisions. Inflation expectations among manufacturing firms have risen for a second consecutive month, with the share of managers planning price increases now exceeding those planning reductions by nearly six percentage points, up from 3.5 points a month earlier.
The inclination to raise prices is strongest among smaller companies and is particularly visible in the pharmaceutical and chemical sectors. A growing share of machinery and equipment manufacturers is also signalling potential price increases, likely reflecting rising investment activity. Despite these signals, producer price inflation remains negative, with average annual PPI in deflationary territory for more than two years.
Household surveys also show a moderate increase in inflation expectations. The proportion of consumers anticipating faster price growth has risen, while the share expecting slower growth has declined. Those expecting price increases at a similar pace remain unchanged from the previous month. Analysts view this uptick as temporary, potentially linked to seasonal price increases ahead of the Christmas period or higher consumer spending distorting perceptions.
At the same time, households report an improvement in their financial situation and express a willingness to increase spending over the next 12 months. While supportive of consumption, this trend could pose a risk to the durability of low and falling inflation in 2026 if demand strengthens more rapidly than supply.
Source: BIEC
