Wednesday, 27 August 2025
The “Market Growth Projections” panel discussion held at CEDER 2025 aimed to shed some light on the implications of the current political events and potential economic shifts, and the outlook for market growth and investment. Moderated by Andrei Văcaru, Head of Capital Markets CEE at iO Partners, the discussion highlighted a sense of caution mixed with underlying optimism about the market’s long-term potential.
Aurelia Luca, Executive Vice President Operations Hungary and Romania at Skanska, articulated the challenge represented by the uncertainty surrounding the Romanian presidential elections, stating, “What we miss is predictability. […] We need […] to wait and understand what would be the impact on the market”. This lack of a clear direction leads to a “wait and see” sentiment amongst investors. Anca Merdescu, Head of Investments at Square 7, part of M Core, added some nuance to the sentiment by quoting an article: “When you live in a permanent crisis situation, like we are, I think, witnessing for the last few years, waiting for stability is like waiting for a train that never comes. And there is also a cost in waiting, that’s clear”.
Beyond political outcomes, potential changes in the taxation system are widely anticipated due to Romania’s credit risk and deficits. Vlad Dragoescu, Director, CEE Head of Portfolio Management at Revetas Capital, warned of the short-term economic impacts: “Whatever is happening on Sunday [May 18th] will give us a mid- to long-term pathway for Romania. But on the short run, regardless what’s happening […] still we’re going to have fiscal changes, we’re going to have consumption compression. […] So, we need to be prepared”.
He further expressed his opinion that these changes, coupled with reduced liquidity from banks prioritising lending to the state, could lead to increased finance costs and pressure on margins for landlords and tenants, potentially resulting in distressed assets.
However, several panellists emphasised that uncertainty also presents opportunities for investors. Joao Saracho de Almeida, Managing Director at Solida Capital Europe, suggested avoiding over-analysis of potential scenarios, highlighting the “incredible adaptability” of “the human and business factor”. He believes that “whatever will be the decision on Sunday, I’m sure Romania will continue on a growth path”, and that “in moments of more turbulence, there is the opportunity to make the best deals”. Francisc Peli, Founding Partner at PeliPartners, echoed this, advising, “In times of uncertainty, you don’t have to be idle because that’s where you miss opportunities”. Miroslav Tavel, Managing Partner at OPC Holding, acknowledged the “short-term uncertainty” but stressed their “long-term strategy” and strong belief in the Romanian market. He pointed to Romania’s advantages such as cost, land availability, new tenant entry, and underserved secondary cities, which offer “plenty of opportunity”.
