Tuesday, 28 October 2025
Poland’s leading economic indicator recorded a modest improvement in October, suggesting that the country’s economy may be edging out of a prolonged period of stagnation. The Leading Economic Situation Indicator (WWK), published monthly by Statistics Poland (GUS), rose by 1.1 points compared with September, ending three months of flat performance.
The increase, however, has yet to translate into sustained optimism. Four of the eight sub-components that make up the composite index improved in October, but GUS analysts caution that none show a clear upward trend.
Industrial order inflows—one of the key measures of business activity—rose slightly compared with the previous month, both domestically and abroad. Yet overall volumes have remained largely unchanged for almost a year, and companies with shrinking order books still outnumber those reporting growth by about 14 percentage points. Among the 22 manufacturing industries surveyed, only producers of computers, electronic and optical goods have recorded a consistent rise in demand since early 2025.
The lack of a clear rebound in orders has kept the financial situation of manufacturing companies virtually unchanged. Managers report that profitability has neither improved nor deteriorated over the past year, reflecting a cautious operating environment shaped by rising costs and muted demand.
Business leaders continue to view high labour costs, economic uncertainty, and tax burdens as the main barriers to expansion. According to GUS’s October survey, 57% of respondents cited labour costs as their most pressing challenge, followed by 43% pointing to macroeconomic unpredictability and 40% mentioning fiscal pressures.
On the capital markets, the Warsaw Stock Exchange’s WIG index gained slightly in October, although it remained below its August peak. The benchmark has nonetheless been trending upward for more than a year—currently the only indicator in the WWK showing a sustained positive pattern.
Economists describe the situation as a painstaking recovery: measurable progress in sentiment indicators, yet fragile and easily reversible without a stronger rebound in industrial demand. For now, Poland’s growth outlook remains stable but subdued, with businesses adapting to a climate defined more by caution than by confidence.
Source: BIEC, GUS and Warsaw Stock Exchange data.
