Tuesday, 21 October 2025
The Polish housing market is at a turning point. While the supply of new apartments remains high, the number of new projects entering development is steadily declining. This signals a maturing and consolidating market increasingly shaped by updated building codes and evolving regulatory frameworks. The coming period is expected to bring notable shifts in both construction activity and buyer behaviour as developers adapt to stricter standards and changing demand dynamics. What lies ahead for Poland’s residential sector will depend largely on how these emerging trends and policies interact to redefine the pace and character of housing development in the years to come.
Zbigniew Juroszek, President of the Management Board of Atal
Currently, the housing market in Poland is characterised by stability. The level of supply is high, but it may gradually decrease. Since spring, we have been observing an increase in customer activity on the primary market. Further interest rate cuts should contribute to the continuation of this trend. Investors may also return to the market, encouraged by the currently better purchase conditions and the declining attractiveness of other, relatively safe assets (record gold prices, lower interest rates on deposits and bonds).
However, significant price reductions will not be possible due to other important factors that have a strong impact on the housing market, including: stricter technical and environmental requirements, new regulations, e.g. concerning the construction of shelters, or the still lengthy permit process (against the backdrop of planning reform). Land prices also remain high, which has a strong impact on the price of new developments.
Tomasz Kaleta, Managing Director of Sales and Marketing at Develia
The housing market is stabilising after a period of earlier recovery. However, forecasts for the future are fraught with uncertainty, resulting, among other things, from the geopolitical situation, the regulatory environment, and demographic and migration changes.
The reduction in interest rates is a positive signal, which has improved the creditworthiness of households, but Poland still has one of the highest mortgage costs in Europe. Further interest rate cuts may stimulate demand.
In the 6-12 month perspective, the activity of developers in launching new projects will be of great importance, as it will translate into the level of supply and sales dynamics. According to the Central Statistical Office, from January to July this year, 3.9% fewer flats were completed than in the same period last year. The number of building permits issued and construction projects started also fell. In the longer term, this may lead to a reduction in supply and increased pressure on prices.
Due to high construction costs, land shortages and lengthy administrative procedures, we do not expect apartment prices to fall. A more likely scenario is stabilisation with a tendency towards gradual growth, especially in large cities and attractive locations. At this point, we forecast moderate increases, on average 1-2 per cent above inflation. A faster pace may occur when the relationship between supply and demand evens out.
The Polish property development market remains highly fragmented, which is why consolidation is a natural direction. At the same time, regionalisation is becoming increasingly apparent. Investment activity is concentrated around the largest urban centres, which further promotes consolidation in the industry.
In the coming years, it will also be important to improve the quality of both the product itself and the service. From Develia’s perspective, the priority remains to provide modern and functional flats that meet the changing requirements of buyers and new standards of living in cities.
Renata Mc Cabe-Kudla, Country Manager at Grupo Lar Polska
The supply of flats in Warsaw is significantly lower than in previous years, and annual demand is almost the same as annual supply. The housing market has changed in recent years and is becoming more professional. It is not an easy industry; it requires a very good understanding of customer needs, the law and municipal requirements. We assume that the professionalisation of the industry will continue.
Joanna Chojecka, Sales and Marketing Director for Warsaw and Wrocław at Grupa Robyg
The housing market in Poland is currently entering a new phase – one that is more mature, more balanced and more regulated. Although the supply of flats remains relatively high, the rate of growth of new investments is clearly slowing down. This is due to several overlapping factors, including rising construction costs, limited availability of land in the largest agglomerations, regulatory uncertainty and greater caution on the part of investors in an era of high interest rates and changing demographics.
The housing market in Poland will become more professional, mature, diverse and selective. It will be crucial for both developers and customers to adapt to the new conditions. Companies that are able to respond flexibly to changes and invest in quality and innovation will not only be able to survive this stage of transformation, but also use it as an opportunity for growth.
Piotr Dobrzyński, Head of Operations and Technical BPI Real Estate Poland – Builder
The residential market in Poland is entering a phase of maturity. We are seeing less dynamism in the number of new investments, but at the same time increasing professionalisation and a focus on quality. Consolidation in the sector means that developers with a stable position and experience, who are able to respond flexibly to changing regulations and customer expectations, are gaining an advantage. Factors related to sustainable development, energy efficiency and comfort of living will become increasingly important. I expect the premium segment to continue to grow in importance, which means that the market will be less mass-oriented, but more conscious and focused on long-term value.
Andrzej Gutowski, Sales Director, Ronson Development
The future of the housing market in Poland is moving towards gradual stabilisation and consolidation. We are currently observing a period of relative calm after earlier violent turmoil, which resulted, among other things, from confusion surrounding attempts to create government housing programmes and interest rate cuts. The market is maturing and becoming less susceptible to sudden price fluctuations. In addition, new regulations, such as the price transparency act, will have a stabilising effect on it.
In the near future, we can expect that some of the smaller developers, who grew mainly during the boom, will disappear from the market, leaving stronger, more stable entities that compete mainly on quality and service standards. High competition will mean that companies will focus on better apartment finishes, innovative solutions and comprehensive customer service, rather than competing solely on price.
Witold Kikolski, member of the management board of MS Waryński Development S.A.
The Polish housing market is currently entering a phase of maturation. Although the supply of flats is still relatively high, the rate of growth is clearly slowing down, due to both administrative restrictions and rising construction costs. In practice, this means that new supply will be more selective, with the best locations and projects that meet the real needs of buyers playing a key role.
Regulations are also of great importance – from the developer act, through energy regulations, to changes in parking standards. Each of these regulations affects the cost structure, investment standard and final price for the customer in different ways. On the one hand, this raises the bar in terms of quality, and on the other, it forces companies to be more flexible and professionalise their processes.
We expect demand to continue to evolve in the coming period. The institutional rental housing (PRS) segment will play an increasingly important role, the importance of sustainable construction and environmentally friendly solutions will grow, and technology will support the design and customer service processes. For companies such as Waryński SA, this is an opportunity to build a lasting competitive advantage and offer products that respond not only to current needs, but also to long-term development trends.
Damian Tomasik, President of the Management Board of Alter Investment
The housing market in Poland is maturing and a process of consolidation is visible. Companies that are able to operate in the long term, effectively raise capital and manage administrative processes are playing an increasingly important role. The supply of flats will remain relatively high, but its growth will be lower than during the boom years. The key factors will be the time it takes to obtain a building permit and the ability to refine land. In the coming years, we will see greater specialisation among developers and an increase in the importance of the PRS market, as well as further adaptation of the industry to environmental and energy efficiency requirements.
Anita Makowska, Senior Business Analyst at Archicom
Currently, we are seeing a large supply of flats in many cities. Warsaw and the Tri-City remain exceptions. Developers are therefore adjusting the pace of new investments to current demand. The market is thus naturally entering a phase of self-regulation, although the slowdown is so effective that a potential supply gap may appear as early as around 2027, assuming that no additional external factors such as new regulations, housing programmes or changes in credit policy arise. We expect lending to increase, especially in the context of interest rate cuts. However, it is not only financing that will be the main driver for the market, but also the conviction of buyers that prices have reached equilibrium and that purchasing a flat in the current conditions is a good decision.
Another interesting phenomenon is the ongoing consolidation of the sector, leading to the full professionalisation of the property market, which was lacking in Poland and which we have been working on as developers, agents, landlords and appraisers for at least two decades. All this makes buying property a safe choice, both for investors and those unfamiliar with the market. In Poland, real estate remains one of the main ways of investing financial surpluses, which will maintain stable demand in the coming years. At the same time, Poles are not abandoning their desire to own property. Today, there is room for them to realise their dreams in the right market conditions.
Andrzej Swoboda, Vice-President of the Management Board, CTE Group
The housing market in Poland is maturing and consolidating. The pace of new investment is slowing down, and stable, large developers are playing an increasingly important role. It is becoming more and more difficult for smaller companies to remain competitive, but companies with experience and competent management and supervisory staff are maintaining a strong and stable position in local markets.
Prices and construction standards are influenced by new regulations on energy efficiency and sustainable development, and alongside the traditional buyer market, the PRS segment, i.e. institutional rental, is becoming increasingly important. This model attracts investor capital and responds to the growing demand for rentals in large cities.
Source: dompress.pl
Photo: Moja Oszmianska, Grupo Lar Polska
