Poland’s Future Inflation Index signals continued stability

Poland’s Future Inflation Index (Wskaźnik Przyszłej Inflacji – WPI), published by the Bureau for Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC), remained unchanged in November, marking the third consecutive month without significant movement. The indicator suggests that inflationary pressures are stabilising around levels close to the National Bank of Poland’s medium-term target.

Survey data shows that consumer views on price developments have remained broadly consistent. Around 84% of respondents expect prices to continue rising, with roughly half anticipating that the pace of increases will remain similar to current levels. A slightly larger share than in the previous month now expects faster price growth, while fewer expect a slowdown. According to BIEC, a stable distribution of expectations may support steady household consumption as supply and demand adjust.

Industrial sentiment surveys indicate that businesses are increasingly cautious about further price increases. The share of firms planning price reductions has risen throughout 2025 and is now close to the share of firms planning increases. Larger companies show the strongest tendency to limit or reduce prices, while producers of durable consumer goods are more likely to consider price hikes.

Other indicators point to easing cost pressures. Capacity utilisation in industry has not increased, suggesting that fixed operating costs are stable. Slower wage growth and lower interest rates have also reduced labour and financing costs. On global markets, commodity prices have generally been falling or stable since the beginning of the year. The IMF commodity index rose slightly in October due to higher precious-metal prices, while energy and industrial metals continue to trend lower or remain steady.

The Polish zloty has strengthened against the US dollar in recent months, making dollar-denominated imports cheaper and limiting the scope for domestic producers to raise prices on goods competing with imports.

BIEC concludes that these factors collectively signal a period of reduced inflationary pressure heading into the end of the year.