Thursday, 12 March 2026
The Future Inflation Index for Poland, an indicator designed to signal changes in consumer prices several months in advance, increased by 0.5 points in March 2026 compared with the previous month. The rise was largely associated with the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which has contributed to a sharp increase in global oil prices.
Higher oil prices often affect a wide range of goods and services because energy costs are closely linked to production, transportation and supply chains. As a result, movements in the oil market can influence inflation expectations across the broader economy.
In the short term, analysts expect increased volatility in both energy prices and in the prices of goods that rely heavily on oil or are connected to supply chains in the affected region. Supply disruptions or the risk of reduced availability of key commodities typically trigger a range of reactions among market participants. These can include sudden shifts in demand, precautionary purchasing and speculative activity, sometimes extending to sectors that are only indirectly linked to energy markets.
Under such circumstances, economic forecasting becomes more difficult. Market behaviour following a supply shock can vary widely, and different scenarios, from temporary price spikes to longer-lasting inflationary pressures, remain possible.
Most of the statistical data used to calculate the Future Inflation Index, with the exception of commodity prices and exchange rates, does not yet reflect the most recent geopolitical developments. As a result, analysts caution against drawing strong conclusions from the current readings of the index. This limitation is particularly relevant for measures of inflation expectations among businesses and households, which are likely to adjust only after the effects of recent events become clearer.
Given the rapidly evolving situation, economists suggest that monitoring market reactions and geopolitical developments may currently provide a more reliable guide than attempting to interpret short-term indicators that have not yet incorporated the latest shocks.
Source: BIEC
