Consumers Scale Back Black Friday Spending as Retail Sector Faces Another Difficult Year

Germany’s retail sector is entering the crucial Black Friday and Christmas trading period under sustained pressure, as weak consumer sentiment, rising insolvencies and continued labour-market uncertainty weigh on household spending. According to Atradius, these reinforcing factors are expected to shape market conditions well into 2026.

Consumer indicators point to ongoing caution among households. The GfK consumer climate index is forecast at –24.1 points for November, a decline of 1.6 points compared to October, driven by falling income expectations, inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainty and fears surrounding employment stability. The HDE consumer barometer also fell in November to 95.57 points, underscoring reduced willingness to buy.

Nicole Bludau, Risk Services Manager at Atradius, notes that consumers are demonstrating increased price sensitivity, postponing purchases until discount campaigns and avoiding impulsive spending. Atradius expects Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales to reach around €5.8 billion this year, slightly lower than the €5.9 billion recorded in 2024, a figure that had already stagnated relative to 2023. Although the peak season will remain the strongest period of the year for retailers, it is not expected to act as a growth driver.

Despite significant consumer interest in discounts, an emerging shift is visible among retailers. While surveys from the German Retail Association indicate that nearly half of respondents intend to shop on Black Friday and one-third on Cyber Monday, more companies are choosing to refrain from deep price reductions. According to Bludau, an increasing number of retailers are adopting a “fair products at fair prices” policy to counteract ongoing margin erosion, especially at a time when personnel, energy and rental costs continue to rise.

Electronics and technology products are expected to dominate Black Friday demand again this year, followed by clothing. Atradius reports that the overall consumer sector has remained relatively stable despite the stagnating economic environment. However, several segments face considerable challenges. The home textiles and furniture industries continue to struggle after the peak seen during the pandemic, while the cosmetics trade faces strong competition from online channels. The situation remains difficult for traditional department stores, which are seeing declining footfall alongside continued online cannibalisation.

Looking ahead to 2026, Atradius expects only limited improvement. Despite government initiatives, including investment programmes aimed at infrastructure and climate neutrality, households will continue to feel the impact of rising health insurance contributions, persistently high electricity prices and increased costs for rent and food. Bludau emphasises that a meaningful easing of the situation will only occur once structural economic changes progress and consumption begins to recover, a development Atradius does not expect before 2027 at the earliest. Economic research institutes forecast Germany’s GDP to grow between 1.1 and 1.6 per cent in 2026, offering only modest support for hopes of a broader market rebound.